The 2013 draft class is shaping up to be the weakest in years, thanks largely to the end of a long run of strong groups of high school arms. The strengths of this upcoming class right now are college pitching, especially the kind of second-tier arms who typically go in the middle to back of the first round, and high school catching, although several of those kids are committed to major Division I programs and might be tough signs.
Having spent the summer scouting the top players for next year's draft, I figured this would be a good time to give you a preliminary ranking. So here's a very early look at the top 30 prospects in the class, starting with one you all probably know quite well.
1. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford
Drafted eighth overall by Pittsburgh in June, Appel chose not to sign with the Pirates, who offered $3.8 million, instead returning to Stanford to try to reach the College World Series for the first time in his career as a Cardinal. Even maintaining his level of performance would return him to consideration for the top pick, but if Appel can get more say in his pitch calling -- avoiding bench-called nonsense like six consecutive changeups to guys who can't hit his fastball -- he can still improve his stock as a senior.
2. Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas
Up to 96 with a power slider, Stanek has raised his arm slot slightly and profiles better as a starter now than he did out of high school, but needs to show he can pitch more off his fastball rather than relying on that tremendous breaking ball to miss bats.
3. Austin Wilson, OF, Stanford
A top prospect since his junior year in high school, Wilson has gotten much bigger since heading to Palo Alto, and started to pull the ball more in the second half of this spring, carrying that power over to the Cape Cod League before an oblique strain ended his season. A full season of power and getting on base with solid defense in the outfield should have him in top-five consideration.
4. Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State
Manaea came out of nowhere this summer, sitting 91-96 on the Cape like he was playing catch, with an above-average slider, although his arm slot's a little low and he pronates pretty late, which can put a little extra stress on the arm over time.
5. Austin Meadows, CF, Grayson (Ga.) HS
The best tools package among high school position players, Meadows has bat speed, above-average raw power, plus speed, and has a shot to play center field, although he'll still profile in a corner. It's a weak class of prep bats, but Meadows is one of the few who'd be a first-round talent in any year.
6. Kris Bryant, 3B, San Diego
I had Bryant ranked as a late first-round prospect out of high school but a high price tag dropped him to the 18th round and sent him to the Toreros, where he has mashed for two years. His swing is a little long and he may end up at first base, but he's among the top raw power guys among college bats.
7. Jonathan Crawford, RHP, Florida
Crawford's delivery is a little funky but 93-95 touching 98 with a plus slider will get you noticed, especially if you play for a premium program like Florida.
8. Kohl Stewart, RHP, St. Pius X (Houston)
Stewart is committed to Texas A&M to play quarterback but should never set foot on campus, not with a 92-95 mph fastball that has touched 97 and feel for both a slider and changeup.
9. Trey Ball, OF/LHP, New Castle (Ind.) HS
Ball's a lean, projectable, high-upside athlete who looks more promising with the bat, showing a solid left-handed swing and above-average speed as well as a plus arm from the outfield; he's 88-91 off the mound and could add velocity as he fills out.
10. Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville (Ga.) HS
Frazier has the best bat speed among high school hitters in this class and developing power, but less chance to stay in center than Meadows, his Georgia neighbor.
11. Bobby Wahl, RHP, Ole Miss
The polished right-hander led SEC underclassmen in strikeouts this spring with above-average fasbtall/breaking ball combo.
12. Trevor Williams, RHP, Arizona State
Williams will take over Friday nights from Brady Rogers in Tempe, working with a mid-90s fastball, but needs to show he can miss more bats.
13. A.J. Vanegas, RHP, Stanford
One of several wild-card college arms in this year's draft, Vanegas has shown mid-90s velocity in relief and should work with an above-average fastball as a starter along with a good delivery and the ability to spin a curveball.
14. Oscar Mercado, SS, Gaither HS (Tampa)
Mercado's one of the few true shortstops in this draft class, which is very weak up the middle, and has an excellent chance to be an above-average to plus defender there, with the bat speed for contact but not power.
15. Justin Williams, OF/3B, Terrebonne HS (Houma, La.)
Williams has raw power, winning the home run derbies at both the Perfect Game and Under Armour All-American games in August, with good bat speed and wrist strength, but is otherwise raw as a hitter and on defense.
16. Marco Gonzales, LHP, Gonzaga
He's a command three-pitch lefty who's also an outstanding athlete and can field his position and swing the bat well, just lacking that one knockout pitch or the big fastball that might make him a top-10 candidate.
17. Ryan Eades, RHP, LSU
Eades had a strong freshman year and summer on the Cape in 2011, but struggled with command this spring and took the summer off; he's got a high slot and a solid-average fastball but needs to locate better to succeed.
18. Ian Clarkin, LHP, James Madison HS (San Diego)
He's the hardest-throwing prep lefty in the class and sat 90-93 much of the summer. He needs to improve his command and get more velocity on the curveball, which has good shape but was 69-72 at the Perfect Game All-American Game in August.
19. Andy McGuire, IF, James Madison HS (Oakton, Va.)
I really like this Texas commit's swing, from setup to hip rotation to follow-through, with good balance to let him drive the ball to all fields; he plays shortstop now but will have to move to second or third.
20. Colin Moran, IF, North Carolina
Moran, who currently plays third base, can hit for average, but if he has to move to first base, which is a possibility, his bat may not profile as more than average there.
21. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS (San Marcos, Calif.)
An advanced high school lefty with a solid-average fastball, long but fairly easy delivery, and solid rotation on a two-plane curveball that generates a lot of swings and misses at this level.
22. Brett Morales, RHP, King HS (Tampa)
He was mostly 89-93 this summer with more in the tank, good spin on a curveball, and some feel for the change, although command is spotty and he comes across his body towards the plate.
23. Matt McPhearson, CF, Riverdale Baptist HS (Columbia, Md.)
McPhearson is raw at the plate but has shown he can work the count, with bat speed and the potential for plus defense in center.
24. Jonathan Denney, C, Yukon (Okla.) HS
In a deep class for high school catchers, Denney stood out this summer for his ability to consistently square up the baseball, including a long home run at the Area Code Games, where it's difficult for hitters of any age to get the ball over the fence.
25. A.J. Puk, LHP, Washington HS (Cedar Rapids, Iowa)
No Iowa high schooler has ever gone in the first round, which isn't surprising since schools there play over the summer, but Puk has the size, athleticism, and arm strength -- up to 92 at the Area Code Games with a promising mid-70s curveball -- to end that drought.
26. Aaron Judge, OF, Fresno State
Judge hit the radar with two bombs off Appel in a game this spring, but only hit two more homers the rest of the season. He's 6-foot-7, 230 pounds, athletic and strong, but that size needs to translate into power during his junior year.
27. Karsten Whitson, RHP, Florida
The ninth overall pick by the Padres in 2010 (and fourth on my draft board), Whitson changed his bonus demands after the draft and ended up attending Florida, where various injuries contributed to a poor sophomore year, including diminished velocity. He needs to get healthy and back to 92-96 if he wants to return to the top 10.
28. Dustin Driver, RHP, Wenatchee (Wash.) HS
Driver has a solid-average fastball now and should pitch better than that in the spring, coming from a high arm slot with a good changeup but below-average curveball.
29. Ryan Boldt, OF, Red Wing (Minn.) HS
Boldt's an athletic centerfielder who can run and has great hand acceleration at the plate, although his swing is pretty linear and is geared for contact but not power.
30. Phil Ervin, OF, Samford
Ervin was the Cape Cod League MVP this year, hitting for average and surprising power while getting on base at a good clip; he's just 5-11 and doesn't offer any projection, but his swing is pretty sound and the power is legit.