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Defense can lead Broncos back to Super Bowl

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DENVER BRONCOS

Last Season: 12-4

First place, AFC West, win the Super Bowl

Preseason power rankings: 8

Let’s start with the defense that ostensibly won the Broncos a Super Bowl. Although defensive end Malik Jackson signed with the Jaguars and linebacker Danny Trevathan with the Bears in free agency, the Broncos have nine starters returning. They are loaded with speed to go with depth among their pass-rushers and at cornerback. Von Miller has also shown that he is poised for a huge season in the wake of signing a $114.5 million contract. John Elway has said this roster, on paper, is improved over that of last season. But he has also said, in true Elway fashion, that this roster has to prove it has the toughness last year’s team consistently showed. The Broncos were also 16th in total offense last season and 19th in scoring, so even a modest boost in those numbers would likely put them back in the title-game conversation.

Start, again, with the defense that won the Super Bowl. A couple major injuries, particularly anything that would keep Miller or cornerback Chris Harris Jr. out for an extended period, and the Broncos will have a difficult time keeping their postseason momentum. Toss in DeMarcus Ware’s balky back -- he missed all of training camp and most of the offseason program -- and the prospect of discipline for cornerback Aqib Talib after an offseason shooting incident when he suffered two wounds in his right leg. Oh, and that doesn’t even include the Broncos’ situation at quarterback.

Broncos’ percentage chance to win each game

Sept. 8 vs. Carolina: 56.8

Sept. 18 vs. Indianapolis: 65.0

Sept. 25 @ Cincinnati: 41.0

Oct. 2 @ Tampa Bay: 53.1

Oct. 9 vs. Atlanta: 71.5

Oct. 13 @ San Diego: 54.0

Oct. 24 vs. Houston: 67.5

Oct. 30 vs. San Diego: 71.9

Nov. 6 @ Oakland: 43.9

Nov. 13 @ New Orleans: 52.6

Nov. 27 vs. Kansas City: 61.8

Dec. 4 @ Jacksonville: 51.5

Dec. 11 @ Tennessee: 55.7

Dec. 18 vs. New England: 54.9

Dec. 25 @ Kansas City 38.1

Jan. 1 vs. Oakland: 62.5

Jeff Legwold’s game-by-game predictions

All Mark Sanchez had to do was hold off seventh-round pick Trevor Siemian. He couldn’t. As a result, the champs will ask Siemian not to steer their repeat train into a ditch while the defense carries them and Paxton Lynch gets ready. -- Dan Graziano

The Broncos have potential take-over-the-game playmakers in C.J. Anderson, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to go with Harris or linebacker Brandon Marshall. But the playmaker on this team is Miller. And the last time the Broncos lined up in a game that really mattered -- Super Bowl 50 -- Miller was the guy who took it over with 2.5 sacks and two forced fumbles.

Both motive and opportunity are there for Anderson to flourish in the run game. Broncos coach Gary Kubiak has vowed to run the ball with more impact this season. The Broncos retooled their offensive line in free agency and added a fullback in the draft, and Anderson arrived at training camp leaner and with more quickness. The only caveat for Anderson? Rookie Devontae Booker has looked spectacular, so Anderson will have to be at his best to keep his carries.

The Broncos, with a new quarterback under center, open against Carolina, followed by Indianapolis and Cincinnati before a trip to Tampa in Week 4. But unless they are decimated by injuries or slowed by complacency, this team should play high-end, defensive football. Miller could well be in the mix for the league’s Defensive Player of the Year if he transfers what he has done on the practice field into games.