The Cincinnati Reds fancied themselves contenders heading into 2015 but the season was all downhill after an opening sweep of the Pirates. Homer Bailey went down for the year after two starts, free agents Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake were eventually traded away and the Reds ended up starting a rookie pitcher in their final 64 games. They went 8-21 in August and 10-22 in September/October, including a 13-game losing streak, and finished with the franchise's worst record since 1982.
What do they need? Well, they're pretty strong at first base with Joey Votto, third base with Todd Frazier and closer with Aroldis Chapman. Everything else? A big question mark. Votto had a terrific season, ranking second to Bryce Harper in adjusted OPS in the NL and third among NL position players in Baseball Reference WAR, behind Harper and Paul Goldschmidt. Even then, the Reds ranked just 12th in the NL in runs. Frazier hit 35 home runs but posted just a .309 OBP and Jay Bruce had another bad season, hitting .226/.294/.434. The rotation will be a fight among all the kids in what will likely turn into a season-long audition.
On the rise: Eugenio Suarez, acquired from the Tigers for Alfredo Simon, ended up starting 95 games at shortstop due to the knee injury to Zack Cozart and showed some pop at the plate, hitting .280/.315/.446 with 13 home runs in 372 at-bats. His defense was shaky, however, with 19 errors and -12 defensive runs saved, so he may be best viewed as the eventual replacement to Brandon Phillips at second base.
Prospects to anticipate: The Reds loaded up on pitching in the Cueto and Leake deal, acquiring three left-handers from the Royals in Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed and John Lamb, and right-hander Keury Mella from the Giants. Baseball America just named Reed the club's No. 2 prospect behind RHP Robert Stephenson, who still has a big fastball but struggles with his control. Stephenson has reached Triple-A and Reed made 13 starts at Double-A with excellent results, so both could reach the majors in 2016.
Winter action plan: Owner Bob Castellini is competitive, but he needs to be realistic about his roster and the much better rosters of the Cardinals, Pirates and Cubs. Sure, he can dream on a healthy Devin Mesoraco and maybe improvement from Bruce and Billy Hamilton, and a rotation that suddenly develops overnight, but the more realistic appraisal is a sub-.500 team going nowhere. In which case it makes sense to shop around Chapman and Bruce, both free agents after 2016, and maybe Frazier, a free agent after 2017. He's a local favorite after winning the Home Run Derby, but he'll be 30 when the season starts and his value may never be higher. The other alternative is to find a left fielder, a couple of starters to give the kids more time in the minors, a couple relievers -- and then what? Hope for a .500 record?
For more on the Reds, check out the Redlog Nation blog.