The NFL draft has become one of the biggest betting events on the sports calendar. As of Monday evening, there were over 80 different markets available to bet on at ESPN BET, including betting on each of the top 10 draft picks.
For bettors, the NFL draft offers a unique opportunity to bet on something that is almost impossible for sportsbooks to model. When a sportsbook posts NFL draft odds, it typically follows consensus mock drafts and move odds based on news and action. These odds are nowhere near as sharp as your typical NFL or NBA line, and there is often more value available in NFL draft betting than there is in betting on a normal game.
However, finding that value is often easier said than done. Here are some do's and don'ts for first-time bettors looking for action on the NFL draft.
DO: Follow mock drafts and insider reports
There is nothing more important to betting on the NFL draft than following draft news. In the weeks and months leading up to the draft, most odds moves can be directly correlated with news. Reports from league insiders such as Adam Schefter or team insiders about which players teams like can often move markets. Reputable mock drafts can often affect odds as well.
Find reporters that you trust, listen to what they have to say, and vet the news to see if there are betting opportunities based on that news. Not every piece of news is actionable, but many are, especially if multiple reporters are reporting the same thing. And some reporters and mock drafts provide more actionable information than others.
DON'T: Take every internet rumor as gospel
It is vital to vet the news and decide how much stock to put in each rumor and odds move. Every year, there are multiple rumors that come out before the draft from disreputable sources. Sometimes they are true. Most of the time they are not.
Leading up to the 2023 draft, Will Levis' odds to go No. 1 overall moved from 40-1 to 4-1 at many sportsbooks within hours of a Reddit post that said Levis was telling friends and family that he was going No. 1. He ended up falling to the second round.
However, in the previous draft, there were reports that the Houston Texans preferred CB Derek Stingley Jr. over Sauce Gardner, despite the fact that Gardner rated higher in most mock drafts. Stingley moved from 12-1 less than a week before the draft to be the favorite on draft morning, and those rumors turned out to be correct.
DO: Look for different ways to make similar bets with better odds
There are so many draft markets available, and every pick has a tangible impact on every other pick. If odds for one bet are getting steamed in one direction, perhaps there is another way to make the same bet with better odds.
For example, if you think the New York Jets will draft TE Brock Bowers at 10, look at the odds for Bowers to be drafted at 10 and to be drafted by the Jets. They may have different odds for essentially the same bet. You could also potentially bet Bowers under 12.5 or to be a top-10 pick to give yourself more outs, but those bets also incorporate different risks if the Jets trade down.
Sometimes you can also catch sportsbooks sleeping. If QB Jayden Daniels' odds to go No. 2 are moving significantly, maybe you can find value in who will be drafted No. 3, if it's not Daniels. Or maybe you can bet on the exact order of the top three or top four picks. So many draft markets are intertwined where one move can affect the market in more ways than oddsmakers realize immediately.
Plus, between line availability, line shopping and line movement, you can sometimes find ways to "middle" bets and give yourself a chance to win multiple bets without taking a lot of risk. If you take a player's draft pick over 9.5 and you also bet that player to be a top-10 pick, you can win both bets if that player is drafted exactly 10th. Or you can make correlated bets at longer odds for bigger paydays.
DON'T: Chase steam without a good reason
Draft odds can be extremely volatile and move quickly. If odds are moving quickly, try to understand why, especially in the days leading up to the draft. Often they can be linked to a report.
For example, last week Jayden Daniels' odds to go No. 2 crashed from -350 to -120 after reports that Daniels' camp was unhappy with how the visit with the Washington Commanders played out. Many insiders were saying that Washington was still leaning toward Daniels despite the reports. A few days later, his odds moved back to -350. If you thought that the odds should not have moved that much based on those reports, perhaps there was a buy-low opportunity. However, if you cannot identify a reason for the odds to have moved, then perhaps someone knows something you don't. In that case, you're better off sitting out than betting blindly into the market.
Last year, Will Anderson became the odds-on favorite to go second overall the day before the draft. Then, on draft day, C.J. Stroud's odds moved from the +500 range to the -2,000 range in several books until those odds were taken off the board. The last move proved to be the correct move, but if you had blindly chased the Anderson steam, you were left holding the bag.
DO: Be willing to lay juice in certain circumstances, especially close to the draft with high picks
While everyone likes long-shot bets, sometimes there can be value laying big prices in draft betting. If it is blatantly obvious a team is drafting a certain player, then it doesn't really matter what the price is. Betting a -5,000 favorite for the NFL draft is often safer than betting one for an individual game in which a player can get hurt or an unexpected result can happen. Sometimes with the draft, the answers to the test are out there.
However, don't assume you know everything. All it takes is one abnormal pick or unforeseen trade to shake up the draft. The New England Patriots could take a wide receiver at No. 3. Several teams could trade up or down. The Jets might not take a defensive player at 10, but if they trade up or down, the other team may.
DO: Remember that the GMs are making these picks, not you
One important thing to remember with the draft is that the general managers are making these picks, not you. You may think that Drake Maye is the best quarterback in the draft. That doesn't necessarily mean the Chicago Bears will take him No. 1 overall. Knowing the prospects helps, but your opinion ultimately does not matter. All that matters is who the teams prefer. Following the news is usually more important than scouting the players yourself.
DO: Stay within your bankroll!
The most important thing with betting, especially with the NFL draft, is to stay within your bankroll. Don't bet money you aren't willing to lose. You may think you know what will happen in draft day, but there is always risk involved betting on sports.