Big Picture

And so, to the final act. We were on the brink of the ultimate decider which would have been the biggest Test in this country since the corresponding fixture in 2005, and perhaps ever. Sadly, the Manchester weather put paid to that and Australia were able to cling onto the urn as puddles formed on the Old Trafford outfield.
It remains to be seen how well England can rouse themselves in a bid to level the series having played almost the perfect match last time out when the weather allowed. From 2-0 down, a drawn series would be a laudable outcome but, regardless of Ben Stokes saying he will never have regrets, there will surely be nagging thoughts of what could have been, particularly at Edgbaston.

From Australia's point of view, however, this remains a crucial five days having not won a series in England since 2001. They had it within their grasp at Headingley and, unless the weather intervenes significantly again, only 3-1 will allow them to categorically say they have been the better team. They are back at the scene of where the tour began with the World Test Championship victory over India. A lot has happened since then.

But barring the injuries to Nathan Lyon and Ollie Pope, both teams have come through the rigours of the condensed schedule remarkably well to the extent there could be just one change for the final outing - a return for Todd Murphy.

Across the two sides, this will likely be the final Ashes outing for a significant number of players. Many of the leading stars of the series are well into their 30s. There have been rumours of retirements on both sides, but it appears there won't be any definite announcements at a ground that has farewelled many stars.

Until the two days of rain in Manchester this had been a series that had lived up to all the hype. It deserves a memorable finish even if the urn is no longer up for grabs.

Form guide

(last five matches, most recent first)
England DWLLW
Australia DLWWW

In the spotlight: Ben Stokes and Steven Smith

Ben Stokes may not play another Ashes Test. The 2025-26 tour down under is probably touch-and-go given the state of his body. He insists he doesn't have any regret over decisions he has made during the last six weeks, although asked to pick out one moment he would like to have over again he singled out the dropped catch off Lyon when 37 were still needed at Edgbaston. Having put himself through a 12-over spell at Lord's he has not bowled in the last two matches. With England not playing Tests again until January, and him having retired from ODIs, there may be a window to consider any longer-term options to try and repair the damage, although the team have found a way to accommodate him as a batter-captain. He has led a revolution in England's Test cricket but the Ashes has proved agonisingly out of reach.
This series has been a far cry from 2019 for Steven Smith. It was going to be a tall order to scale those 774-run heights, but this time he has passed fifty just once in eight innings - his very fine century at Lord's. At Old Trafford, he fell twice to the pace of Mark Wood and throughout the series England have found ways to combat him better than any other time. But The Oval brings him back to a venue where he has a phenomenal record: an average of 91 and a century in his last outing against India early last month. Can he sign off Ashes cricket in the UK with a standout performance?

Team news: Same again for England; Murphy likely for Australia

England have confirmed an unchanged XI which means another outing for James Anderson despite a series where he has had very limited impact. Chris Woakes has pulled up okay after his quad issue at Old Trafford and Wood will play three Tests in a row.
England 1 Zak Crawley, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Moeen Ali, 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Ben Stokes (capt), 7 Jonny Bairstow (wk), 8 Chris Woakes, 9 Mark Wood, 10 Stuart Broad, 11 James Anderson

Australia will likely bring back offspinner Murphy after he missed out at Old Trafford. There had been question marks over Mitchell Marsh (soreness) and Mitchell Starc (shoulder) but both appear to have recovered. It means Cameron Green looks set to lose his place.

Australia (probable) 1 David Warner, 2 Usman Khawaja, 3 Marnus Labuschagne, 4 Steven Smith, 5 Travis Head, 6 Mitchell Marsh, 7 Alex Carey (wk), 8 Mitchell Starc, 9 Pat Cummins (capt), 10 Todd Murphy, 11 Josh Hazlewood

Pitch and conditions

Two days out, Pat Cummins thought the surface looked "pretty similar" to the one rolled out for the World Test Championship final against India. "Maybe not quite as firm as the final," he added. "A little bit of grass. Not heaps. Looks like a pretty good wicket." Eyes will again be on the weather forecast, although not to the same extent as Old Trafford. There are showers of varying degrees expected on Thursday, Saturday and Monday.

Stats and trivia

• England's series run-rate of 4.68 is the highest for any team in a series where at least four matches have been played

• Stokes needs one catch to 100 in Tests: he would be just the third player to score 6000 runs, take 100 wickets and told 100 catches after Jacques Kallis and Garry Sobers

• Entering what is likely to be his final Ashes encounter, Anderson has not won an Ashes Test since 2015.

• With Stuart Broad again playing all five Tests in the series, it means he has not missed a home Ashes match since he first played in 2009.

Quotes

"Coming into this series I felt like six [Tests] was going to be really busy. But it's all been good. Obviously there have been some challenges, some moments when you scratch your head, but I feel in a really good place physically and in terms of the captaincy. I feel like I'm learning new things every game, and it's been manageable."
Pat Cummins on the challenge of captaincy
"It's a new game and things can play out differently. We just need to go out there and put the same amount of pressure onto Australia as we've been trying to throughout this series. I thought the way we did that at Old Trafford, Australia didn't have an answer, particularly when we had the bat in hand. It was great viewing, watching the lads go about their business with the bat. But same old things: completely different game, and we'll just have to start all over again."
Ben Stokes on whether England can pick up from Old Trafford