Big picture
Sri Lanka have played one game in the Asia Cup so far, and won it. But if things go awry against Afghanistan on Tuesday, they very well could be out of the tournament; such is the nature of it. But for that to happen, Afghanistan need to win - and win big. How big will depend on the precise match situation, but hypothetically speaking, if they were to score 275 runs batting first, they would need to win by a margin of at least 68 runs, or chase down any target in 35 overs or less.
Suffice to say this gives Sri Lanka a pretty nifty buffer, especially on a Lahore surface that has been positively greedy for runs. This will also be, you imagine, quite a relief for Sri Lanka's batters, who have over the past month - primarily during the LPL - been subjected to far less batter-friendly tracks.
That said, the toss is likely to play a pretty major role. While the team bowling second might have to contend with dew, it's an arguably rougher deal for the side bowling first as they would have to do so in the searing Lahore heat. Indeed, speaking post match on Sunday after their win against Afghanistan, Bangladesh captain Shakib Al Hasan brought it up unprompted as one of the key reasons they won that match, pointing out that it wouldn't have been easy for Afghanistan to bat after fielding in that heat for 50 overs.
Match conditions aside, Sri Lanka facing Afghanistan should be a fairly even contest. Of the last five completed ODIs between these two sides, Sri Lanka edge it 3-2. And this is now a Sri Lanka side without pretty much their entire first-choice bowling attack. These sides, however, don't tend to have too many nail-biters, with four of those five games ending in pretty dominant wins.
If you're of Afghan persuasion, that's a promising sign; but you have to imagine the odds are still pretty heavily stacked in Sri Lanka's favour. Against Bangladesh, Sri Lanka showed that even with injuries, they still possess enough firepower and nous to take ten wickets in a match, while Afghanistan still have to disprove the notion that their batting is a soft touch once you get past the top order.
Form guide
Afghanistan LLLLL (last five ODIs, most recent first)
Sri Lanka WWWWW
In the spotlight
Rahmanullah Gurbaz has been a part of every single edition of the LPL, so the Sri Lankans will be quite familiar with his game. Which means they'll know that if allowed to proceed unchecked, he is a genuine match winner. Gurbaz also has the propensity to either go big or go home; in his last ten ODI innings, he has scores of 145 and 151, even as five others were in single digits. His highest score in that period aside from his centuries is 22. A firing Gurbaz is a must if Afghanistan are to complete this escape act.
The nature of Lahore's pitch means that any result is pretty much a shootout between each side's respective batters, but in Maheesh Theekshana, Sri Lanka possess a secret weapon. Theekshana is as consistent as they come: in 23 ODIs, he has grabbed at least one wicket in all but five matches, while his economy rate has breached the five-runs-per-over mark just five times. The only caveat is that he has played all these matches either at home or in Zimbabwe, both providing conditions that have suited him quite nicely. In Lahore, he won't have that luxury, but it's a test he will most certainly relish.
Team news
Afghanistan's bowlers struggled against Bangladesh, with the seamers in particular taking some stick. Noor Ahmad is an option to replace one of Karim Janat or Gulbadin Naib, while Riaz Hassan could also come in to freshen up the middle order.
Afghanistan (probable): 1 Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), 2 Ibrahim Zadran, 3 Rahmat Shah, 4 Hashmatullah Shahidi (capt), 5 Najibullah Zadran, 6 Mohammad Nabi, 7 Gulbadin Naib 8 Karim Janat, 9 Rashid Khan, 10 Mujeeb Ur Rahman, 11 Fazalhaq Farooqi
Sri Lanka will likely head in with an unchanged XI, though if they were to include Kusal Perera in the side, one of Dimuth Karunaratne or Pathum Nissanka could make way. Dushan Hemantha also provides a wristspin option.
Sri Lanka (probable): 1 Dimuth Karunaratne, 2 Pathum Nissanka, 3 Kusal Mendis (wk), 4 Sadeera Samarawickrama, 5 Charith Asalanka 6 Dhananjaya de Silva, 7 Dasun Shanaka (capt), 8 Dushan Hemantha/Dunith Wellalage, 9 Maheesh Theekshana, 10 Kasun Rajitha 11 Matheesha Pathirana
Pitch and conditions
Scores of 300 are par for the course in Lahore, with Bangladesh hitting 334 last time out without much trouble. The weather too is expected to be hot and humid, with highs touching 37 degrees potentially, although it should settle around 26 degrees by evening. Winning the toss and batting first seems a no-brainer.
Stats and trivia
A win would see Sri Lanka record a 12th consecutive ODI victory, the second-longest such streak in history. Pakistan (once) and South Africa (twice) have also won 12 in a row, while Australia hold the all-time record with 21 straight wins.
Sri Lanka have played 13 matches in Lahore, and won nine. Their win percentage of 69.23% is the highest of any side to have played at least ten games at the Gaddafi Stadium there.
Rahmanullah Gurbaz is 46 runs away from reaching 1000 ODI runs.
