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ARIZONA CARDINALS

Last Season: 13-3

First place, NFC West, lost in NFC Championship

Preseason power ranking: 4

This year’s roster is a near replica of last season’s, which went 13-3 and lost in the NFC Championship Game. The minor tweaks should make the Cardinals better. But having continuity -- every player who caught a pass from quarterback Carson Palmer and every player who scored an offensive touchdown is returning -- will be a main reason why the Cardinals return to the playoffs. Another reason is Palmer, who is coming off the best season of his career with 4,671 yards and 35 touchdowns. As long as he stays healthy, Palmer should have a repeat performance. Then there’s the improved defense, which will take a significant amount of pressure off the offense. Arizona traded for outside linebacker Chandler Jones in March, upgrading its pass rush from a third-down rusher in Dwight Freeney to an every-down pass-rusher.

Injuries could derail this team in a hurry, especially an injury to Palmer. It happened in 2014, when the Cardinals started 9-1 and finished 11-5. Backup Drew Stanton is a capable quarterback, but he can’t to lead a team single-handedly to 10 wins or more. Palmer is what makes the offense tick. He understands its levels, depth, intricacies, nuances -- all of which are complex. The Cardinals could survive injuries to most other positions. The exceptions are left tackle Jared Veldheer (because it would cause a massive reshuffle of the offensive line), a cornerback or safety Tyrann Mathieu again. Mathieu is the heart and soul of Arizona’s defense, proved by its performance after he was injured last season.

Cardinals’ percentage chance to win each game

Sept. 11 vs. New England: 67.0

Sept. 18 vs. Tampa Bay: 75.5

Sept. 25 @ Buffalo: 45.1

Oct. 2 vs. Los Angeles: 71.7

Oct. 6 @ San Francisco: 64.6

Oct. 17 vs. NY Jets: 73.1

Oct. 23 vs. Seattle: 56.2

Oct. 30 @ Carolina: 32.5

Nov. 13 vs. San Francisco: 82.8

Nov. 20 @ Minnesota: 49.7

Nov. 27 @ Atlanta: 48.2

Dec. 4 vs. Washington: 73.4

Dec. 11 @ Miami: 54.3

Dec. 18 vs. New Orleans 74.5

Dec. 24 @ Seattle: 35.9

Jan. 1 @ Los Angeles: 54.3

Josh Weinfuss’ game-by-game predictions

When Carson Palmer starts, the Cardinals are 20–4, counting playoffs, the past two seasons. When he doesn’t? They’re 5–6. Still, the Cards have confidence in backup Drew Stanton. -- Dan Graziano

The Cardinals experienced life without Mathieu last season when it meant the most -- and they saw how much it hurt not to have him in the playoffs. They’ll get Mathieu back from his knee injury early this season, maybe Week 1, and he could be the difference in Arizona’s defense getting off to a tepid pace or it blazing through the schedule and into Super Bowl 51.

There’s no question second-year running back David Johnson burst onto the football and fantasy scene last year with 13 touchdowns, including five in the final five games as the starter. Even though he won’t be returning kickoffs this year (which accounted for one of his touchdowns last season), Johnson will have a larger role in the Cardinals’ offense, both in the backfield and as a receiver, which means he’ll have more opportunities to make big plays.

This team is built to win the Super Bowl, no question. But the Cardinals have to stop reading their press clippings and tune out the pressure and chatter that comes with that kind of hype. If they can do that and stay healthy, the Cardinals should end up in Houston in February.