A year ago today, the trade market was saturated with Ryan Braun rumors. The Brewers outfielder was having a big bounce-back season, hitting well over .300 and playing so well that the Dodgers, Giants and other teams dug into the question of his potential acquisition cost.
But Braun’s trajectory since then demonstrates that circumstances can change very quickly in the trade market -- a good reminder for teams as they sort through possible deals leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.
Braun is not the only player who has lost significant trade value in the past year.
Troy Tulowitzki, Toronto Blue Jays
At the time that Toronto swapped for him in what was an important finishing touch in its 2015 playoff run, Tulowitzki was regarded as a potential impact player and an accomplished defender who generated power and production that are unusual in a middle infielder. But the 32-year-old Tulowitzki now ranks 24th among all MLB shortstops in fWAR and is hitting .250 with seven homers in 236 plate appearances. He will make $58 million from 2018-20 under the terms of his contract, and the Blue Jays would presumably have to eat a ton of money to even have a chance of moving the former All-Star.
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee is leading the NL Central, so the Brewers are looking to add rather than sell. But it probably would be difficult for them to give away Braun if they wanted to because he has again been beset by injuries, specifically a calf problem. Braun is 33, he has played in just 45 games this season, he is hitting .259, and he is owed $60 million over the next three seasons.
Matt Moore, San Francisco Giants
San Francisco’s expensive deal for the left-hander helped to push the Giants into the postseason in 2016, and there was sound logic behind that trade when it went down. With big money owed to Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, it made sense for the Giants to add an experienced left-hander with what seemed to be a very team-friendly contract; Moore’s deal has team options for $9 million in 2018 and $10 million in 2019. But Moore’s performance has been nothing short of awful this season: He has a 5.81 ERA, having allowed more earned runs than any other NL pitcher, and he has allowed 131 hits in 105 1/3 innings. His rate of hard-hit balls has jumped to 36.2 percent, a career worst. Said one evaluator: "His stuff is down a tick, but I think it might be more of a confidence thing with him this year. He's throwing his cutter again, and that was a big pitch for him last year, along with his changeup." With the Giants’ season lost, it would usually make sense for them to at least weigh the value of a veteran such as Moore in the market, but increasingly, San Francisco might have to focus on whether it makes sense to exercise that 2018 option in Moore’s deal.
Before the Dodgers traded for Logan Forsythe, they had conversations with Detroit about Kinsler, who hit .288 in 2016 with 117 runs and 61 extra-base hits, but L.A. found the price too high for its liking. Kinsler turned 35 last month, and his numbers have dropped, with his OPS dipping more than 100 points. Kinsler has an option for $12 million for 2018, with a $5 million buyout. Not only is the market mostly free of demand for a second baseman, but Detroit probably wouldn’t get inspiring offers anyway.
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
The 31-year-old slugger seemed like a human trade rumor for about three or four consecutive years, with the industry assuming that the Rockies would move him before he reached free agency in the fall of 2017. Colorado is pushing for a playoff spot, but Gonzalez’s struggles this year are so significant that even if the Rockies wanted to flip him for value, they wouldn’t be able to. He’s hitting .218 with six homers in 311 plate appearances, and rival evaluators say the Rockies are exploring ways to goose their offense -- at least partly because of Gonzalez’s struggles at the plate. He’s making $20 million this year.