FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- Discussing their prospects for 2024, the New York Jets sound like they're reading from a car's side-view mirror. To paraphrase:
We are closer than we appear.
"It's really not as far away as it looks right now," general manager Joe Douglas said at the end of the season.
"We need a couple of more pieces ... but we're close," quarterback Aaron Rodgers said.
Those words -- "we're close" -- are echoing at One Jets Drive. Close, of course, is relative. The Jets (7-10) finished four games behind the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins in the AFC East and seemingly miles behind the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs, the AFC finalists.
The Jets' hopes for a quick turnaround hinge, in large part, on Rodgers' surgically repaired left Achilles, but there will be other challenges. To compete with the big dogs, they must:
Add another playmaker to balance the passing attack
Wide receiver Garrett Wilson eclipsed the 1,000-yard receiving mark for the second time -- a minor miracle, considering the level of quarterback play -- but it was painfully clear the offense suffered without a dynamic No. 2 option. It allowed opponents to focus their coverage on Wilson.
There were 10 games in which Wilson drew the No. 1 cornerback for a vast majority of the snaps, often resulting in a reduction of targets, based on nearest-defender metrics from Next Gen Stats. In theory, that should've created opportunities for others, but no other wide receiver or tight end produced more than 77 receiving yards in a game. Even with Breece Hall contributing as a receiver out of the backfield, the offense was comatose for long stretches. The Jets were 2-6 when Wilson was held to 50 receiving yards or less.
One of their offseason goals is to add another weapon, presumably at receiver. (It's worth noting Georgia's Brock Bowers, one of the top tight end prospects in recent years, could be available with the 10th overall pick.) Cornerback Sauce Gardner, responding to a fan on social media, lobbied for Calvin Ridley or Tee Higgins, two of the top wideouts on the free agent market.
Wilson said he likes the current group, but "another infusion, someone that brings different things to the table and gives the defense someone to worry about, would be beneficial to everyone, not just me. It's something I'm excited to see."
Secure the edges in pass protection
The Jets' left tackles (mainly Mekhi Becton) allowed 15.5 sacks, tied for second most at the position in the league, per Next Gen Stats. Their right tackles (Max Mitchell, Carter Warren and Billy Turner) allowed an NFL-worst 14 sacks. This would have to improve for any quarterback, let alone a 40-year-old coming off a major injury. There are ways to camouflage weaknesses on an offensive line, especially the interior, but it's much harder to do that at tackle, especially in the Jets' system. They leave their tackles in more one-on-one situations than most teams, placing a premium on pass-protection skills.
With Becton, Turner and Duane Brown headed to free agency, and with Mitchell considered a depth piece, the Jets are looking at a near-total rebuild at the position. They need one, possibly two starting-caliber tackles, depending on how they view Warren, who recorded the second-highest pass-block win rate among the six who saw time at tackle. He did it in limited action (383 snaps) as a rookie, so it would require a leap of faith. Guard Alijah Vera-Tucker also can kick out to tackle, providing another option.
The prevailing sentiment around the league is that the Jets will add two tackles, via free agency and the draft. The free agent tackle pool is shallow, but the draft contains at least two top-tier prospects, Joe Alt Joe Alt (Notre Dame) and Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn State).
Upgrade the quarterback insurance
As one longtime personnel executive said of Zach Wilson, "How do you go with him again?" They probably won't. From all indications, the Jets will revamp the depth chart under Rodgers, acquiring a veteran backup and perhaps drafting a quarterback in the middle or late rounds. If Wilson goes, they'd have no young quarterbacks in the pipeline.
The Jets got burned when Wilson, drafted No. 2 overall in 2021, was forced into action in Week 1. While the offensive struggles weren't all his fault (see: pass-protection issues in the prior item), he finished 30th out of 30 qualified quarterbacks in Total QBR (30.5). After three disappointing years, the relationship probably has accumulated too many scars to continue.
Securing a top-tier backup won't be easy because the best candidates crave opportunity, and the only playing time with the Jets will come through injury because everybody knows Rodgers never will get benched. Gardner Minshew probably will be the top backup in the free agent market, but a more realistic option might be Jacoby Brissett, 31, who has a career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 51-23. Wilson, with 600 fewer attempts, has a 23-25 ratio.
Beef up the interior on defense
Any criticism of the defense qualifies as nit-picking -- it ranks in the top third in most major categories -- but the interior needs some reinforcements. Pro Bowler Quinnen Williams is the only proven defensive tackle under contract.
Solomon Thomas, Quinton Jefferson and Al Woods are pending free agents, with Jefferson (both groins) and Woods (Achilles) coming off surgery. Jefferson, who made a career-high six sacks, said he's open to re-signing and expects to be ready for OTAs. Thomas, too, is interested in a return.
Some will point to the run defense as the Achilles' heel of the unit, based on the ranking in yards allowed (26th), but that's skewed because opponents ran 517 times, third highest. In truth, the Jets were a top-10 unit against the run in the key metrics, but they lagged in one area: They allowed 3.9 yards per carry on inside runs (14th). Which brings us back to the original point: The interior needs an infusion of talent.
Coach up the little things
It's hard to quantify coaching performance (other than wins and losses), but there were red flags in areas that point to possible deficiencies. To be fair, they should be viewed through the prism of not having Rodgers for virtually entire season.
The Jets were outscored in the first quarter 100-47, the league's third-worst differential, which raises questions about preparation. They led the league in total penalties (150) for the fourth-highest yardage total (945), which suggests an issue with discipline. They finished with the third-worst turnover margin (minus-7), which undermines the concept of complementary football.
Coach Robert Saleh (18-33) has a lot to clean up, with most of the problems stemming from the offense. He already has made one staff change, replacing running backs coach Taylor Embree with Tony Dews, formerly of the Tennessee Titans. Saleh might make another change or two, but the two most important coaches on offense -- coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and passing-game coordinator Todd Downing -- are staying put.
Some players, most notably Rodgers and Gardner, have suggested the team needs to do a better job of minimizing distractions and handling elevated expectations. As Rodgers declared at season's end, they need to "flush the bulls---." Part of the head coach's responsibility is setting the agenda and creating perception. At least the Jets have experience with the Rodgers-generation attention.
"It happened once," Gardner said, "so we know how to come into this next season, for sure."