Click here for weekly rankings and start/sit recommendations
Read below for the fantasy basketball Forecaster
In weekly transaction leagues, the schedule is one of the most important factors in determining how to fill out your fantasy basketball lineups. All fantasy teams have a hierarchy of player calibers, with a set of "best players" surrounded by a cast of "lesser but still productive players" from which to draw your weekly starting lineup.
All things being equal, a manager would start their best players every week and fill out the rest of their lineup based on things such as matchups. All things, however, aren't equal.
The schedule changes the bottom line, because teams can play a different number of games, against a different caliber of opponents, with different breakdowns of home vs. road, back-to-backs, rest nights, etc. All of these things matter, and as I've seen this season, they often matter more than a player's caliber.
For example, would you rather get two games of a great player at 35 minutes per night against tough competition, or four games of a lesser player at 30 minutes per night against high-paced, weak competition? When looking at it quantitatively, it's surprising (to me) how often the correct answer is actually the lesser player -- yes, based on schedules, sometimes even star players should sit for a week.
Thus, below, we have the Forecaster, which provides a scheduling and matchup tool to help you make better-informed lineup decisions for the upcoming week.
We also take your weekly prep to another level with my weekly projection rankings. Here, you'll find my top-200 weekly rankings, based on ESPN standard points-league scoring, so you can compare players to determine which players to start, sit, stream or drop for the week ahead. I also provide several typical starters whom you might want to sit, and several bench/free agents whom you might want to stream.
Without further ado, let's check out the Forecaster.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's season-to-date and past-10-games statistics, opponents' numbers in those categories and performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled, as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1 to 10 for that team's weekly schedule.
The week ahead
In the first full week after the All-Star Game, 20 teams play four games and 10 teams play thrice. There aren't any huge outliers in terms of number of games, no one-, two- or five-game schedules, which concentrates player value quite a bit and makes schedule quality more important in the rankings. Of course, since only a third of the league plays fewer than four games this week, any team with only three games is at a disadvantage.
The Warriors play four games, so it isn't surprising that they are the only team to score a perfect 10 in the Forecaster this week. The Lakers and Pelicans scored 9s, while the Rockets and Timberwolves scored 8s on the Forecaster, with all four teams playing four games. Put an asterisk next to the Pelicans' high score, though, as their season-long stats are built on having Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday available the majority of the time, and with both on minutes restriction, their team offense likely will suffer.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Mavericks, Suns and Kings all play three games and managed only 1s on the Forecaster. The Wizards also play three games, and scored a 3. Of this group, the Kings are playing the best of late and may be slightly better than their score.
Check out my weekly player rankings to see my take on which players may be worth starting or sitting due to the combination of schedule and injuries.