With the calendar turning from 2023 to 2024 and nonconference play transitioning into league action, it's not going to take long to separate real from fake, and teams with staying power from teams that simply had fluke starts.
A lot of those gaudy records from November and December upstarts will begin to fade. We see it every year. LSU opened 2022-23 with 12 wins in its first 13 games -- before winning just two the rest of the season. New Mexico was the last team in the country to lose a game last season, but the Lobos dropped eight of their final 11 games and didn't make the NCAA tournament.
Through two months of this season, we have now seen three power-conference teams that were picked 10th or below in their league's preseason poll now ranked in the top 25: BYU, Oklahoma and Ole Miss. The Cougars are ranked in the top 10 -- and even the top three -- in predictive metrics, Oklahoma has just one loss to North Carolina and Ole Miss is one of three unbeaten programs remaining.
Will any of these teams be the UConn, or the Purdue of the 2023-24 season? Neither the eventual national champions nor the No. 1 team for much of the campaign was ranked in the AP preseason Top 25 last season. Either scenario seems like a stretch at this point, so could they otherwise be like Kansas State? The Wildcats were picked last in the Big 12 last season before earning a 3-seed in the NCAA tournament and making a run to the Elite Eight.
To get a better feel for the aforementioned trio, we reached out to coaches who have faced them this season. Are they for real? Or simply having a good run of form?
BYU Cougars
Record: 12-1
Key results: Home win over San Diego State; neutral-court win over NC State in Las Vegas; loss at Utah
Preseason ranking: 13th in the Big 12
Why they're for real: It was difficult to figure out the expectations for Mark Pope's team entering the season. The Cougars were coming off their worst season in almost 20 years, and moving from the West Coast Conference to the Big 12 while bringing many players back. Being picked just above the cellar of arguably the best league in the country didn't seem far off.
Instead, they beat San Diego State -- last year's runner-up -- in the second game of the season, and have rattled off 12 wins in their first 13 games.
"Not to be clichéd, but they're older and more mature," one opposing coach said. "They care about winning. They're selfless. They're sneaky physical. They play with an arrogance and a chip on their shoulder."
The biggest key for BYU, which is currently ranked No. 3 at KenPom and No. 8 in the BPI, has been its 3-point shooting and passing. The Cougars shoot 38% from 3, No. 23 nationally, but they're top five in both assist rate and 3-point rate.