Last season, IBM introduced IBM Insights, a tool that uses Watson AI to analyze thousands of fantasy articles, blogs, websites and podcasts and provide support data to assist with fantasy football decisions.
Watson outputs an estimated scoring range for each player, as well as projecting the chances that a player will exceed the upside estimate (e.g. "boom") or fall short of the low end estimate (e.g. "bust") on any given week.
For those who are looking for a tool to concentrate various web opinions into one location to help make roster moves, IBM offers Watson's Insights as an unsupervised, quantitative supplement to the more in-depth, personalized analysis that you would normally expect from an ESPN analyst.
The following article points out a few notable insights from Watson for Week 14 of the NFL season, as of early Friday afternoon.
Running back decisions
Running backs are some of the most potentially powerful producers in fantasy football, but they are also often the scarcest commodity because there are so few "number one" backs these days. As such, there is usually a very clear hierarchy at the top with a handful of ultra-elite backs who are definite starts every week.
And then, for the first week of most leagues' fantasy football playoffs, you have a fringe starter (starting in less than 15 percent of ESPN leagues) in Derrick Henry absolutely detonate for the game of his life, and you realize that there's no such thing as a guaranteed start or sit at this stage of the game. You have to look at all the data you can, all the way up until game time, and then go with your best guess.
(For the record, IBM Insights had Henry projected for a high-mark of 18.0 fantasy points with a greater than 25 percent chance to boom, which in hindsight was actually really good considering his season high was less than 18 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues).
Anyway, the point is that it can be difficult to decide between backs of similar caliber, so here are a few backs who stand out in IBM Insight's projections for this week.
Projections higher than rank
Jaylen Samuels, Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders
Weekly rank 96, 31st among eligible RBs
High projection: 23.0 fantasy points
Low projection: 9.3 fantasy points
Boom chance: 0.25
Bust chance: 0.06
Samuels is expected to start this week at running back for the Steelers with James Conner (ankle) out, though he is also expected to possibly split carries with Stevan Ridley. These projections would be safe for Conner, but if Samuels does play the majority of the game, he has this type of upside in the Steelers' potent offense.
Watson's Insight: The Steelers really ride their running backs, and if Samuels gets Conners-like touches, he has big impact potential this week.
Jeff Wilson Jr., San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos
Weekly rank 108, 35th among eligible RBs
High projection: 19.3 fantasy points
Low projection: 7.8 fantasy points
Boom chance: 0.19
Bust chance: 0.12
Wilson took over for Matt Breida last week after Breida injured his ankle, and Wilson exploded for 134 total yards in 23 touches against a tough Seattle Seahawks defense. IBM Insights projections expect him to have a borderline RB1 effort this week against the Broncos.
Watson's Insight: With Breida out this week, IBM Insights projects Wilson to produce starting RB-level numbers against the Broncos.
Most likely to go boom/Least likely to bust
LeGarrette Blount, Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Weekly rank 160, 48th among eligible RBs
High projection: 16.7 fantasy points
Low projection: 4.4 fantasy points
Boom chance: 0.25
Bust chance: 0.06
Blount and Theo Riddick both project well this week, with similar scores across the board. Both give the Lions something different in the backfield with Kerryon Johnson injured, and IBM Insights seems to identify the matchup between the Lions' running backs and the Cardinals' defense as one that should be advantageous to the backs.
Watson's Insight: Blount and Riddick are both getting more responsibility with Johnson injured, and IBM Insights projects both of them as starting caliber fantasy backs with more than four times the likelihood to boom as to bust.
Frank Gore, Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
Weekly rank 176, 52nd among eligible RBs
High projection: 18.3 fantasy points
Low projection: 3.5 fantasy points
Boom chance: 0.26
Bust chance: 0.09
Gore had produced 179 total yards in the two games before Week 13, when he had a weak effort against the Buffalo Bills. IBM Insights seems to identify this matchup as a bounce-back opportunity for Gore, with a solid high projection and three times more likelihood to boom than to bust.
Watson's Insight: Gore projects as a bounce-back, potential fantasy starting RB this week according to IBM Insight.