We've finally reached the first international break of 2019. If you play fantasy soccer, you can take a breather ... unless you're a Major League Soccer fan.
MLS does not stop entirely -- there are five games this weekend, so you'll still need to assemble a fantasy roster. But it's a good time to take a step back and think about long-term strategies.
Most weeks, you'll probably spend the majority of your time deciding whom to pick at Tier 1 forward and Tier 1 midfielder, which is natural. These are the biggest stars in the league, and generally deliver the most fantasy points. However, your decisions there should be pretty easy this week, given the abbreviated schedule. I'll share my picks with you on Thursday, as usual.
When it comes to picking players at the other positions, there are two general approaches. To use a baseball analogy, you can swing for the fences, or play it safe and settle for a single or a double.
I try to find a balance each week, doing some of both -- depending on the players available and teams' matchups, of course.
For example, this coming weekend I'll be picking Daniel Royer as my Tier 2 midfielder. I had him on my team last week, and he hit it out of the park. Royer had a goal and an assist in the New York Red Bulls' 4-1 victory over the San Jose Earthquakes.
Royer's performance was even better than that, though. He also took five shots and had four chances created, finishing with 26.1 fantasy points.
This was Royer's 2019 MLS season debut, but I didn't consider him a huge risk last week, and I certainly don't consider him one now. Royer scored 13 goals last season, and had scored three goals in four CONCACAF Champions League games in late February and early March.
I'm going to take a different approach at Tier 3 midfielder this week, however. There are eight options available, and those eight players combined have scored only one goal through the first three weeks of the season.
Roland Lamah scored that goal, in FC Cincinnati's 1-1 draw with Atlanta United two weeks ago. But Lamah will not be on my fantasy team this week.
Why? Well, Lamah scored that goal against Atlanta on his only shot of the game. In fact, he's taken only two shots in three games, despite starting all three and playing the full 90 minutes in two of them. Take away the goal and Lamah is averaging only 5.2 points per game.
Fellow Tier 3 midfielder Eduard Atuesta is averaging 8.8 points per game, without a goal. He did pick up an assist in LAFC's season opener, but that was a pleasant surprise. Atuesta had only one goal and two assists in 26 appearances last season.
Atuesta is a central midfielder who knits things together for LAFC. The 21-year-old Colombian made only 16 starts last season but was 18th in the league in passes completed per 90 minutes, at 59.8. So far this season, Atuesta has started all three games and is tied for 10th in the league in passes completed, averaging 64.3 per game. That equals 6.43 points per game -- more points via passes completed only than Lamah is averaging in total.
I don't see a likely goal scorer in Tier 3 this week, so I'm going with Atuesta. He hasn't taken a single shot in three games and has only four chances created. Yet despite all that, Atuesta's still averaging more points than Lamah, and almost twice as many when you factor out the goal.
(FC Dallas' Carlos Gruezo is similar to Atuesta -- a central midfielder who's taken only two shots in three games and has only one chance created but is third in the league in passes completed and averaging 11.5 points per game. But Gruezo has been called up for international duty by Ecuador.)
So pick your spots when it comes to choosing your Tier 2 and Tier 3 midfielders. In Tier 2, many times you'll see a player who looks well capable of scoring a goal that week ... take him! You want your fantasy team to have a decent upside.
But you also want your fantasy team to have a decent floor. So don't be afraid to choose a player who rarely shoots, let alone scores, but consistently produces via peripheral categories. Picking up eight or nine points from your Tier 3 midfielder, as opposed to three or four, could make a big difference in terms of winning or losing your fantasy matchup.