We have a smaller slate of four games Thursday night. The matchup I'm looking forward to the most is Los Angeles Lakers-Boston Celtics at the TD Garden. The Celtics and Lakers are two of the most storied franchises in the NBA and they have the greatest rivalry. It's surprising that Los Angeles is fighting just to qualify for the playoffs after winning the league's first in-season tournament. With the best record in the NBA, the Celtics hope to carry that momentum into the postseason to win their first championship since 2008. We'll find out if this game is more competitive than 11.5-point spread suggests.
Now let's dive into my first betting recommendation.
Jayson Tatum over 27.5 points. If Tatum does not deliver an exceptional performance against the Lakers, I would be shocked. He's surpassed this line in three of his past five games. Tatum commands a 30% usage rate this season, but I expect him to exceed it. In Tatum's past five games against LeBron James and the Lakers, he averaged 23.4 field goal attempts and 34.0 points with a usage rate of 33.7%. Los Angeles allows nearly 12 more points per game on the road than at home, the largest differential in the league this season.
LeBron James over 7.5 assists. The Lakers must play flawlessly if they hope to defeat the Celtics. Los Angeles also benefits when James acts as a facilitator. He has surpassed this line in four consecutive games. Since James joined arrived in Los Angeles, the Lakers have a 64-29 record in games in which he has 10 or more assists.
Utah Jazz -5.5. The 76ers find themselves dealing with injuries to key players ahead of Thursday's game. Joel Embiid has been ruled out due to a knee injury, and Tyrese Maxey is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Even if Maxey is active, he may be on a minutes restriction. The Jazz return home to the Delta Center after a challenging six-game road trip, finishing 2-4. Utah boasts a strong 16-5 record against the spread at home, ranking ninth in offensive rating and 14th in defensive rating on their home court. This sets up a favorable situation for Utah.
Lauri Markkanen over 8.5 rebounds. Despite a rough patch, playing on the Jazz's home court could turn things around. Over the past 15 games, Markkanen has averaged 9.0 rebounds. Markkanen, who is 7'0 feet tall, will be one of the tallest players on the court with Embiid out. The 76ers give up the second most rebounds per game to power forwards.
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks under 236.5 points. The Knicks have had the best defensive rating in the league since Jan. 1, and OG Anunoby has played a crucial role in that. Over that period, New York also played at the second slowest pace. While the Pacers score a lot of points and play fast, I expect the Knicks to slow them down and control the game's pace. The total has gone under in nine of New York's past 10 games.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m. TD Garden, Boston
Records (Against the Spread)
Lakers: 24-25 (21-28-0)
Celtics: 37-11 (24-22-2)
Line: Celtics (-11.5) Total: 240.5
Money Line: Lakers (+475), Celtics (-650)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 13.5, straight up 89%, 234.5 total points.
Injury Report:
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - Achilles); LeBron James, (GTD - Ankle); Cam Reddish, (OUT - Ankle); Gabe Vincent, (OUT - Knee)
Celtics: Luke Kornet, (GTD - Hamstring)
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m.Madison Square Garden, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
Pacers: 27-21 (27-19-2)
Knicks: 31-17 (29-18-1)
Line: Knicks (-3.5) Total: 236.5
Money Line: Pacers (+125), Knicks (-145)
BPI Projection: Knicks by 2.2, straight up 58%, 237.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Pacers: Bennedict Mathurin, (GTD - Toe); Jalen Smith, (GTD - Back); T.J. McConnell, (GTD - Illness); Tyrese Haliburton, (GTD - Hamstring)
Knicks: Duane Washington Jr., (GTD - Thumb); OG Anunoby, (GTD - Elbow); Quentin Grimes, (GTD - Knee); Julius Randle, (OUT - Shoulder); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT - Ankle)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis Grizzlies
8:00 p.m. FedExForum, Memphis
Records (Against the Spread)
Cavaliers: 29-16 (24-20-1)
Grizzlies: 18-29 (21-26-0)
Line: Cavaliers (-7.5) Total: 215.5
Money Line: Cavaliers (-340), Grizzlies (+270)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 9.3, straight up 80%, 220.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Cavaliers: Tristan Thompson, (OUT - Suspension); Ty Jerome, (OUT - Ankle)
Grizzlies: Derrick Rose, (GTD - Hamstring); John Konchar, (GTD - Ankle); Luke Kennard, (GTD - Knee); Ziaire Williams, (OUT - Hand); Jake LaRavia, (OUT - Ankle); Brandon Clarke, (OUT - Achilles); Marcus Smart, (OUT - Finger); Desmond Bane, (OUT - Ankle); Ja Morant, (OUT - Shoulder); Steven Adams, (OUT - Knee)
Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz
10:00 p.m. Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Records (Against the Spread)
76ers: 29-17 (28-18-0)
Jazz: 24-25 (29-20-0)
Line: Jazz (-5.5) Total: 238.5
Money Line: 76ers (+170), Jazz (-200)
BPI Projection: Jazz by 4.7, straight up 66%, 234.9 total points.
Injury Report:
76ers: Marcus Morris Sr., (GTD - Foot); Nicolas Batum, (GTD - Hamstring); Tyrese Maxey, (GTD - Ankle); De'Anthony Melton, (OUT - Back); Joel Embiid, (OUT - Knee); Kenneth Lofton Jr., (OUT - Personal); Robert Covington, (OUT - Knee)
Jazz: None reported