After allowing five goals during the group stage of the Copa Libertadores, Toluca fell apart in the first leg of the round of 16 with a 4-0 away loss to Sao Paulo. The Brazilian side was dominant during Thursday night and was unlucky to not have a couple more goals sneak past Toluca goalkeeper Alfredo Talavera.
Los Diablos Rojos now have an intimidating task at hand and will likely need one of their best-ever performances next week during the second leg in Toluca.
Here are five lessons from Thursday night's loss against Sao Paulo:
1. Toluca likely to get knocked out now
The reality of the situation is that Toluca are unlikely to make it into the quarterfinals of the Copa Libertadores. With a four-goal deficit, and no away goals scored, the team will need to be near-perfect next Wednesday.
On Thursday night, there was no energy or drive from Toluca. The club could hardly hold onto possession and didn't have a single shot against Sao Paulo until the 67th minute of the game. Toluca slowly gained possession, and fired two more shots, but was overrun by the home side that bombarded visitors with 25 shots of their own.
Looking ahead, manager Jose Cardozo also has to deal with a tough schedule during the next week. With Clausura matches against Cruz Azul this Sunday and Monterrey next Saturday, Cardozo and his men will need to take part in three games in just seven days, further complicating the task at hand.
2. Toluca should focus on Liga MX
Cardozo will need to bite the bullet very soon. Attempting to qualify for the Liga MX playoffs and the next round of the Copa Libertadores might be too much for his starting players to handle.
Overcoming the four-goal deficit against Sao Paulo appears nearly impossible, but finishing in the top eight of the Clausura tournament might appear more likely for the manager.
Although there are doubts about walking away with one point against Monterrey in the final match of the regular season, Toluca could still potentially qualify for the liguilla with a win against Cruz Azul this Sunday. The team will also need some results to work in their favor to solidify a place in playoffs, but the odds appear more likely than continuing in the Copa Libertadores.
The unfortunate truth is that whether Cardozo chooses to focus on the South American competition or Liga MX, the manager might not have much time left if he isn't able to find success with either one this season.
3. Cardozo may soon be out of a job
Toluca fans are likely feeling restless with Cardozo. Although the 45-year-old has gained plenty of respect as the all-time leading goalscorer for the club, the manager has yet to claim a single title with the squad since taking over in 2013.
It's not as if Toluca hasn't had a chance to fight for a trophy either. With Cardozo in charge, his teams have taken part in the liguilla four times, the Copa MX playoffs twice, a CONCACAF Champions League final once and, most recently, the round of 16 of the Copa Libertadores. While it's impressive that the 45-year-old has been able to help carry his team to these heights, the manager has emerged empty-handed every time.
If Cardozo fails to qualify for the liguilla and exits out of the Copa Libertadores next week, it wouldn't be too surprising if ownership begins to looks elsewhere for a new manager.
4. Toluca were better in group stage
After cruising through the group stage with four wins, one draw and a loss, it was disappointing to see Toluca fall apart against Sao Paulo. Granted, the Brazilian side is one of the most popular and powerful in the country, but there was not a single ounce of the same zeal and fight that was seen from Toluca in previous matches.
However, it must also be noted that numerous starters were unavailable for the team on Thursday evening. Backup options like Nicolas Saucedo and Erbin Trejo only had a handful of starts beforehand and struggled to make an impact during the loss.
Alongside Saucedo was 18-year-old striker Alexis Vega. The youngster has shown plenty of promise but recently made his Liga MX debut just two months ago. Unfortunately for Toluca, Vega will be added to the list of unavailable players next week after receiving a direct red in the 88th minute of Thursday night's loss.
With or without key players, Los Diablos Rojos were excellent during the group stage, but have now put themselves in a troublesome position for the upcoming second leg.
5. Pumas last Liga MX club left
Recognizing the near-miracle that will need to occur in the second leg next week, all the hopes and dreams of a Liga MX team clinching a first-ever Copa Libertadores title now lands on the shoulders of Pumas.
Los Felinos were defeated by Deportivo Tachira 1-0 on Tuesday night, but are much more likely to overcome their deficit than Toluca.
Unfortunately, like Cardozo, Pumas manager Guillermo Vazquez is also fighting for a spot in the Liga MX playoffs. With crucial matches against Queretaro and America, Vazquez will need to find a balance for his upcoming games that will decide whether he is able to take part in the liguilla and the quarterfinals of the Copa Libertadores.