Big picture: A banger for the holiday season
We're back where we started with the series level and two teams with both promise and flaws squaring off again on fabled turf. The cricket has been compelling, at times unpredictable. There's even been a little heat between the players. The 2024-25 Border-Gavaskar Trophy is veering dangerously close to classic territory. Imagine if it's 2-2 going into Sydney.
Some of the bowling that's been on show - Harshit Rana taking out Travis Head's off stump in Perth, Pat Cummins returning the favour against Rohit Sharma in Adelaide, Jasprit Bumrah every single time he runs in - has been dreamy. So the Gabba can't be blamed for making eyes at them. One day out, the pitch still retains a tinge of green.
A first-innings average of 18.65 runs per wicket - a figure so rare it's only been bettered once in the last 10 years, and that was in a one-off Test between England and Ireland - reflects not just the class of both teams' bowling attacks, but a little bit about the conditions and the frailty of the batting as well.
Australia are blooding in a new opener and their two most reliable run-scorers aren't operating at the levels they're used to. India will be able to sympathise because like Marnus Labuschagne and Steven Smith, Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma (who could be returning as opener) have been more down than up. The last three are in their mid to late 30s, so their form comes with added scrutiny, on top of the surprise that these high-profile players are yet to really influence this high-profile series. (Kohli has a century but the match-winning innings there came from Yashasvi Jaiswal)
Of course it isn't a surprise that there are surprises when these two teams go at each other. In 2017, Australia took the lead and India hit back. Ditto in 2021. In 2018 and 2023, India took the lead and Australia hit back. This tells you there isn't a lot separating these sides. Australia's win in Indore last year and India's in Perth two weeks ago bucked expectation and there are bound to be more thrills and spills as these two ring in the holiday season.
Form guide
Australia: WLWWL (last five completed matches, most recent first)
India: LWLLL
In the spotlight
Steven Smith has 19 runs in two Tests. His last hundred was 24 innings ago. But there was a 91 not out in there, at the Gabba, which he put forward as proof that his opening the batting for Australia was not really the worst idea. Back at No. 4, due to popular demand, he has had a little trouble starting his innings, trouble that he used to avoid, like getting lbw.
Rishabh Pant continues to do Rishabh Pant things. In Adelaide, with India three down in the 15th over, he charged out of the crease and flayed Scott Boland over cover. He was also seen at Rundle mall, putting his shopping on hold to play peek-a-boo with a little kid. Now he's at the scene of his greatest triumph as a cricketer after his greatest triumph as a person.
Australia captain on leaving out Boland, the pitch, and the form of some senior batters
Team news: Will Rohit move back up the order?
India might be pondering changes, particularly around the make-up of their top order. Does Rohit come back up to open again? Is he feeling like his old self again? There were positive signs in the nets on Thursday, where almost all the batters, Kohli and Shubman Gill especially, were upping their back-foot game.
Akash Deep was India's third fast bowler during the home season and he made way in Perth for a better batter. The team does not consider their depth to be a big concern anymore so Harshit Rana might find his way back on the bench. Washington Sundar might be pushing R Ashwin for a place in the XI as well.
India (probable): 1 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 2 Rohit Sharma (capt)/ KL Rahul, 3 Shubman Gill, 4 Virat Kohli, 5 Rishabh Pant (wk), 6 KL Rahul/Rohit Sharma (capt), 7 Nitish Kumar Reddy, 8 Washington Sundar/R Ashwin, 9 Akash Deep, 10 Mohammed Siraj, 11 Jasprit Bumrah
Australia's first-choice pace attack will reassemble at the Gabba with Josh Hazelwood rejoining Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins.
Australia: 1 Usman Khawaja, 2 Nathan McSweeney, 3 Marnus Labuschagne, 4 Steven Smith, 5 Travis Head, 6 Mitchell Marsh, 7 Alex Carey (wk), 8 Pat Cummins (capt), 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Josh Hazlewood
Pitch and conditions: Some wet weather around
Australia have lost two of their last four Tests here, after losing nothing in 32 years. There was a pattern to those two defeats though. Both took place at the end of the season, in January. In between, there was a Test against South Africa in December 2022, which ended in two days and was a party for the fast bowlers. And also one against England in December 2021 that ended in a nine-wicket win for Australia. Early-season cricket here is fast-bowler friendly, a likelihood further increased by rain forecast through the course of the Test.
"[Yesterday it] looked like a good wicket, like it has the last few years," Cummins said. "Bit of sun baking on it the last couple of days, don't think it's as green and leafy as it was against South Africa."
Stats and trivia
Jasprit Bumrah is averaging 11.25 runs per wicket this series. The next best for India is Mohammed Siraj with 19.77 but then the gulf widens.
Travis Head is averaging 80 and striking at 94 in this series. The next best for Australia is Alex Carey with 24 and 59.5. There's a bit of catching up to do there for the hosts.
Pat Cummins has an outstanding record at the Gabba: in seven Tests he has taken 40 wickets at 18.22
India could have just four players from the famous 2020-21 victory at the Gabba: Rohit, Gill, Pant and Siraj. It could be five if Washington plays.
Quotes
"Worked out in the Adelaide Test. It's always in the back of your mind as a Plan B, or if it's looking really uncomfortable or likely to take wickets maybe it becomes a Plan A to some of the batters. I'm sure we'll give it a shot at some point this Test."
Australia captain Pat Cummins on using the short ball against India's batters
"The mood of the team is very good. We had a team dinner yesterday, we had a lot of fun in the team dinner. I think it is very important to know that we didn't play well in the Test match in Adelaide, but still the series is one-all. We have a series of three matches, and if we win this match, then in Melbourne and Sydney, I think we will have an upper hand there."
India batter Shubman Gill
