Big picture - SA have a shot at WTC final

Test cricket's context was cracked open over the last week as South Africa won a first match in the subcontinent in a decade, and New Zealand won their first series in India to prove (some parts of) Asia can be conquered. All that means that the World Test championship (WTC) is alive. Both South Africa and New Zealand remain in contention for the final, with virtually every remaining match a must-win. For South Africa, that starts in Chattogram, where they will play their last away Test of the 2023-25 cycle.

After beating Bangladesh in Mirpur, South Africa will be confident of their chances of a clean sweep - especially as their opposition continues to operate in disarray. Bangladesh replaced their head coach on the eve of the series, which they expected to start with a farewell for Shakib Al Hasan. But he had to make himself unavailable as he was not able to travel to Dhaka. Now, their current captain Najmul Hossain Shanto wants to step away from the leadership after being in charge for less than a year.

Shanto's legacy includes an away Test series win over Pakistan, and a drawn series against New Zealand at home. If this is his last game in charge, he will doubtless want to add South Africa to his list of achievements.

To get that right, Bangladesh will have to acquit themselves better in the first innings, which is where they lost the opening Test. Conditions in Chattogram are expected to be less hostile, but they will also need some of their big names to step up. Mominul Haque and Litton Das, neither of whom got into double-figures last week, are two players on whose shoulders much responsibility rests, as they seek to blunt a South African attack buoyed by a fast-bowling great.

Kagiso Rabada picked up his 300th wicket and his first five-for in Asia in the first Test, and after sitting out white-ball series in recent months, is showing the value of workload management. How he performs on what is expected to be an unhelpful surface in the second Test could define the outcome of the series.

The same might be said of the two spin contingents. Taijul Islam exposed familiar problems in some South Africa batters' reading of turn, and Bangladesh may want to provide him with someone who can offer more support than Nayeem Hasan did. South Africa, too, might seek an extra bowler to add an option to the four frontline bowlers they used in Mirpur, especially as the result has important consequences for them.

South Africa more or less need to win at least four of their five remaining Tests to qualify for the WTC final, and while Bangladesh are out of contention, they will want to do well at home after a major setback.

Form guide

Bangladesh: LLLWW (Last five Tests; most recent first)
South Africa: WWDLL

In the spotlight - Mahmudul Hasan Joy and David Bedingham

With scores of 30 and 40 in the first Test, Mahmudul Hasan Joy was the only Bangladesh batter to get starts in both innings. He will know that a lot depends on him if his side is to bat better. Mahmudul already has a Test century against the same opposition, with his only hundred so far having come in South Africa in 2022, against an attack that included Keshav Maharaj and Wiaan Mulder. Since that hundred, Mahmudul has scored three half-centuries in 21 innings, and none in his last eight. As recently as August, he scored 65 for Bangladesh A against Pakistan A, and will want to re-find form in this most important of matches.

Just seven Tests into his career, David Bedingham will be keen to build on the hundred he scored with an under-strength South Africa team in New Zealand earlier in the year, by showing what he can do in a first-choice team. Since that match, Bedingham has not crossed 40 in six innings, and was dismissed for 11 and 12 in Mirpur. With a first-class average of 51.66, Bedingham is, by a distance, one of South Africa's best batting talents, and will be given a long run in a Test side searching for stability. He'll also know that he carries a reputation as a run-scorer, and is expected to deliver on that soon.

Team News - Jaker Ali ruled out

Batter Jaker Ali has been ruled out of the second Test after suffering from concussion during practice on Sunday. Bangladesh have handed a maiden call up to Mahidul Islam Ankon in his place. But they could yet replace Jaker with a bowler in seamer Nahid Rana, who has four Test caps to his name. Bangladesh might also consider handing a debut to left-arm spinner Hasan Murad in place of offspinner Nayeem, who went wicketless last week.

Bangladesh (probable): 1 Mahmudul Hasan Joy, 2 Shadman Islam, 3 Mominul Haque, 4 Najmul Hossain Shanto (capt), 5 Mushfiqur Rahim, 6 Litton Das (wk), 7 Mehidy Hasan Miraz, 8 Mahidul Islam Ankon/Nahid Rana, 9 Nayeem Hasan/Hasan Murad, 10 Taijul Islam, 11 Hasan Mahmud

Temba Bavuma has been ruled out of this match as he continues to recover from an elbow injury, which will leave Aiden Markram with the leadership role again. Though four bowlers proved enough for South Africa in the first Test, they may want to bulk up their resources at a more batter-friendly venue in Chattogram. That would likely mean benching Matthew Breetzke, and including one of spin-bowling allrounder Senuran Muthusamy or a seamer in either Lungi Ngidi or Dane Paterson.

South Africa (probable): 1 Aiden Markram (capt), 2 Tony de Zorzi, 3 Tristan Stubbs, 4 David Bedingham, 5 Ryan Rickelton, 6 Matthew Breetzke/Senuran Muthumsamy, 7 Kyle Verreynne (wk), 8 Wiaan Mulder, 9 Keshav Maharaj, 10 Dane Piedt, 11 Kagiso Rabada

Pitch and Conditions - Chattogram likely to be batting friendly

After the bounce and turn of Mirpur, which was particularly prevalent on the opening day, Chattogram is expected to be better for batters upfront. It is reputed to be the flattest of all Bangladesh's pitches, with ten totals of over 500 in 24 matches played at this venue. That might make taking 20 wickets a challenge.

The weather is set to be fair for all five days, with no rain forecast, and temperatures in the early 30°C. Humidity is high at over 70%, and South Africa were asked how they were preparing for it. "From a weather point of view, there's not too much we can do besides hydrate well," Markram said.

Stats and Trivia

• Bangladesh have only won two of the 24 Tests they have played at the Zahur Ahmed Chowdhury Stadium in Chattogram, and the last one was almost six years ago. They beat West Indies in 2018, and previously also won a match against Zimbabwe in 2014.

• Before the Mirpur Test, Markram was South Africa's only top-seven batter to have played a Test in the subcontinent, and consequently, the only one to have scored a century in Asia. He has since been joined in the latter category by Kyle Verreynne.

Quotes

"You have asked a very deep question. I don't have an answer to it. This depends a lot on the individual. Some can move on, while others may be affected by [off-field activities]. I personally try to keep away from these things, and stick to my job."
Bangladesh left-arm spinner Taijul Islam on talks of captaincy changes during the series

"It's not much that we pay attention to, to be honest. It's completely outside of our camp, outside of our team... Whatever the Bangladesh team is going through, unfortunately, has got nothing to do with us."
South Africa's stand-in captain Aiden Markram dead-batted questions about captaincy issues in the Bangladesh camp