Each morning we provide the fantasy basketball tipoff, in which we examine several key angles to get you ready for this evening’s season-long and daily fantasy action. We have 12 games on tap Wednesday, so let’s tip it off.
Prime-time matchup
Two of the best teams in the Western Conference will meet this evening as the Warriors host the Clippers (10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/WatchESPN). Here's what you need to know from a fantasy perspective for this game:
Chris Paul loves playing against Golden State. Paul has a higher points per game average against GSW (23.3) than against any other team (he averages 21.0 against the Mavericks, who rank second), according to ESPN Stats & Info.
That's been especially true this season, as Paul has averaged 27.7 points and 7.7 assists per game against The Warriors.
And while Stephen Curry is known as one of the greatest offensive players in NBA history, his defensive abilities don't limit production for opposing point guards. Over the last 10 games, the Warriors have allowed the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to point guards, per RotoWire.
Paul has seen his role increase with Blake Griffin out, especially when it comes to dishing out assists. Since Griffin was sidelined in December, Paul has 46.6 percent of his team's assists, the only player on the team with triple-digit dimes since late December. He has 10 or more assists in 14 of his last 18 games.
As for Curry, his 18 missed 3-pointers over his last two games are the second-most for a two-game span in his career, per ESPN Stats & Info. The two-game span with the most misses from deep? Earlier this month against the Lakers and Thunder. He followed up those two games with a lights-out performance against Orlando, shooting 7-of-13 from beyond the arc. Expect Curry to bounce back, even against the strong defense of Paul.
Denver's big opportunity
Denver will take on the 76ers this evening, who are not only one of the worst teams in the NBA, but one of the worst at defending power forwards and centers for fantasy purposes. Daily fantasy players already know this, but it's worth paying special attention to the situation tonight given the state of the post play for the Nuggets.
Kenneth Faried has been dealing with a back injury, and has missed three straight games. There has yet to be a definitive announcement on his status for Wednesday, so we have to move forward with plans in place for his potential absence from the game.
If he doesn't play, Darrell Arthur becomes a virtual must-play in the daily game. Arthur has played 27-plus minutes in six of his last seven, and has translated that into four games of 23 or more DraftKings points. This perfect matchup means we can expect at least 23 points, which would pay off his salary, but we can also expect a bit of ceiling from the Kansas product. He scored 36 DraftKings points against Charlotte just a few nights ago, and that would be a level of production you can't afford to miss in DFS NBA tonight.
Running with the Wolves
Any team playing the Sacramento Kings will see a boost in pace, as the Kings are one of the fastest squads in the league at getting up and down the floor. This is something we like to target in daily fantasy, as a boost in overall pace for a slower team means more opportunities to produce stats that give us fantasy points. That's especially true for a player like Zach LaVine, who is 15th in the NBA in points off of turnovers, a statistic which the Kings rank as the fourth-most favorable for opponents in the league, per the NBA's official stats.
However, in this matchup, the increased pace for Minnesota will also likely lead to more turnovers committed and more opportunities for the Kings, as well. Minnesota ranks sixth in the league in points allowed off of turnovers, per the NBA, and Darren Collison ranks a few spots ahead of LaVine in the player rankings in that stat. Collison has 30 or more DraftKings points in four of his last five games despite somewhat inconsistent minutes. Both players are viable options for your lineups tonight, as this could be a very productive matchup for each player.
March efficiency
Who are the most efficient players so far this month in terms of scoring fantasy points on FanDuel? Some of the names on the list may surprise you.
Here are the players expected to suit up tonight who rank among the top 10 in FanDuel points per minute in March.
DeMarcus Cousins (Questionable), 1.4 FD PPM
Pau Gasol, 1.4
Chris Paul, 1.3
Stephen Curry, 1.3
Hassan Whiteside, 1.3
James Harden, 1.3
Unfortunately, several of these players have especially tough matchups tonight. We've already mentioned Curry's matchup with the Clippers, which is not favorable from a fantasy standpoint, while Whiteside faces the Spurs (second-fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing centers), and Harden faces the Jazz (fourth-fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing shooting guards). And while it's tough to define which position Antetokounmpo plays from a matchup perspective, the Cavs are a tougher-than-average matchup at virtually every position.
Injury update
Here are the key injury situations to watch on Wednesday:
Nikola Vucevic is out for Orlando. Scott Skiles' rotations are a nightmare to predict, but we could see another 25-plus minutes from Jason Smith to compensate for the injury. Andrew Nicholson has produced well over the last three games in relatively limited minutes, and is a name to consider as well.
The Raptors have a few questionable players for tonight's matchup. Jonas Valanciunas is maybe the biggest name among them, and his absence would open the door for another big game from Bismack Biyombo. Boston provides a favorable matchup for centers, so keep an eye on who gets the start here.
As mentioned above, Cousins is questionable for tonight's game. You'll want players from both teams in this matchup in your lineups tonight, but be careful with Cousins unless he is confirmed as good to go.
Andrew Bogut remains a question mark for the Warriors, and while we don't have any definitive answers about his status at the time of writing this article, it is a lineup situation worth keeping up with. DeAndre Jordan would benefit greatly from Bogut's continued absence, as the Warriors have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points in the NBA over the last five games.