The NLDS between the Cubs and Giants will be highlighted by good pitchers and good environments for pitching success, but there are also some sneaky-good hitting values to be found. If you have any questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter: @DerekCarty.
Things to Watch For and Consider
AT&T Park is the best pitchers’ park in the playoffs.
There will be double-digit winds in Wrigley throughout this series, although as of now they won’t be blowing in any direction that has a significant effect on the game. Keep an eye on the weather maps to see if they change, though, as wind is a hugely important factor in Wrigley.
Not only is the Cubs' starting pitching terrific, but the bullpen is the best in the playoffs. Even to be contrarian, this might not be the team to take some shots.
The Cubs could carry three catchers on their NLDS roster, so pay attention to who is behind the plate on any given day. Miguel Montero and David Ross are great pitch framers (Montero is actually elite) and would make Chicago pitchers more appealing, whereas Willson Contreras is below average.
Chicago Cubs
Pitching
Jon Lester isn’t the best pitcher on the Cubs, but he might be the most intriguing in this series. He’s the lone southpaw, and lefties tend to do well against the Giants given that all of their best hitters, save for Buster Posey (who still seems to be playing hurt) and Hunter Pence, are left-handed. Game 1 is in Wrigley Field on a crowded day, so he’s probably not a cash game option, but he’ll be a good GPP one.
Kyle Hendricks is one of the most underrated pitchers in all of baseball and one of the top 15, in my opinion -- he doesn’t get enough credit for his ability to induce soft contact. But this matchup isn’t great for him. The Giants will roll out lots of lefties, don’t strikeout much against righties, and he’ll have to face them in Wrigley.
Jake Arrieta is in the same boat as Hendricks, but at least he’ll get to face the Giants in Game 3 at AT&T Park. It’s a big upgrade, and he’ll receive the added strategic benefit of being a National League pitcher pitching on a four-game day. The NL is one day behind the AL, so the other options will be AL No. 4 starters and NL No. 3 starters -- none of which comes close to matching Arrieta for talent. It’s not the ideal matchup, but Arrieta will be viable in a cash game.
Even after six months of success, I’m still a bit skeptical of John Lackey because 37-year-old pitchers just don’t post career years and sustain it. They just don’t. AT&T Park will help, but righties against the Giants aren’t generally a good play, and Lackey is no Arrieta or Hendricks in terms of talent.
Hitting
Outside of the Red Sox and possibly the Blue Jays, the Cubs are the best offense in the playoffs. That said, between AT&T and the temperatures dropping in Wrigley with no usable wind, the hitting conditions aren’t going to be ideal. Throw in good Giants pitching and I’m really not seeing a lot of Cubs to love. The best way to use them would be as a GPP stack.
If you're looking for one-offs, Anthony Rizzo against Johnny Cueto or Jeff Samardzija could be sufficient enough given that Games 1 and 2 are in Wrigley, which is certainly better than AT&T. Kris Bryant could also be sneaky against Madison Bumgarner -- and potentially downright good on a small slate with the platoon advantage against Matt Moore, even in AT&T.
San Francisco Giants
Pitching
Johnny Cueto is most valuable against teams that strike out a lot and don’t walk much. Sure, this is a recipe for success for any pitcher, but it works particularly well for Cueto. He doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate, but his ability to be efficient and go deep into games helps him accrue enough points on a game-by-game basis if he’s facing a team that whiffs. The Cubs offer this kind of strikeout upside, although they are a patient team that takes pitches and draws walks, which could limit Cueto’s ability to go deep enough to be worth the cost. Hitter-friendly Wrigley will also cut into his value, so I don’t view him as much more than a GPP option in Game 1.
Jeff Samardzija was great over the final couple of months of the season after adding a curveball to his repertoire, and I like him in this spot if the price is right. The Cubs can be dangerous, but they offer good strikeout upside.
After pitching masterfully in the wild-card game, Madison Bumgarner would be able to pitch Game 3 on normal rest. That’s when the series shifts to AT&T Park, which is where we’ll obviously have the most interest in pitchers. It helps that Bumgarner is their best, and he’ll be an elite cash game option here.
Matt Moore has always been a solid-enough pitcher, but he pitched quite well after settling in as a Giant. A league shift to the NL, an elite park and an elite pitch-framing catcher in Posey added the context to make him really appealing. All of those factors should be in play should Moore get the call in Game 4. He’d be a great SP2 option.
Hitting
Eduardo Nunez wasn’t on the roster for the wild-card game as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury -- not an ideal injury for a guy who is sneaky because of his wheels. But Game 1 is a great spot to use Nunez as a sneaky option if he’s in the lineup and leading off, since he’ll hold the platoon advantage and have a terrific stolen base matchup against Lester and Ross, both of whom are horrible at preventing steals. However, that's only if he's healthy.
I also like Denard Span as a stolen base play in this series. It’ll be tough to play him lefty on lefty against Lester, even on an abbreviated slate, but Arrieta and Lackey also struggle mightily with controlling the running game. The Lackey game seems like the premier spot.
Unless you’re making a play for speed, I can’t in good conscience recommend any other Giants. With half of the series in AT&T and the entire series against excellent starting pitching and an excellent bullpen, this just isn’t the team to target.