The 2021 PBA season is upon us, with a triple-header kicking off the Philippine Cup on Friday. How does each team stack up? Here's the sixth and last of our team-by-team previews, featuring defending champion Barangay Ginebra Kings and the Phoniex Super LPG Fuel Masters.
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel Kings
Additions: Christian Standhardinger, Brian Enriquez, MJ Ayaay, Ken Sagulo
Subtractions: Jerrick Balanza (note: Greg Slaughter returned to Ginebra after the 2020 bubble but was subsequently traded to NorthPort)
Holdovers: Stanley Pringle, LA Tenorio, Japeth Aguilar, Scottie Thompson, Joe Devance, Prince Caperal, Jared Dillinger, Kent Salado, Arvin Tolentino, Raymond Aguilar, Jeff Chan, Aljon Mariano (injured), Arth dela Cruz (injured), Mark Caguioa (reserve)
2020 record: 16-6; 8-3 in elimination round, 8-3 in playoffs (beat TNT in Finals for the title)
Key stat from 2020: 104 offensive rating
Barangay Ginebra "only" scoring 89.5 points per game (third-least) in last year's Philippine Cup greatly undersells the savvy in which the team picked apart opposing defenses inside the Clark "bubble."
Per advanced metrics, coach Tim Cone's wards produced 104 points per 100 possessions, a number that placed them within the top five offenses last year. How did they manage that figure despite posting low scoring totals throughout the conference?
The answer lies in the pace and equanimity they played with. Ginebra hardly ran in transition and averaged roughly 86.1 possessions per game (third-lowest), preferring to slow the game down and organize in the halfcourt.
This resulted in the team generating better looks and wasting few possessions. The Gin Kings shot 44.3 percent from the field (third), hit 34.4 percent of their threes (fourth) - albeit on low volume, and scored 1.07 points per shot (third). Advanced numbers also paint Ginebra as a team that likes to move the rock, as 68 percent of its field goals were assisted (second-best).
Talk about quality over quantity.
Player to watch: Christian Standhardinger
Standhardinger is the prime choice here not for his ability to elevate the already-elite Gin Kings, but because there's a chance that Cone could unlock a new level of dominance from the Fil-German.
With Ginebra, the 32-year-old won't have to shoulder the offensive burden the way he did in NorthPort. With more stars around him demanding defensive attention, Standhardinger could find himself scoring with a lot more ease compared to 2020 when he averaged 19.9 points (sixth-best), but shot just 49.4 percent from the field. Even more, his effective field goal percentage - a measure of efficiency in all field goal attempts, minus free throws - of 49.7 percent was the third-lowest among last season's top 10 scorers.
Defensively, also expect to see a more engaged Standhardinger alongside an ideal frontcourt partner in Japeth Aguilar. The 6-foot-8 modern big doesn't block a lot of shots, and his intensity and effort waxed and waned with the Batang Pier last year, but he's often had unusually high steal numbers for a center. Simply put, Standhardinger moving around with a perennial shot-blocker in Aguilar protecting the backline feels like a very snug fit.
Standhardinger does many other things pretty well, too as he's an elite rebounder (12.0 boards per game to lead the league last year) and a willing passer who has the chops to keep the ball moving (he assisted on 23.3 percent of his teammates' shots, first among all centers).
2021 outlook: Numerous factors often make it hard to quantify a certain team's title odds after swinging a big trade - and even more so after the competition made offseason splashes of their own - but in Ginebra's case, it's probably hard to argue against the notion that they remain the team-to-beat until someone else proves otherwise.
The crowd darlings, already rich in talent and experience, got even richer with the addition of Standhardinger, a one-time Best Player of the Conference who forms the league's most daunting frontline with Aguilar for the foreseeable future.
Steady as ever are guards Stanley Pringle, LA Tenorio, and Scottie Thompson. Tenorio and Thompson didn't stick with the ball for too long and remain heady; among 14 players who assisted on at least 25 percent of their teammates' shots last year, the duo posted the lowest usage rates. And as a no. 1 option, Pringle was efficient as they come (44.3/38.3/89./1 shooting splits) and now, he's bound to get even easier looks.
The addition of rookies Brian Enriquez and Ken Sagulo only serve to add more depth to a Gin King bench that is much better than its raw output suggests (28.1 points by the second unit was the league's second-lowest last year). Each bench player plays a specific role and does his part to contribute to winning.
A lot was said earlier about their offense, but it's defense that wins championships, and certainly, Ginebra excels in that regard. The team's defensive rating of 100 (third-best) was buoyed by the fact that they allowed the second-least points (86.1), the second-worst shooting by opponents from the field (40.2 percent) and from three (29.1 percent), and guarded well without fouling, as their 17.3 fouls per game was the lowest by a mile.
The defending champions are loaded, disciplined, and battle-tested. If teams want to knock them down, they'd have to throw their best punch - and then some - come game time.
Phoenix Super LPG Fuel Masters
Additions: Vic Manuel, Chris Banchero, Larry Muyang, Aljun Melecio, Nick Demusis, Bryan Faundo, Michael Calisaan
Subtractions: Calvin Abueva, Alex Mallari, Dave Marcelo, Brian Heruela, Mike Gamboa, Jay-R Reyes, JC Intal
Holdovers: Matthew Wright, Jason Perkins, Justin Chua, RJ Jazul, RR Garcia, Jorey Napoles, Jansen Rios, Jake Pascual
2020 record: 11-6; 8-3 in the elimination round, 3-3 in playoffs (lost to TNT in semifinals)
Key stat from 2020: 68.7 assist percentage
Coach Topex Robinson's core tenet is "serving others" - from his time building up Lyceum into an NCAA powerhouse to his first conference as Phoenix's head coach. And just by looking at how his Fuel Masters performed, it looked like his boys got the message.
No team handed out more assists per game than Phoenix, which dished out 23.4 dimes per game inside the Clark "bubble." All in all, a league-best 68.7 percent of the team's field goals were assisted, indicating a system-wide willingness to keep the ball moving and finding the most quality shot.
That approach certainly paid off. Only one team scored more and posted a better offensive rating than the Fuel Masters, who put up 98.3 points and a 106.8 offensive rating. A lot of that had to do with their tremendous shooting, where they "only" ranked fifth in field goal percentage, but hit the most threes on a per game basis (13.4) and converted on a top-three rate (35 percent).
Phoenix brandished a fast, modernized offense under Robinson. The team logged the fourth-most possessions per game (92.1) and relied a lot on their work from downtown, where 46.8 percent of their attempts came - a top-two mark, just behind trigger-happy TNT. There were a lot of turnovers, of course - the Fuel Masters' 17.4 miscues per game were a league-high - but they put numbers on the board, whenever needed.
Player to watch: Matthew Wright
Vic Manuel and Chris Banchero would have both been deserving selections, and they would definitely have their moments once the games roll around. But as far as Phoenix is concerned, everything starts and ends with Matthew Wright, the sweet-shooting guard who made the leap from pretty good scorer to total offensive force in 2020.
Inside the "bubble," the Fil-Canadian averaged 21.1 points on 44.6 percent shooting, including a strong 35.1 percent from beyond the arc, while also handing out 5.5 assists in 37.2 minutes. All those numbers were career-highs and came at the right time for Phoenix, which nearly made the Finals for the very first time in franchise history.
Wright played with a certain type of ease and swagger inherent only in some of PBA's best players. He seamlessly alternated between being a superb scorer and a generous playmaker, becoming one of only three players to land within the top 10 of both points and assists leaderboards. Among those three, Wright had the best effective field goal percentage at 55.1 percent, as well as the best assist percentage, setting up roughly 28.2 percent of his teammates' makes.
Whether or not he could replicate - or improve on - the sterling conference he had remains to be seen. His ability isn't in question here; rather, it's a matter of the 30-year-old having to do that again with fellow ball-dominant players on the roster. Banchero could play off the ball, though you'd like to see him orchestrate the offense for the most part, while Manuel used 29.6 percent of Alaska's possessions last year, the second-highest usage rate.
Wright, of course, is more than willing to cede possessions to his teammates, so he might become even more efficient with the likes of Manuel and Banchero dominating the offense for parts of the game. Either way, both his adjustments and his continued development as an offensive player is definitely something worth monitoring.
2021 outlook: There wouldn't be an overwhelming amount of external expectations for these Fuel Masters entering the new season. But after gaining everyone's respect last year, they wouldn't be surprising anyone, either - unless, of course, they take yet another huge leap similar to the one they had in 2020.
That jump isn't that far off if Phoenix could carry over last year's prolific offense into the new season. There aren't many reasons to think the team wouldn't do just that, especially if Wright and Jason Perkins could sustain their fine play on that end of the floor.
Perkins, particularly, would continue having a huge role in Phoenix's overall chances. Last year, a more diverse arsenal made him one of the best offensive players, as he averaged 17.8 points on 50.9 percent shooting and 8.6 rebounds. What's impressive about his scoring is that he threw up a career-high 4.5 threes per game and made them at a very impressive 39.5 percent clip. Overall, his true shooting percentage - accounting all field goals, three pointers, and free throws - stood at 61 percent, seventh among big men.
But in order to truly bridge the gap between being an elite playoff team and becoming a championship contender, the Fuel Masters have to do much, much better on defense. Phoenix gave up the second-most points per game at 98.3, and the team's 105.19 defensive rating ranked eighth league-wide. Calvin Abueva's departure would hardly do the team any favors on that end of the floor. For all the offensive poise that rookies Larry Muyang, Aljun Melecio, and Nick Demusis have displayed in the past, defense could very well be a challenge for them, as it always is for all freshmen stepping foot on the PBA floor for the first time.
All that doesn't seem to be a total deal-breaker, though. These Fuel Masters are well-coached, offensively progressive, stacked from top to bottom, and are fully capable of taking on anybody on any given day. Another deep playoff run - or even a Finals appearance this time around - wouldn't at all be that shocking.
EDITOR'S NOTE: Figures courtesy of Stats by Ryan on DribbleMedia.com