Big picture
At the start of IPL 2022, not many would have expected Mumbai Indians and Chennai Super Kings to be lurking at the bottom of the points table for most of the season. But that's how it has turned out to be. Five-time champions Mumbai are out of the race for the playoffs, while defending champions Super Kings are hanging by the thinnest of the threads.
On Thursday, Super Kings might have a slight advantage, though. They are coming off what their captain MS Dhoni called "a perfect game", while Mumbai would be smarting from a 52-run defeat against Kolkata Knight Riders despite Jasprit Bumrah's five-for.
But Super Kings are not too worried about if and how they can qualify for the playoffs. In fact, they seem to have already started planning for the next year.
In Ruturaj Gaikwad and Devon Conway, they have figured out their opening pair. The two have put together one half-century and two century stands in just four innings. In the bowling department, Mukesh Choudhary seems to have turned the page after a poor start to the season.
Mumbai, too, can follow that path and try out uncapped South African Tristan Stubbs. He could replace Ramandeep Singh, with Basil Thampi coming in for Riley Meredith to keep the overseas players' count to four. Or, Stubbs can replace an out-of-form Kieron Pollard in a direct swap, but that will leave Rohit Sharma with just five bowling options. And if there is a match Mumbai want Pollard the bowler for, it's this one. (See "Strategy punts")
In the news
A bruised rib has cut short Ravindra Jadeja's IPL 2022. He picked up the injury while fielding against Royal Challengers Bangalore.
Suryakumar Yadav, Mumbai's most successful batter this season, too has been ruled out of the remainder of the tournament with a forearm injury he suffered during the match against Gujarat Titans.
Likely XIs
Chennai Super Kings 1 Ruturaj Gaikwad, 2 Devon Conway, 3 Moeen Ali, 4 Robin Uthappa, 5 Shivam Dube, 6 Ambati Rayudu, 7 MS Dhoni (capt & wk), 8 Dwayne Bravo, 9 Simarjeet Singh, 10 Maheesh Theekshana, 11 Mukesh Choudhary
Mumbai Indians 1 Rohit Sharma (capt), 2 Ishan Kishan (wk), 3 Tilak Varma, 4 Tristan Stubbs/Ramandeep Singh, 5 Tim David, 6 Kieron Pollard, 7 Daniel Sams, 8 Hrithik Shokeen, 9 Kumar Kartikeya, 10 Jasprit Bumrah, 11 Basil Thampi/Riley Meredith
Strategy punts
So far this season Shivam Dube has scored 279 runs in nine innings, at an average of 34.87 and a strike rate of 160.34. But Mumbai could bring on Bumrah against him. Bumrah has got Dube out twice in 17 balls while giving away only ten runs.
Super Kings have three left-handers in their top six. Mumbai can counter that by bringing in offspinner Hrithik Shokeen for legspinner M Ashwin.
Pollard has had an underwhelming season with the bat but against Super Kings, he could be handy with the ball. He has dismissed Conway three times in 17 balls for just 17 runs. He has been successful against Robin Uthappa too, with three dismissals in 32 balls for 42 runs. Against Moeen Ali, it's two dismissals in 25 balls for 25 runs. So Mumbai may use his bowling skills more than they usually do.
Stats that matter
In IPL 2022, Pollard has scored only 144 runs in 11 innings at an average of 14.40 and a strike rate of 107.46. Among those who have faced a minimum of 100 balls, only Kane Williamson (96.13) and Ajinkya Rahane (100.96) have a lower strike rate. His numbers against spin are even worse: five dismissals at an average of 6.80 and a strike rate of 82.92.
Rohit, too, has struggled against spin this season, scoring only 33 runs off 32 balls while being dismissed four times.
Bumrah has contrasting numbers against Gaikwad and Dhoni. Gaikwad has taken him for 21 runs off ten balls without getting out, while Dhoni has scored only 60 runs off 60 balls against him with three dismissals.
