It's often said that it's better to be lucky than good, but in the Premier League, it's best to be lucky and good. That has certainly been the case for some of the best options in our fantasy Premier League game thus far, like Anthony Martial, Raheem Sterling and Ryan Fraser. But what about the players who haven't quite delivered the final product their performances deserve?
Having reached the halfway point of the season, I have picked a team of 11 very good players for whom things have just not worked out thus far. Though there are different reasons that these players have not performed as well as expected, the one thing they share is that they should be better in the second half of the season. So, without further ado, here is the "Unlucky XI."
Roberto Firmino, Liverpool, Tier 1 forward
The Brazilian forward had the best season of his career in 2017-18, recording personal bests of 15 goals and seven assists. One cannot have a "career year" every year -- otherwise, it wouldn't be one! But Firmino's fantasy struggles go beyond regression, right into the realm of unluckiness. The Liverpool man has scored four goals thus far, underperforming his expected goals by two. That expectation lines up with recent trends, as he had exactly six goals and three assists at this stage in each of the past two seasons. It's not just the finishing that's been unfavorable for Firmino, either. He's posting his highest chances created per 90 since joining the club while simultaneously posting his lowest assist per 90. A return to the mean should see Firmino's goal and assist tallies rocket upward sooner rather than later.
Raul Jimenez, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Tier 1 forward
It seems odd to say that Jimenez has been unlucky considering he's a first-year Premier League player who is already ranked in the top 25 overall, but here we are. He has managed that ranking largely on the back of his shots and shots on target, both of which rank sixth or better in the league, yet the goals just haven't followed. In fact, players who match or exceed Jimenez's 22 shots on target have averaged about 10 goals thus far this season ... Jimenez has only five. If you added those five extra goals, the Mexican striker would be the fifth-best player in our game. You obviously can't just add 50 points to a player and not expect him to launch up the overall rankings, but this goes to show just how good Jimenez has been this season. With a little turn in luck, he could be even better as the calendar turns to 2019.
Christian Eriksen, Tottenham Hotspur, Tier 1 midfielder
Eriksen has been unlucky with fitness, having already failed to start as many matches this season (five) as he has in any full Premier League season. Obviously, this has caused his counting numbers (particularly chances created) to plummet. The Danish talisman has never finished worse than ninth in chances created since joining the Premier League, yet he currently ranks 18th. He's not been at his best even when he's been on the pitch, averaging just 2.29 chances created per 90 (about one fewer than his three-year average). With Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min beginning to hit their stride and Eriksen's rate of chance creation surely due to improve, the Danish international should be in line for even more assists in coming weeks.
Paul Pogba, Manchester United, Tier 1 midfielder
Pogba's two-goal effort on Boxing Day went a long way toward aligning his underlying stats and fantasy production, but the best could still be yet to come. He currently sits third in shots on target and has the most among midfielders with 26. Jimenez and Marko Arnautovic are the only other players in the top 15 in shots on target to have as few goals as Pogba. Among fantasy midfielders, you have to drop down to Theo Walcott (14 SOT) to find someone who has scored fewer goals than Pogba. Not only does that point toward more goals in the near future for the Frenchman, but the appointment and tactics of interim manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer should help him accomplish that as well. Every goal Pogba has been a part of this season, in both the Champions League and Premier League, has come when starting in a 4-3-3 formation. In that formation, Pogba averages 17.5 points per game; otherwise, his average is just 6.8. The fact that Solskjaer has come in and used this formation in both of his matches as manager should lead to us seeing the best of Pogba moving forward.
Mesut Ozil, Arsenal, not currently in the ESPN game
Things haven't exactly gone to plan for either Arsenal or Ozil since he signed a huge contract extension in February. He's recorded just two assists since then, which has come as a shock to those who remember him leading the league in that category just three seasons ago. While he has not been able to recreate the magic of his 2015-16 season, the German midfielder has set up at least 11 percent of Arsenal's goals in each season since he joined the club. This season, he has recorded only 3 percent of their assists. There have obviously been fitness issues and questions surrounding his work rate, but odds are that Ozil will find his form at some point in the second half of the season, and you'll want to select him when he does.
Willian, Chelsea, Tier 2 midfielder
Only Eden Hazard has created more chances this season than Willian, yet the latter has recorded only three assists. While some of that is just bad luck, the low number could also partly be attributed to just how wasteful Alvaro Morata was with the chances Willian provided, managing to put just 20 percent of them on target and scoring none. Realizing this, manager Maurizio Sarri has decided to replace the Spaniard with Hazard up top. While this has yet to yield any meaningful improvement to Willian's weekly fantasy haul, having a player who can actually finish his chances will only help the Brazilian going forward. He's also been just a touch unlucky in scoring his own goals as well, being one of just three players with more than 10 shots on target but fewer than three goals. Add all of that up and you've got a player set to have a very strong second half if things start to turn his way.
James Maddison, Leicester City, Tier 2 midfielder
Like with Jimenez, it feels unfair to complain about a player who has done so well in his debut season. After only 19 Premier League matches, the former Norwich man has already established himself a valuable option in the second midfield tier. That said, he has been short-changed a bit in terms of assists. Only two players with 40 or more chances created have seen a lower rate of their chances converted into goals than Maddison (7 percent), and we just discussed one of them (Willian). This misfortune is backed up by expected assists (3.79) as well, which shows that the Leicester man should have had at least one more assist by now. Combine that with the fact that the Foxes' striker, Jamie Vardy, is trailing two goals behind his expected goals, and it paints an unsustainably unlucky picture, making both of them big bounce-back candidates in 2019.
Lucas Digne, Everton, Tier 2 defender
The left-back job at Everton has been passed on from Leighton Baines to Digne, and it remains just as fantasy relevant as ever. Digne currently leads the league in accurate crosses, and that is usually a fantastic omen for a player's potential points total. During the past three seasons, the player who finished first in completed crosses had at least eight assists and ranked top 15 in the league in that statistic. This season, Digne has assisted just twice, ranking 53rd. Now, it would be difficult to expect the Frenchman to record the six assists required to fall in line with that historical trend, but even a mild return to the mean would lead to him establishing himself as one of the best fantasy defenders not just in his tier, but overall.
Cesar Azpilicueta, Chelsea, not currently in the ESPN game
Another year, another position change for Azpilicueta. The Spaniard has played every position along the backline since joining the club, and he has now moved back to right back under new manager Maurizio Sarri. Typically, in fantasy, center backs get more passes and goals, while full backs tend to get more assists. Oddly enough, Azpilicueta bucked that trend last year when, playing exclusively in the center, he recorded his highest-ever number of assists (six). That, combined with his excellent passing and tackle rates, would have led to Azpilicueta finishing as a top-10 player in our game last season. This season, he's posted his best rate of chances created per 90 since his debut campaign, and his best year defensively since 2015. If Azpilicueta can get a few more big chunks of points from goals and assists, he should be back in our game -- and your lineup -- in no time.
Nicolas Otamendi, Manchester City, not currently in the ESPN game
Otamendi would have been the best defender in the game last season, yet, at time of writing, he sits 168th this year ... so, what happened? Otamendi is arguably the least lucky player on this list, as his only crime was playing at a club that also happens to have two younger, and probably better, players at his position in John Stones and Aymeric Laporte. This reality has limited the Argentine defender to just eight starts on the season, but the performances are still there. He is averaging just .14 fewer points per game than Laporte, who currently ranks top 10 in our game and second in his tier. Obviously, you cannot pick Otamendi right now, but just keep in mind that he is an injury away from reclaiming his place in the City defense and re-establishing himself as a viable fantasy option.
David De Gea, Manchester United, Goalkeeper
Last season, Manchester United kept more clean sheets than any other Premier League side (19) and conceded the second-fewest goals in the league. Just one year on and the defense in front of De Gea has crumbled, having already conceded more goals in the first half of this season (31) than they did all of the last (28). This leaky defense has forced him into making considerably more saves, which come in handy at three points per action, but they've come at the cost of his clean sheets. It turns out this trade-off has not exactly been a positive for the Spanish goalkeeper, as he finished first at his position last season and has now dropped all the way down to 13th in 2018-19. Whether these problems can be laid at the feet of now-former manager Jose Mourinho remains to be seen but, frankly, it's unlikely things will get worse for De Gea and the Manchester United defense.