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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Last Season: 11-5
Second place, AFC West, lost in the wild-card round
Preseason power ranking: 9
The Chiefs should have their best offensive team since coach Andy Reid and quarterback Alex Smith arrived in 2013. Their group of wide receivers and tight ends, led by Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce, is deep. The Chiefs, with running backs Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West combining for more than 1,000 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns last season, were already deep at running back and will welcome back Jamaal Charles. He missed much of last season with a torn ACL. With the Chiefs’ big free-agency addition being right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, the offensive line should also be the best of the Reid era.
The Chiefs enter the season without their best pass-rusher and all-around defender, Justin Houston. He had ACL surgery in February and could join the lineup late in the season, if he plays at all in 2016. Another top pass-rusher, Tamba Hali, is 32, and his aching knees kept him out of training camp. Much of the Chiefs’ strength defensively last year was their ability to rush the opposing quarterback. The pass rush won’t be as potent, at least early in the season. How well the Chiefs can mask that deficiency, and how well they can cover for the loss of free-agent cornerback Sean Smith, might determine whether they reach the postseason for a second straight season.
Chiefs’ percentage chance to win each game
Sept. 11 vs. San Diego: 73.8
Sept. 18 @ Houston: 47.6
Sept. 25 vs. NY Jets: 67.9
Oct. 2 @ Pittsburgh: 38.2
Oct. 16 @ Oakland: 49.3
Oct. 23 vs. New Orleans: 72.6
Oct. 30 @ Indianapolis: 46.0
Nov. 6 vs. Jacksonville: 71.6
Nov. 13 @ Carolina: 38.6
Nov. 20 vs. Tampa Bay: 74.3
Nov. 27 @ Denver: 37.9
Dec. 4 @ Atlanta: 54.3
Dec. 8 vs. Oakland: 66.5
Dec. 18 vs. Tennessee: 80.3
Dec. 25 vs. Denver: 61.6
Jan. 1 @ San Diego: 55.2
Adam Teicher’s game-by-game predictions
With Smith, you’re getting confidence when it comes to avoiding turnovers (no more than seven interceptions in a season since 2010). On the flip side, he’s had 20 or more touchdown passes only twice. -- Dan Graziano
Marcus Peters is one of the NFL’s top playmakers at cornerback. He was a frequent target for opposing quarterbacks as a rookie last season, and while he gave up a lot of plays, he also tied for the league lead in interceptions. He needs to continue to provide big plays while cutting down on the number he allows.
The Chiefs score a large percentage of their touchdowns on the ground. Despite the presence of Ware and West, Charles will be the featured back and get the majority of the touches, assuming he’s healthy and returns as the same player he was before the injury.
Keep an eye on Smith’s touchdown passes. His record for a season is 23, and he needs to not just break it but finish in the upper 20s. This is the best surrounding cast he’s had since he’s come to the Chiefs, so if it’s going to happen, it will be this year. The Chiefs will need the increased offensive production from their veteran quarterback.