Belgian Grand Prix preview: Refocussing on Hamilton vs. Vettel

With Formula One's summer break now done and dusted, attention turns to Spa as Sebastian Vettel looks to end Lewis Hamilton's run of form and close the gap in the drivers' championship.

After a summer break dominated by driver movement, a retirement and many remarkable story lines, it's easy to get distracted from what has been an epic battle for both the drivers and constructors' world championships.

Just days after last month's Hungarian Grand Prix, Daniel Ricciardo shocked the Formula One world with his decision to switch from Red Bull to Renault ahead of the 2019 season. Then, 10 days later, the news of two-time world champion Fernando Alonso's retirement from the sport made headlines with plenty more driver movement -- and rumours -- quickly following.

But with the summer break over and racing set to resume, the focus should rightly return to the two championship fights; Mercedes vs. Ferrari and Lewis Hamilton vs. Sebastian Vettel. After all, it's the first year in the V6 turbo era that both championships have been neck-and-neck this deep into the season.

The first 12 races of 2018 saw momentum swing back and forth between Hamilton and Vettel but it was the Mercedes man who managed to put space between his title rival with wins in both Germany and Hungary before F1's four-week hiatus.

In recent years Hamilton has excelled in the second half of the season. Since 2013, he has won 54.84 percent of races which have followed the summer break, while finishing on the podium a staggering 87 percent of the time.

There may still be nine races left in 2018 but Vettel, with a Ferrari that is arguably the quickest car on the grid, needs to make his move now. Can he do it at a track he hasn't won at since 2013?

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Since winning July's British Grand Prix things have turned rather sour for Vettel.

In the space of eight days the German's 12-point lead over Hamilton in the drivers' championship morphed into a 24-point deficit and you sense that a return to the top step of the podium in Spa is needed if he's to challenge for the title in the second half of the season.

His late mistake at the Hockenheimring was certainly a shock but Vettel had no answer for Hamilton's wet weather pace during qualifying in Budapest and as a result was unable to challenge his title rival in the race.

Given Ferrari has had the quickest car this season and Vettel has been arguably 2018's form driver, trailing Hamilton at the summer break must be playing on his mind.

For Vettel, his Belgian Grand Prix objective is simple; finish ahead of Hamilton.

Okay, let's be a little more specific; Red Bull don't just need points, they need a double points finish.

It's been five races since both Red Bulls finished a race -- the longest streak of retirements for the team since 2008 -- as regular engine troubles continue to compromise their race weekends.

Regular Renault engine woes combined with the odd driver error has been the downfall of Red Bull in 2018 and after 12 races they sit a distant third in the constructors' championship.

Red Bull desperately needs a clean weekend and a return to normality in Belgium, particularly after the stunning news that Ricciardo will depart the team for Renault at the end of the season.

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Available compounds: Medium, Soft and Super-soft

Pirelli's pointers:

• The stresses on the tyres come from all directions in Spa: lateral, longitudinal and also vertical, as the drivers tackle the famous downhill then uphill compression at Eau Rouge, with high speeds and extreme vertical loads.
• Spa is well-known for its variable weather, and the 7.004-kilometre length of the lap means that it can be raining in one part of the circuit and completely dry in another.
• The drivers have made full use of all three nominated compounds, with some choosing the same quantity of the hardest compound (medium) as the softest compound (supersoft).

Minimum starting pressures: Front 24psi, rear 22psi

The likelihood of a wet Belgian Grand Prix sits at around 70 percent with rain set to fall in the Spa-Francorchamps from Friday through to late Sunday. This means that, if accurate, a wet weekend is quite possible with very limited dry running set to take place.

Although western Europe has been experiencing a heatwave for the past two months, the Eiffel mountains where Spa is located can often have its own weather system that changes by the hour.

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Bookmakers can't split Mercedes and Ferrari in Belgium with even money up for grabs if you think you know who will have the advantage. 

It's a similar story in the market for driver wins with Hamilton and Vettel both paying 11/8 for a win. The value bet for this weekend could be Red Bull with Max Verstappen (10/1) and Ricciardo (12/1) offering tantalising odds.

Mercedes has dominated at Spa since 2015 but it will come to an end this year as Ferrari gets its championship charge back on track.

Winner: Sebastian Vettel

Bonus prediction: No engine trouble for Red Bull