Big Picture - Delhi conditions could be Sri Lanka's friend
Sri Lanka could hardly have picked a tougher opponent to face first up at the World Cup than South Africa.
The Sri Lankans come into this game with big question marks over their batting and have an injury-weakened bowling attack; South Africa, in contrast, seem to be a well-oiled machine, primed for the flat tracks this World Cup is expected to offer.
Where South Africa might have some concerns is in their bowling. With Anrich Nortje and Sisanda Magala ruled out with injury, they are lacking a bit of bite up front and at the death. Then, in the spin department, too, with just Keshav Maharaj and Tabraiz Shamsi available, their options are not as varied as is the case with some other teams (such as Sri Lanka). But they more than make up for this with a batting line-up in fine fettle.
Indeed, while Sri Lanka fret about the lack of power-hitters at six and seven, South Africa have stacked their line-up with them. At the top, there's Quinton de Kock, and if he doesn't get you, well, then there's the middle order of Aiden Markram, Heinrich Klaasen and David Miller. And this is all before you get to the lower-middle order, which has Marco Jansen and Andile Phehlukwayo. Of them, only Phehlukwayo strikes at less than 90 (88.04) in ODIs.
Sri Lanka have just a solitary batter in the top six hitting at above 90, Kusal Perera. But he's just returning from injury and it's not certain he can churn out runs consistently over 50 overs.
In terms of others who can score big runs fast, Kusal Mendis is the obvious shout, but even with his blistering 158 laying a platform, Sri Lanka's lower-middle order wasn't able to capitalise against Afghanistan in their warm-up game. There is solidity after that in Charith Asalanka and Dhananjaya de Silva, but if quick runs are needed, there really only is Dasun Shanaka, who has been in such woeful recent form that he was nearly dropped from the squad altogether.
Fortunately for Sri Lanka, this game is taking place in Delhi. On a pitch that is usually slow and crumbly, Sri Lanka have the right bowlers.
In their last 15 games, Sri Lanka have bowled out the opposition in 14. Sure, the ease with which both Bangladesh and Afghanistan brushed them aside in the warm-ups highlighted the task their bowlers are likely to face, but in Delhi, they might just have their way.
They will however have to do so without their star man. Maheesh Theekshana has linked up with the squad late, but this game comes too soon for him in his recovery from a hamstring tear.* This means the spin bowling onus will be squarely on Dunith Wellalage, Dushan Hemantha and Dhananjaya.
South Africa meanwhile won't have fond memories of Delhi, with their last outing there in October 2022 seeing them skittled for 99. Though if the surface turns out more like the one that was in place during their T20I chase of 212 just a few months prior to that, Sri Lanka will have their work cut out for them.
Form guide
South Africa WWWLL (last five completed matches, most recent first)
Sri Lanka LWLWW
In the spotlight: Aiden Markram and Dhananjaya de Silva
While Klaasen is undoubtedly South Africa's man of the moment, ticking along with him has been Aiden Markram, who is in the midst of the best year of his ODI career. His 11 innings in 2023 have so far brought 577 runs at 64.11 and a strike rate of 119.70 - significantly above his career figures of 35.42 and 96.35 - to go with an equally impressive record in T20Is and Tests. He has the ability and resolve to navigate slow turners, which could prove crucial in Delhi, especially in the middle overs, where Sri Lanka throttle with spin so well. That Markram has a solid record against Sri Lanka - second only to his record against Australia among Test-playing nations - is a bonus. If the Delhi surface is conducive to turn, Markram's experience could be massive.
Sri Lanka's spate of injuries means that Dhananjaya de Silva will likely start this tournament with an unexpectedly critical role in terms of providing team balance. With the bat, coming in at six, he will be tasked with providing impetus in the latter overs alongside his out-of-sorts captain - a role he's not exactly suited for considering his career ODI strike rate of 78.80, but one that Sri Lanka will need him to settle into quickly. Then with ball, with Theekshana ruled out, Dunith Wellalage still fairly green and Shanaka potentially only fit enough to bat, there's every chance he'll be required to bowl 10 overs - something he's done just 11 times over 67 innings.
Team news
South Africa's batting pretty much picks itself when everyone is fully fit, but it's in the bowling where there's a bit of uncertainty. While Maharaj is a shoo-in, if they do choose to go with Shamsi as an extra spin option, Phelukwayo could make way.
South Africa (probable XI): 1 Temba Bavuma (capt), 2 Quinton de Kock (wk), 3 Rassie van der Dussen, 4 Aiden Markram, 5 Heinrich Klaasen, 6 David Miller, 7 Marco Jansen, 8 Gerald Coetzee, 9 Andile Phelukwayo/Tabraiz Shamsi, 10 Keshav Maharaj, 11 Kagiso Rabada
Perera and Shanaka have been passed fit after missing Sri Lanka's last warm-up, but Theekshana misses out. This means Dushan Hemantha is likely to fill in once more.
Sri Lanka (probable XI): 1 Kusal Perera, 2 Pathum Nissanka, 3 Kusal Mendis (wk), 4 Sadeera Samarawickrama, 5 Charith Asalanka, 6 Dhananjaya de Silva, 7 Dasun Shanaka (capt), 8 Dunith Wellalage, 9 Dushan Hemantha, 10 Dilshan Madushanka, 11 Lahiru Kumara
Lower middle-order is their Achilles heel but in subcontinent, they can overcome that concern
Pitch and conditions
Spin in particular could prove useful in Delhi, unlike in other parts of India, and it's traditionally not been a high-scoring venue - 300 had been topped only twice in ODIs, and last in 2011. The weather is expected to be hot and humid with highs of around 37 degrees Celsius, so batting first might be the play.
Stats and trivia
The last time Sri Lanka played in Delhi, in 2009, the match was called off because of a dangerous surface
In 26 ODIs, only twice have 300-plus scores been recorded at the venue
In six World Cup games between them, South Africa have won four, including the last three, with one ending in a tie. Sri Lanka's solitary win came in their first exchange, in 1992
Quotes
"The biggest thing is our character. You'll hear a lot of guys speak about our resilience. I think that's something that really stands for us in good point. There's also a willingness or desire from guys to put in the big performances for the team."
Temba Bavuma is backing his players to perform under pressure
"When we're walking around in Colombo, everybody wants to talk cricket. There is so much love for the game. And I think it would be huge if we could put a good show on here for them. And bring a smile back into the country's faces with what we're trying to do."
Chris Silverwood, Sri Lanka's head coach, wants to give something back to the fans
*The preview was updated after news came in of Maheesh Theekshana missing out.
