As the All-Star break approaches, the most surprising division leader remains the Houston Astros. But the Tampa Bay Rays, who led the AL East by 1.5 games through Thursday, are a close second.
There may not have been a consensus AL East favorite heading into the season, but given the Rays' radical overhaul -- over the last 12 months, Tampa Bay has traded away David Price, Wil Myers, Ben Zobrist, Yunel Escobar, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Joyce, Ryan Hanigan, Joel Peralta and Cesar Ramos, and in return has primarily received prospects who have not yet contributed at the major league level -- the opinion was near-unanimous that it wouldn't be Tampa Bay. Only 1 of 88 ESPN experts picked the Rays to win the division before the season. But the AL East has not played out according to the preseason script, beginning with the disappointing Red Sox. The Rays do not lead the East by default, however, as every other team in the division is comfortably above .500.
To overcome its many personnel losses and contend this season, Tampa Bay needed its younger players to break out and become the team's new stars. And several players have done so, most notably starting pitcher Chris Archer. Archer has increased his strikeout rate by nearly three strikeouts per nine innings compared with last season. He has reduced his walk rate by more than a walk per nine. He's also throwing more innings per start and is on pace to exceed 200 innings for the first time in his career. According to FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Archer is tied with Chris Sale as the second-most-valuable starter in baseball, trailing only Max Scherzer.