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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games

          Don't be afraid to deploy Walker Buehler in his season debut Monday against the Marlins. AP Photo/Gregory Bull
          • Todd Zola, FantasyMay 6, 2024, 03:18 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Welcome back!

          Monday's 10-game slate features the season debut for one starting pitcher, plus a return to action for another who has been sidelined since Opening Day.

          Let's begin out west where Walker Buehler will take the hill in an MLB game for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2022. Buehler pitched in six rehab games, five coming with Triple-A Oklahoma City. He fanned 21 over 19 2/3 total innings, walking eight and allowing three homers. It's best to ignore his 4.15 ERA and 1.62 WHIP during rehab and instead focus on velocity and pitch count. His fastball sat a couple ticks lower than pre-injury, but even though velocity usually returns quickly -- often a bit higher than before -- Buehler touched 95 mph, so there isn't any concern.

          Buehler threw 86 pitches in his penultimate rehab outing, then finished with 75 in his last effort, indicating he shouldn't be on too strict of a pitch limit. Command and control are usually later to return, which is supported by his high walk and home run totals. Even so, considering Buehler's debut is a home date with the offensively challenged Miami Marlins, there is no reason to wait. Let the righty loose.

          What you may have missed on Sunday

          • Braxton Garrett was initially slated to make his 2024 debut today, but the Miami Marlins decided his pitch count wasn't built up enough, so he'll aim for 75 pitches in a final rehab outing today, then return over the weekend. There is good news for the Marlins, however, with Jake Burger expected to be activated in advance of tonight's road date with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

          • The Texas Rangers announced that Wyatt Langford will be sidelined for at least three weeks due to a right hamstring strain. The rookie was batting only .224/.295/.293. He had just one steal, and his only home run was an inside-the-parker. Ezequiel Duran should absorb most of the DH playing time, with Josh Smith and Davis Wendzel each garnering an uptick.

          • The San Francisco Giants lost another backstop with backup catcher Tom Murphy needing an IL stint for a left knee sprain. Primary catcher Patrick Bailey remains on the 7-day concussion list after taking a foul tip off his mask. Blake Sabol and Jakson Reetz will share responsibilities behind the plate.

          • Steven Kwan is slated to be placed on the 10-day IL today thanks to a sore hamstring. The Cleveland Guardians are expected to promote top prospect Kyle Manzardo to fill Kwan's roster spot. Manzardo should see regular playing time as the DH, with Estevan Florial seeing more time in the outfield. Manzardo earned his first trip to the show after sporting a .303/.375/.642 line with Triple-A Columbus. If he's productive, Manzardo could stay with the Guardians after Kwan returns.

          • There's more bad news on the starting pitching front with the San Diego Padres placing Joe Musgrove on the 15-day IL due to right elbow inflammation. Randy Vasquez is expected to take Musgrove's spot in the rotation, which will be Tuesday.

          • Ryan Pepiot took a 107-mph comebacker off his leg yesterday, forcing an early exit from the interleague tussle between Tampa Bay Rays and New York Mets. The Rays reported that Pepiot's X-rays were negative -- remember, that's positive news -- though his status for this weekend's series with the New York Yankees is still unclear.

          • Dodgers closer Evan Phillips needs an IL visit for a right hamstring strain. He incurred the injury on Friday night and, on Sunday, the severity was reported to be a Grade 1 strain. Daniel Hudson is the logical choice to step in as closer.

          Everything else you need to know for Monday

          • Justin Steele is also scheduled to return to action on Monday. The Chicago Cubs southpaw was diagnosed with a Grade 1 hamstring strain incurred while fielding a bunt on Opening Day. After a series of bullpen sessions, Steele made one rehab start, yielding six hits and three runs in 3 1/3 innings, but he struck out four while issuing just one free pass. The San Diego Padres visit Wrigley Field for the opener of a three-game set. Even with new leadoff man Luis Arraez strengthening the Padres offense, Steele is safe to start Monday and a lock in weekly leagues since the Cubs have a road series with the Pittsburgh Pirates nest weekend.

          • Through their first 34 games, the Oakland Athletics surprisingly have won half of them. However, it has been due more to pitching and defense than hitting, as the club is still in the bottom third of the league in terms of runs per game and wOBA -- and that's even after scoring 20 runs against the Marlins on Saturday. Andrew Heaney (8.4% rostered) and the Texas Rangers play the first of a four-game set in The Coliseum. Heaney has been uneven so far, but he's coming off his best effort and is in play as a spot starter for this AL West affair.

          • Betting tip of the day: Luis Castillo has averaged at least one strikeout per inning in all six of his starts. His last four outings have each been at least six innings with two lasting seven frames. Tonight, Castillo and the Seattle Mariners open a road series with the Minnesota Twins. The Twins are fanning at the ninth-highest clip in MLB. Even though they've been striking out less lately, Castillo is on a roll, and the odds are favorable to take Castillo for over 7.5 strikeouts (+145).

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Monday