Certain truths are self-evident in St. Louis, where everyone in a Cardinals uniform stresses the team ethic and maintaining the requisite focus no matter what obstacles arise. Panic is forbidden in the shadow of the Gateway Arch, and everyone adheres to the organizational mantra.
The Cardinals raise boring to new levels at times, but it's hard to argue with the results.
Even before an embarrassing computer hacking scandal subjected them to an FBI investigation and put a crimp in the organizational "brand," the Cardinals were dealing with a dispiriting setback. It occurred on April 25, when staff ace Adam Wainwright went down for the year with a torn Achilles tendon. The prognosis called for a recovery of nine to 12 months, and Wainwright remains a long shot to pitch this year no matter how sunny he is with his public pronouncements of a comeback.
As the Cardinals keep churning along with the best record (53-28) and run differential (plus-91) in the game, it's a tribute to their depth and resolve. They've overcome the loss of first baseman Matt Adams for the season with a torn right quadriceps, and they're hoping that outfielder Matt Holliday will return shortly from a right quad strain and help revive a struggling offense.
The Cardinals' title ambitions are rooted primarily in pitching. They lead the majors with a 2.60 staff ERA and 56 quality starts, and closer Trevor Rosenthal should make the National League All-Star team in recognition of his 24 saves, 0.70 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
The starting four of John Lackey, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez looks like a good bet to hold up through September. But how will the Cardinals stack up in October, when someone not named Adam Wainwright will be taking the mound in a series opener?
That's the salient question among MLB executives, scouts and media members who wonder how the Cardinals will fare when they have to go head-to-head with Max Scherzer and the Nationals, or a Clayton Kershaw-Zack Greinke combination in Los Angeles. St. Louis general manager John Mozeliak hears it all the time.
"People say to me, 'What are you going to do without Wainwright when you get to the postseason?'" Mozeliak said. "My first thought is, 'We better get there first.' I don't even think about how we're going to replace Waino, because from a talent and leadership standpoint, he's very special. But on a given day, the five guys in our rotation are all pitching like No. 1s. It's hard to say that when you get to October, they won't."
The topic elicits a minimal response from Cardinals manager Mike Matheny, who is no fan of addressing hypothetical scenarios when he has nine innings on the docket today. He's very Tony La Russa-like in that regard.
"We'd love to have Adam back," Matheny said. "We'll take him back with bells on. But until he's there, we're going to be fine. Everybody just needs to do their part and compete and not overthink this stuff. It makes for a great story, and I get it. But not for us."
Budding aces
Lynn and Lackey have combined for 21 quality starts in 31 outings and been as reliable as the Cardinals expected. But Wacha, 24, and Martinez, 23, are the guys who have put St. Louis over the hump in surviving the loss of Wainwright.
Martinez, primarily a reliever in his first two big league seasons, ranks eighth among NL starters in ERA (2.70), strikeouts per nine innings (9.45) and pitcher WAR (2.5). And Wacha has recovered nicely after missing 2½ months with a stress fracture in his right shoulder blade last season. When we last saw him in 2014, Wacha was dejectedly walking off the mound after allowing a climactic homer to Travis Ishikawa in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series. But his flat-line personality allowed him to return in spring training with no residual scars.
"It wasn't a great situation, but Michael is mature beyond his years," Mozeliak said. "I think his only thought was, 'I'm never going to let this happen again.'"
If there was a temptation among St. Louis' young starters to feel burdened by the absence of Wainwright, the manager convinced them not to worry about the big picture. That's his purview.
"I just want them to go pitch, and that's what they've done," Matheny said. "They go out and do their thing, and they understand, 'It's not my job to be half of Adam Wainwright, and you be the other half.' It's, 'I'm going to be the best Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez I can be, and we'll take it from there. I'm not going to put more on myself than I need to.' They've done a good job of minimizing those distractions."
By all accounts, Martinez has matured greatly and taken his professional dedication to a new level after the offseason death of his close friend, Cardinals outfielder Oscar Taveras, in a car crash. He has achieved success by cultivating a wicked changeup that he's thrown 19 percent of the time as a complement to his fastball and slider. Lefties are hitting .083 with a .233 slugging percentage against the change, so it's achieving its intended purpose.
Wacha, who averaged a strikeout per inning as a rookie in 2013, is pitching to contact and inducing fewer swings and misses this season. But he's averaging a relatively tidy 15.3 pitches per inning, and he's found a new toy in the cut fastball. Wacha throws the pitch about 16 percent of the time, and opponents have a meager .622 OPS against it.
"I feel like I've gotten better command and control of it, so I can throw it in different spots," Wacha said. "It's important not to fall in love with it, because throwing any pitch too much can hurt you. The most important thing is trying to spot it up and keep guys off balance and miss barrels with it."
Every conversation about the evolution of the Cardinals' young starters ultimately gets back to Yadier Molina. He ranks 10th among 88 catchers in pitch framing, according to Statcorner, and he's thrown out 12 of 30 runners attempting to steal. Beyond that, Molina has an uncanny ability to calm nerves and slow pulse rates from a distance of 60 feet, 6 inches. His pitchers have faith in him, and he returns the favor.
"Those guys got experience when they came up in 2013 and we went to the World Series," Molina said of Wacha and Martinez. "They trust each other and they trust what they've got. They believe they've got enough to get people out."
Trade deadline beckons
The yellow caution flags surrounding the St. Louis staff revolve around health and innings pitched. Jaime Garcia has been excellent in seven outings, but he logged a total of 99 innings over 16 starts during the 2013-14 seasons, and now he's back on the disabled list with a groin injury.
Wacha and Martinez merit watching because of their previous workloads. Wacha has yet to surpass seven innings or 112 pitches in a start this season, and he has received at least one extra day of rest between starts in six of his 16 appearances. The Cardinals have taken a similar approach with Martinez, conserving pitches and innings now in case they might need them later.
"The biggest thing for us, if we get to October, is making sure guys have enough in the tank to go forward," Mozeliak said. "We're cognizant of it. If there are ways to bake in extra off days or time as the season unfolds, we will do that."
The Cardinals have made deft use of their system to fill in the gaps -- summoning Tyler Lyons and Tim Cooney from the minors for spot starts. They're also cautiously optimistic that Marco Gonzales will be able to return from a shoulder injury by late July and give the staff an additional boost. If the Cardinals can maintain a sizable lead in the NL Central, it will give them more latitude to back off Martinez and Wacha and keep them fresh for the long haul.
The other option, of course, is trading for a difference-maker. Philadelphia's Cole Hamels, Cincinnati's Johnny Cueto and Chicago's Jeff Samardzija are three who spring to mind. But the Reds might not be thrilled with the prospect of trading Cueto to a hated division rival, even as a rental, and the White Sox have enough at stake this year that they're going to refrain from throwing up a white flag for as long as possible. In addition, several other teams appear more motivated than St. Louis to upgrade their rotations. Toronto, Houston, the Yankees, Dodgers and Cubs are among the other contenders that have been linked to the starting pitcher market.
You'll get a wide range of opinions on how active the Cardinals should be between now and July 31.
"Right now, it looks like they would be taxing some young guys beyond where they've ever been taxed before," said an NL scout. "I think Hamels would be a great fit there. You'd have to think that acquiring a Hamels would make them a pretty good favorite to win a World Series."
Mozeliak acknowledges that circumstances are fluid and a general manager would be foolish to close his mind to any avenues of improvement. But the Cardinals have a middle-of-the-pack farm system, so they're not awash in trade chips. And it's just as likely Mozeliak will spend his resources adding a left-handed bat to fill the void left by Adams' injury.
Mozeliak's history suggests that he's not shy about making upgrades. Since taking over for Walt Jocketty in 2007, he has made midsummer trades to bring Mark DeRosa, Holliday, Jake Westbrook, Rafael Furcal, Octavio Dotel, Edwin Jackson and Edward Mujica to St. Louis. Last year, he shook up a stagnant clubhouse by sending Allen Craig and Joe Kelly to Boston in a deadline deal for Lackey and a minor leaguer.
"Clearly, starting pitching can be volatile," Mozeliak said. "One day you think you have enough, and then something happens. So I'm not closing the door to anything. But I also don't feel like it's our biggest need at the moment.
"The best strategy we can have is to be opportunistic and understand the market. You don't have a lot of teams saying, 'We're selling' right now. So I think patience is very important."
In the two-plus months since Adam Wainwright limped off the field in pain in Milwaukee, the Cardinals have seen Wacha and Martinez blossom and an elite rotation take shape. Mozeliak and Matheny can wait a little longer to start making plans for October.