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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

          • ESPN Fantasy
          Jun 13, 2023, 01:56 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB games

          By Derek Carty

          • Hunter Brown (68% rostered) is somehow only on two-thirds of ESPN rosters despite a 3.69 ERA, 3.09 xFIP, and 10.4 K/9. This should be a 98% guy, and on Tuesday he faces perhaps the worst offense in the majors: the Washington Nationals. He's a must roster and a must-play if he isn't already for whatever reason.

          • Assuming Brown is gone, Kutter Crawford (1%) would be your best choice to stream. He faces a very weak Colorado Rockies offense (especially with C.J. Cron and Kris Bryant both on the IL) outside of Coors Field. Fenway is no picnic, but it's still a steep park downgrade for the Rockies, and Crawford's win chances are among the highest of the day (40%, via THE BAT X) squaring off against Chase Anderson.

          • If you are a Lance Lynn (65%) rostered, he should be firmly secured to your bench today. He's a borderline drop in a lot of leagues anyway, and he has to face the elite offense of the Dodgers on Tuesday. Stay far, far away from him and his 5.63 projected ERA in this spot. Chris Bassitt (91%) is another popular arm that projects poorly (4.98 ERA on Tuesday) and should not be started.

          • THE BAT X projects just one offense to score six-plus runs on Tuesday, and that's the Boston Red Sox. They're in the top hitters' park on the slate and face the worst-projected starting pitcher in the major leagues. Justin Turner (64%), Adam Duvall (51%), Triston Casas (27%), Enrique Hernandez (8%), Christian Arroyo (0%), and Connor Wong (1%) are all great choices to stream.

          • For stolen bases, the Seattle Mariners profile well against Edward Cabrera. He puts a lot of runners on via walk, and he's favorable to attempt steals against. Keep an eye on the stolen base prop lines for Julio Rodriguez (99%) and Ty France (77%), and consider streaming Teoscar Hernandez (57%), Jarred Kelenic (41%), Jose Caballero (0%), or Dylan Moore (0%).

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Draft now and start fresh with a 0-0 record beginning the next scoring period. Come and join the fun of ESPN's brand new standard scoring format.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Bullpen usage watch for Tuesday

          By Todd Zola

          • Monday was one of those nights for Raisel Iglesias. He was asked to lock down a 5-2 Atlanta Braves lead, but the Detroit Tigers pushed across three runs, tying the game before walking it off in the bottom of the 10th. Iglesias has been solid since coming off the IL in early May, so this is likely just a blip. However, he threw 27 pitches, so as anxious as he'll be for some redemption, Iglesias may have to wait until Wednesday -- although he worked last night on two days rest, so there's still a chance he comes back today. The safe play is hedging with A.J. Minter, since Nick Anderson was also extended last night, throwing 25 pitches.

          • Camilo Doval recorded four outs last night to capture his 17th save, but it wasn't without adventure as he walked two and gave up a hit before being saved by a double-play in the ninth. The problem is that Doval threw 27 pitches --and only 13 for strikes. The catch is that he was working on three days of rest, and Doval appeared on back-to-back days after throwing 23 pitches one time, and 25 another. It's not a sure thing, but leaving Doval in today's fantasy lineup does make sense.

          • Carlos Estevez was asked to preserve a 5-5 tie and send the Los Angeles Angels to extra innings in Arlington last night -- and he did just that. His club went on to defeat the Texas Rangers, 9-6, in 12 innings. Estevez tossed 24 pitches, but like Iglesias and Doval, he was working with extended rest. Estevez has worked on consecutive days, but always after compiling fewer pitches. The problem is that the Angels bullpen is thin with both Matt Moore and Ben Joyce on the IL and Chris Devenski throwing 24 pitches each of the past two days. Jacob Webb and Aaron Loup are the best bets for late-inning deployment.

          • Kenley Jansen needed only 10 pitches to work a clean ninth in a 2-2 tie last night at rainy Fenway Park. The effort went for naught as the Colorado Rockies scored twice in the top of the 10th, and after waiting through a rain delay, they held the Red Sox to one run to claim the first game of the series. Last night was the second straight day Jansen threw 10 pitches, bringing him to 37 over the last four days. Chris Martin did not pitch in last night's extra-inning affair, so he's the likely candidate to handle closing duties (if needed) tonight.

          Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday

          Prop of the Day

          Brandon Williamson, Reds, 17.5 pitching outs (-115/-115)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT X sees Williamson putting up 14.5 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 30.0% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $35.54.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • Kansas City's projected offense grades out as the second-worst on the slate today.

          • Williamson is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.8% FB% according to THE BAT X projections) and should be helped by pitching in the No. 27 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • The Royals have been the fifth-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to perform better going forward

          • Kauffman Stadium profiles as the No. 3 park in the game for batting average, via THE BAT X projection system.

          • The weather report calls for the fourth-best hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

          • The Royals have seven batters in their projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Williamson in this matchup.