Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic. Today's contributors are ESPN Fantasy's Kyle Soppe and Joe Kaiser and ESPN Stats & Information's Matthew Wittyngham.
We have to talk about Yogi Ferrell. Working on a 10-day contract with the Dallas Mavericks, he racked up 9 points, 1 3-pointer, 7 dimes and 2 steals in 36 minutes against the San Antonio Spurs Sunday and followed that up with 19 points, 3 3s, 3 dimes and 4 steals against the Cleveland Cavaliers Monday. Should fantasy owners sign him to a proverbial 10-day contract or is this just a fluke?
Kyle Soppe: I'm signing him because ... why not? Exactly what do you have to lose here? The Mavericks have beaten the Spurs and Cavs on back-to-back nights, but let's see a raise of hands for those who think this is a good basketball team ... I don't see any hands. This team is going nowhere right now. Deron Williams (toe) and Wesley Matthews are both past their prime years and averaging more than 30 minutes a game, not exactly how you'd expect a bad team to act, since it would be in their best interest in both the short and long term to see what they have in their younger pieces.
We've begun to see a bit of a transformation of late with Seth Curry playing at least 34 minutes in four straight games, and I'd expect the 23-year-old Ferrell to get a similar chance to show his worth. For Dallas, what's the downside? He struggles and you lose games (move up in the lottery) or he succeeds and you know what your backcourt looks like moving forward. Ferrell has played 74 minutes over the last two days and that's not a mistake: give him a shot and enjoy the ride!
Joe Kaiser: Ferrell's production is impressive, but so much of it is due to the heavy workload (37 MPG in the last two games) he's been given with Williams out of the lineup. While it's a surprise to see Ferrell filling in as the starting point guard and getting more minutes than veteran Devin Harris, Ferrell's role will be significantly reduced as soon as Williams returns. That could happen as soon as Wednesday against Philadelphia, so I hope you enjoyed the Ferrell wave, because he probably won't hold fantasy value very much longer.
Matthew Wittyngham: I think fantasy owners need to keep an eye out on the status of William and Harris. Williams has missed eight games, Harris has missed 16, and Dallas normally runs with three guards. Though a small sample size in two games, Ferrell has posted an 18.1 PER, second-best on the Mavs behind Dwight Powell. And he did this going up against San Antonio, which ranks in the top five in limiting starting point guards scoring (15.9), steals (1.8) and 3-pointers (0.64), among all other categories.
His performance against the Cavaliers wasn't too shocking, as Kyrie Irving is still figuring out his way defensively, posting a -1.23 defensive real-plus minus, 58th in the NBA among qualified point guards. Marcelo Huertas and José Calderón have better DRPM than Irving. His next couple of games are tricky. He has Portland twice, and Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum handle themselves both offensively and defensively. But he also faces Philadelphia, which, though on a winning streak, does not have defensive stalwarts at the guard position, and Denver, which, from a daily fantasy perspective, gives up nearly 40 Draftkings points a game to opposing PGs, 3 more points than the next worst.
So if you're in desperate need for a point guard, he is a solid option, given the Mavs' injury situation. But if Deron comes back and Harris makes more of a return to form, don't be surprised if his minutes are minimal.