TEMPE, Ariz. -- While most of the country's attention was focused on the Dallas Cowboys facing the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, the Arizona Cardinals continued to solidify their chances at a prime position to trade out of the first of their two first-round picks.
The Cardinals moved up one spot in the NFL draft to second overall after they lost 27-16 to the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field and the New England Patriots (4-11) beat the Denver Broncos on Sunday night.
Sitting at 3-12 with two games left, the Cardinals have a 3.6% chance to land the No. 1 pick, according to ESPN Analytics, but a 96.9% chance of staying in the top five. With four months until the draft, one NFL personnel source said that having the second pick will be the best possible option for the Cardinals.
"Bigger trade ability from No. 2," the source said.
The source said the No. 2 pick would present options for Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort to mull over: keep it and potentially draft Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. -- or trade down.
Harrison has already shown teams that he's worthy of being drafted that high.
"It seems that way," the first personnel source said. "Pedigree helps a ton."
A second NFL personnel source called Harrison Jr. the best non-quarterback prospect in this year's class. He's likely to be available at No. 2 should the Cardinals stay there.
But it's this year's quarterback prospects that could potentially lead to the Cardinals getting a haul in return for their pick -- and also possibly being able to draft Harrison.
And a third one has entered the first-round conversation recently.
The second NFL personnel source told ESPN that LSU quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels has joined USC's Caleb Williams and North Carolina's Drake Maye as the top quarterbacks on the board. All three quarterbacks could go in the top three picks depending on who's drafting, the source said.
That changes things slightly for Arizona. With a third quarterback in the mix, more teams could be willing to make a deal. How badly a team wants any of those three will dictate how much draft capital -- and possibly players -- they're willing to part ways with to move up.
In theory, depending on where a team is moving up from should determine what they need to give up to get the Cardinals' pick.
For example, based on Jimmie Johnson's trade chart, if a team sitting at No. 4 wants to ensure they get a quarterback, they would likely have to give up a second-round pick for the second overall pick or a third-round pick for the third-overall pick in addition to swapping first-round picks, said the second personnel executive.
However, a team wanting to move up from further down in the first round could have to give up a haul.
If a team sitting around No. 12 wants to move up to the top 3, it may have to give up its second-round pick this year, and possibly a future first- and future third-round pick, in addition to swapping first-rounders this year, the second personnel executive projected.
In 2021, the San Francisco 49ers traded four picks to move up from No. 12 to No. 3 to draft Trey Lance. That same year, the Bears also gave up four picks to move up from 20th to 11th to get Justin Fields. In 2018, the New York Jets gave up four picks to move up three spots from No. 6 to No. 3 to get Sam Darnold. The Cardinals, under former general manager Steve Keim, gave up three picks to move from 15th to 10th to get Josh Rosen. But in 2017, the Bears gave up four picks to move up one spot, from No. 3 to No. 2, to get Mitchell Trubisky.
History has set a precedent that bucks the idea of relying on the trade chart to move to the top of the draft board.
However, the second personnel source said a wrench could be thrown in the Cardinals' plans if they make it known they're sticking with quarterback Kyler Murray.
"If they don't move Murray, they're showing their hand and now someone who wants [Harrison] knows they have to get ahead of them," the second personnel source said.
If the Cardinals, who travel to the Philadelphia Eagles and then host the Seattle Seahawks the last two games, remain at No. 2, the only chance another team would have to get Harrison would be to move up to No. 1. That leads to this question: Is Harrison worth moving up to No. 1 to get? The last receiver to go first overall was Keyshawn Johnson in 1996. Since then, only three positions have gone No. 1: quarterback, defensive end and offensive tackle. Five of the last six and seven of the last nine top picks have been quarterbacks.
Teams needing a quarterback will have Ossenfort's number of speed dial, especially if they know Arizona is moving forward with Murray.