The annual ESPN Fantasy football summit meetings that occur the week after the NFL draft came and went in bucolic Bristol a few days ago. One of the main reasons I always look forward to them, as we massage rankings as a cohesive unit and aid in the production of the special ESPN The Magazine fantasy issue, is because I learn so much. Any analyst in any business that claims they know everything, that isn’t interested in evolving with the times and trends, is mistaken. So not only do I get to spend quality time with colleagues and meet new ones, we’re all sharing facts and opinions and several of my beliefs certainly were altered based on the bountiful degree of information provided.
While we don’t spend 45 minutes debating every last quarterback slot or who the No. 37 running back should be, there were some excellent, passionate conversations. Several of them were vital in shaping this season’s strategies and rankings -- a critical and noteworthy exercise considering the breadth of the industry and the millions of people interested. After all, there were myriad smart people in the packed room during two full days, several specializing in varying degrees of innovative statistical analysis, others coming from the scouting mind at the pro and college level, and people like me who helped us decide which appetizers we should order at the staff’s unity-building dinner. Hey, there are no unimportant roles in the team-oriented ESPN fantasy crew!
As you start to consider -- or perhaps you’re already there, in early May -- what this season’s drafts could look like and how you’d like to attack them, here are what I view as the most interesting debates from our summit. It’s almost like being there with us, but you can take your shoes and socks off and not worry about repercussions or dirty looks. And yes, I kept my shoes on.
The actual No. 1: I cannot recall during a decade of summits spending more than a few minutes on who should be the first player off the draft board, because it’s generally so obvious. Sure, Minnesota Vikings lightning rod Adrian Peterson flopped a year ago, but we weren’t necessarily wrong about placing him at the top. This year, strong and reasonable cases were made for more than a few running backs, perhaps five in all and for roughly an hour, and when we collectively voted -- it’s the democratic way, after all -- the winner was Green Bay Packers star Eddie Lacy, even though I can’t recall passionate support for him. He just survived the vote in a way, and is likely regarded as the safest of the group, with the highest floor. Basically, the Peterson backers, pointing out skills, motivation and the fact he’s simply more special than anyone else, dealt with others concerned about more missed games and his age. And there were positives and negatives thrown out there for the others as well. We did agree on something with little debate: This is the year to have the fifth or sixth overall pick, not the first one.
One game sure does matter: There seemed clear consensus that if Pittsburgh Steelers star Le’Veon Bell wasn’t forced to serve a suspension the first few weeks of the season, he would have been ranked first, and then we’d debate No. 2. But Bell and his fantasy owners will be paying the price for last season’s transgressions when he violated the league’s substance abuse policy. As of now, the suspension is three games, though I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if it drops to two games. I was pretty much alone in my initial belief he should remain No. 1 overall, regardless of three games or two. I was a bit stunned when half the room -- and many vocal people were in it -- admitted if the suspension were to be reduced by a game, then Bell would suddenly vault back to their top spot. For all of us, there is clearly a line to be drawn about how many missed games forces a change in our commitment to Bell. For me it’s not at three games. No teams are on bye those weeks, I can fill in capably and perhaps even choose Bell’s backup in DeAngelo Williams. I feel like Bell is the best player, he’s healthy and in his prime and I can be patient and still qualify for the fantasy playoffs. Bell ended up our No. 2 player overall, though you’ll see several of my notable colleagues like Matthew Berry and Christopher Harris have him fifth. What’s your take?
The new rookie class: There’s rarely a shortage in rookie talk in the fantasy world, because these players enter the league to such glowing reaction and haven’t disappointed at the highest level yet. Geno Smith and Bishop Sankey, for example, have. No first-year quarterbacks pilfered starting range for standard formats, and there was clear delineation about which of the obvious two signal-callers are in more demand. The order was the same as how NFL commish Roger Goodell famously called them, with Jameis Winston ahead of Marcus Mariota. At running back, Todd Gurley projects as a special talent, but not for 16 games in 2015 as he recovers from his ACL tear. I admit I reexamined and adjusted Gurley’s rank at his position and overall when others, including the awesome Stephania Bell, argued not only how special he should be but about his potential recovery and return to the St. Louis Rams could be sooner than five or six games. We did, however, not need to debate that San Diego Chargers rookie Melvin Gordon is the better initial option, though that’s not true for dynasty formats. Several other first-year running backs were highly debated in comparison to disappointing veterans, with the premise being that T.J. Yeldon and Tevin Coleman, for example, haven’t broken hearts yet like Jonathan Stewart and Andre Ellington, and should be held in higher regard. It was an interesting debate, the promise of young running backs versus old ones lacking high ceilings, and it continued at wide receiver where Amari Cooper and Kevin White were evaluated for the positive and negative as well. Oakland Raiders passer Derek Carr is not held in high esteem, even when compared to Jay Cutler.
Running wild (or not) in Dallas and Philly: With DeMarco Murray bolting the Dallas Cowboys for the division rival Philadelphia Eagles, there was much to discuss here. The Cowboys possess a special offensive line, which only got stronger with the acquisition of LSU’s controversial La’el Collins a day after our summit, but nevertheless it was almost painful when disappointing Darren McFadden was dissected. Some were high on him, most others that probably owned him at some point in recent years were not, while still others projected he wouldn’t even make the Cowboys and the team’s leading running back wasn’t currently part of the organization. There’s clearly opportunity for McFadden, Joseph Randle or someone else. Meanwhile in Philly, mad scientist Chip Kelly could spare a running back if he wanted. Murray’s feasibility as a top-10 running back, as he’s destined to see fewer touches, was a hot topic as well. Ryan Mathews is the clear backup, as several in the room projected how the running back touches would be divided. If only Kelly were in the room!
Value-Based Drafting and the signature tight end: What a fascinating discussion this was about New England Patriots star Rob Gronkowski. Nobody argues about his incredible ability, and even as several of us couldn’t simply overlook his past injury history, we concur he’s a very valuable option. Whether he’s top-10 overall or not is another issue, one passionately argued. Harris preaches about Value Based Drafting and its relevance in how we treat running backs, where the position is critical but hardly laden in depth, versus Gronkowski and how he compares to the back end of a respectable tight end corps for 10- and 12-team formats. For a tight end to actually earn overall top-10 status in VBD, he’d need to be considerably better statistically than Gronkowski was in 2014, and no tight end has ever finished top-10 in VBD. The staff eventually ranked Gronkowski 10th, but I’m with Harris here in that I’m going running back or wide receiver in that spot for sure. Still, the conversation was captivating.
Hall of Fame quarterbacks on the decline: Denver Broncos great Peyton Manning certainly wasn’t so great down the stretch last season. Nobody threw for more passing yards than New Orleans Saints veteran Drew Brees, but still, he’s had better years and his weaponry has been altered as well on paper, seemingly for the worst. And we can’t really overlook New England Patriots winner Tom Brady and his streaky season, either. Plus, there was debate about a potential suspension for Brady over, well, you know. This led to much positive talk about Seattle Seahawks runner Russell Wilson, who ended up ranked ahead of Manning in the No. 3 spot, while Miami Dolphins emerging talent Ryan Tannehill was recommended heartily by some for top-10 status, which he barely missed out on. Manning, Brees and Brady retained strong draft spots, though with pause by some, and while some might be surprised they didn’t fare better, it’s tough to not judge them as safe, fantasy starters.