Big picture: Two teams on an upward trajectory
Sri Lanka's men are third on the World Test Championship table, with a win percentage of 55.56, and South Africa are right on their heels, on 54.17. Both are in striking distance of a top-two finish, for which presently, there are five serious contenders - India, Australia, and New Zealand being the other three.
Ordinarily, this is enough to make this a tilt worth watching (there are distractions such as some Border-Gavaskar Trophy, plus a New Zealand vs England series elsewhere, apparently), but there are further layers of dramatic potential here. Sri Lanka, if you remember, are the only Asian team to ever have beaten South Africa at home in a series, back in 2019. Seven players from this current Sri Lanka squad had played roles in that 2-0 sweep.
And in Durban, Sri Lanka have never once lost a Test, having played three there. In fact, they have won their two most recent games at Kingsmead, Rangana Herath's wizardry having delivered their first triumph on South African soil back in 2011, before the Kusal Perera special sent them screaming to one of the most miraculous wins in Test history in 2019.
But while the Sri Lanka team of that 2019 tour were held together by hope and kinesiology tape, this one seems to be building to something? (We ask tentatively, as this is a strange assertion to make for Sri Lanka teams over the last decade.) So far this year, they have won six Tests, the most impressive of which was their victory at The Oval. And they have what is increasingly beginning to seem like a seam-bowling outfit. Asitha Fernando, Vishwa Fernando, and Lahiru Kumara are the likely starters. But they have others like Kasun Rajitha and Milan Rathnayake who have had good showings in overseas conditions too.
South Africa, meanwhile, are on an upward trajectory of their own. They'd sent what amounted to about an E-team to New Zealand for a pasting in February, but since then, their big dogs back in the XI, have won away series in West Indies and Bangladesh. They're at the start of their home summer now, so presumably they are overflowing with confidence. The one wrinkle in all of this is that they haven't especially loved playing at Kingsmead over the past 15 years. Since the start of 2010, they have lost five matches to the two they have won at this venue. While South Africa quicks revel in the extra bounce their home surfaces usually deliver, the coastal venues, and this one in particular, tends to play slower and lower in comparison.
On top of which, South Africa captain Temba Bavuma has said that they will not be requesting made-to-order green tops on this tour, which will please Sri Lanka's batters especially. That doesn't mean there will be no bounce or movement. Shukri Conrad, South Africa's head coach, said he expected "some good pace" at Kingsmead. But expect the surface to take turn on the later days, especially. South Africa have some skillful seamers, but their spin attack will be tested here too.
Form guide
South Africa WWWDL
Sri Lanka WWWLL (Last five completed matches, most recent first)
In the spotlight: Keshav Maharaj and Kamindu Mendis
No bowler in this match knows the Kingsmead surface better than Keshav Maharaj. He was born in Durban, has played all his first-class cricket for the KwaZulu Natal Dolphins, and averages 21.52 in Tests at the venue. Though he has 54 Tests on his resume now, he's only played three in his hometown, though. Partly, this is down to Covid. But one of those matches was against Sri Lanka, on that 2019 tour, and he took three wickets for 87 runs in that match. This sounds like it wasn't especially impressive, but when one of the greatest innings of all time is being played by the opposition, it's not terrible. He is also five years down the road in his development now, and at 34, should be in his spin-bowling prime. How Maharaj fares against Sri Lanka's batters will go a long way to determining this series, you suspect.
When will the Kamindu Mendis fever dream end? Eight Tests in, he has five hundreds - in three different countries - and in September became the fastest player to 1000 Test runs in 74 years. That average of 91.27 has to come down at some point, surely? But then people said that about him when he was in England, in August. His average was only in the 80s then. Though he is an all-format player for Sri Lanka now, Kamindu's prowess has been limited to Tests for now - he is only a decent white-ball player, though his being able to bowl with either arm is likely more useful in those formats. Can he take this rocket-fueled start to a Test career to a whole new continent? In any case, there has never been a Sri Lanka batter who has been this hot out of the gate.
Team news: Sri Lanka ponder attack
*South Africa named their XI on the eve of the Test and picked Gerald Coetzee over the left-arm spin of Senuran Muthusamy, to join the pace attack of Kagiso Rabada, Marco Jansen and Wiaan Mulder, with Keshav Maharaj the lone spinner.
South Africa: 1 Aiden Markram, 2 Tony de Zorzi, 3 Tristan Stubbs, 4 Temba Bavuma (capt.), 5 David Bedingham, 6 Kyle Verreynne (wk), 7 Marco Jansen, 8 Wiaan Mulder, 9 Gerald Coetzee, 9 Keshav Maharaj, 11 Kagiso Rabada
Seven Sri Lanka players have been in Durban for at least two weeks, and they should have a full complement of cricketers to choose from. They have decisions to make on the bowling front. They will likely go with Milan Rathnayake, for the batting value he adds. But do they pick Vishwa Fernando or Lahiru Kumara? Vishwa brings in the left-arm angle and has had success in Durban. But Kumara has the pace to trouble batters.
Sri Lanka (possible): 1 Dimuth Karuanaratne, 2 Pathum Nissanka, 3 Dinesh Chandimal, 4 Angelo Mathews, 5 Kamindu Mendis, 6 Dhananjaya de Silva (capt), 7 Kusal Mendis (wk), 8 Milan Rathnayake, 9 Prabath Jayasuriya, 10 Asitha Fernando, 11 Lahiru Kumara/Vishwa Fernando
Pitch and conditions: A wet start to the Test?
Some pace and bounce is likely early on, but if the sun falls on this Kingsmead pitch, expect it to become a little lower, and slower. Sun, though, might be in short supply early on in this match, with showers forecast for Wednesday, and overcast conditions predicted for Thursday.
Stats and trivia
Maharaj's best-ever figures have come against Sri Lanka - his 9 for 129 in the first innings at the SSC, in Colombo, in 2018.
Kamindu Mendis' away average so far, from nine innings, is 79.25. Five of those knocks came in England, where he averages 53.40, his lowest in any country.
In the nine Tests these teams have played since the start of 2015, South Africa have won five and Sri Lanka four. All but two of these Tests were in South Africa.
If Prabath Jayasuriya gets three wickets in Durban - his 17th Test - he will become the joint second-fastest bowler to 100 Test wickets, behind George Lohmann, who made his debut in the 19th century. Among players active since 1950, only Yasir Shah has done it in 17 Tests.
Lahiru Kumara is also closing in on 100 dismissals. He'd be the fifth Sri Lanka fast bowler to the milestone, behind Chaminda Vaas, Lasith Malinga, Dilhara Fernando, and Suranga Lakmal.
Quotes
"Neil [McKenzie]) was good. He was with us for a week. It was a good week, and we got some points from him. We went to a lot of batting sessions with him. He's a very good cricketer and a very open person, so we took a lot of his information. How do we adapt to this bounce? How do we adapt to these conditions? How do we adapt to this seam? How do we adapt to this ground condition? We took a lot of things."
Dhanajaya da Silva on how SL have been picking the brains of one of South Africa's best, who consulted with them"The team is as ready as it can be. We've had a good camp at the HPC (High Performance Centre) last week. We've come here to Kingsmead and we've equipped ourselves as well as we could. There's a lot of excitement amongst the group. We have four games left in our Test Championship, and every game is as important as a final so guys are as ready as I said. Guys are excited. And I'm excited to be back within the team again. I think you should be seeing some good stuff from the guys."
Temba Bavuma on being back with the squad*1100 hours: The story was updated after South Africa named their XI
