Never before has the FIDE Candidates seen such a situation: four title challengers facing each other in the final round of the three-week chess marathon. And leading them is a 17-year-old revelation: India's D Gukesh, who is within a win from triumphing at chess' biggest tournament.
Gukesh, the youngest competitor at the 2024 FIDE Candidates, is on the cusp of history as could become the first Indian since Viswanathan Anand to win the tournament. Chasing him is an elite pack: world #2 Fabiano Caruana, world #3 Hikaru Nakamura and world #7 Ian Nepomniachtchi.
What does Gukesh have to do to win the 2024 FIDE Candidates?
Beat Nakamura. A win over the world #3 will take Gukesh to an unassailable tally of 9.5 and make him only the second Indian to win the FIDE Candidates. Gukesh would also become the youngest-ever challenger for the World Championship in the history of chess.
The win would also award him a chance to take on defending World champion Ding Liren and present Gukesh an opportunity to become the youngest world champion in chess history, a record currently held by none other than Garry Kasparov [he was 22 when he first won the World championship].
Would a draw with Nakamura also work for Gukesh?
It will, as Gukesh is guaranteed a shot at the Candidates' title via a tiebreaker. If he draws with Nakamura, his tally will be nine points and he will face the winner of the Nepomniachtchi vs Caruana match. However, if Nepomniachtchi vs Caruana ends in a draw, then Gukesh will be crowned as the 2024 FIDE Candidates champion [since both of their totals will be 8.5 compared to Gukesh's 9].
A reminder of what the FIDE Candidates' Open category standings look like going into Round 14:
Gukesh (8.5)
Nepomniachtchi, Nakamura, Caruana (8)
Praggnanandhaa (6)
Vidit (5.5)
Firouzja (4.5)
So wait, how will this tiebreaker work?
The tiebreaker will see a switch in format from classic chess to rapid chess [a 15-minute game with increments of 10 seconds per move]. The two players who are tied will play two rapid games and the winner of those two contests will be declared the winner of the Candidates and subsequently face Liren for the ultimate prize.
���� @DGukesh leaving the venue of the #FIDECandidates after defeating ���� Alireza Firouzja (2760).
With only one round to go, the 17-year-old Indian Grandmaster is the sole leader with 8.5/13. pic.twitter.com/m4ZjuvkF1b- International Chess Federation (@FIDE_chess) April 21, 2024
What to expect from the Gukesh vs Nakamura clash?
The last time the two met in Round 6, Gukesh was playing with white pieces and they shook hands for a draw. However, the scenario is a lot different now: Nakamura, playing with white pieces, will need to give his absolute everything to remain in contention.
Which means Gukesh's defence will be tested, but he's no stranger to it. Back in Round 12, Gukesh tactfully employed the Nimzo-Indian - an ultra-aggressive defensive strategy - to bamboozle Nijat Abasov and snap up the win. The Indian teenager will have a trick or two up his sleeve, that's for sure.
At the same time, as five-time world champion Viswanathan Anand says - Nakamura could also play the slow game to force an error from Gukesh. "Nakamura can try many approaches. He can try the slow approach, which is basically torture to someone [Gukesh] who wants it over with," says Anand.
"Gukesh must have understood that he's this close and it's an understandable emotion that you want to get it over with. It's a well-known struggle in chess that when a result is desirable for you, you want it desperately. And sometimes that can produce mistakes. So in this case, the best approach for the opponent is just a non-forcing approach. When people say go all out, funnily enough, one of the best strategies is not to do anything special. You just keep the game going along. And that itself is kind of torture for the person who wants it over with," adds Anand.
Anand, the only Indian to win the FIDE Candidates, adds that Gukesh is in a tricky spot since he needs "only a draw."
"Usually, the kind of advice you give in these situations turns out to be something general. Something like, try to forget what's happening and play like you played the first 13. And, uh, good luck doing that! (laughs) Again, in this situation, everyone knows the right strategy, but it's almost impossible to do.
When you desperately need "only a draw" in the last game because you're not fighting for all the results on the board, but only one, then you know that the task is easier, but at the same time that itself can be a challenge."
What did Gukesh say?
Talking after his win over Alireza Firouzja in Round 13, Gukesh pointed at the fact that being the youngest competitor, at 17, has its pluses and minuses. "There are pros and cons considering my age and, you could say, lack of experience, but there are also some advantages. Like such a long tournament, it is easier to be focused at my age. There is a lack of experience, but I am trying my best."
Trying his best he is, now within a win of winning it all. Looking ahead at the game against Nakamura, Gukesh had little to say except "I guess I'll go with the same strategy and play a good game."
Looks like he's keen to let his chess do all the talking.
Where can I watch Gukesh vs Nakamura live?
You can watch the D Gukesh vs Hikaru Nakamura contest live on FIDE's YouTube channel. The action gets underway from 12am IST.