Each morning we provide the fantasy basketball tipoff, in which we examine several key angles to get you ready for this evening’s season-long and daily fantasy action. We have nine games on tap Wednesday, so let’s tip it off.
Strength versus strength
One of Wednesday's most interesting matchups features the high-scoring Warriors and the methodical Jazz. This contest involves the league's best offense in terms of efficiency (with the second-highest pace) taking on the league's slowest offense (with a top-10 defense ranked by efficiency).
These teams have already met three times this season, and Utah's ability to slow the game and limit points was on full display. Two of the Warriors' 15 lowest-scoring games this season have come against the Jazz, and Stephen Curry is shooting worse than 40 percent from the floor this season in this particular matchup.
Utah is a very tough matchup for point guards from a fantasy perspective, so fading Curry in daily fantasy makes sense. On the other hand, he could be due for a transcendent game that ignores matchups and metrics, and there aren't many chances to select Curry when he's unpopular. Still, Curry and his Golden State teammates shouldn't be focal points of your lineups tonight, while the Jazz actually get a bit of a collective boost as they play up in pace.
On the break
The Warriors lead the league in a lot of offensive categories, but it should come as no surprise that they're first in the NBA in fast break points, per the league's official stats. But again, tonight's matchup with the Jazz doesn't really play into that strength in a noteworthy way.
However, there are a couple of teams in good spots to get out and run for easy baskets Wednesday.
The Wizards trail only the Warriors in fast-break points per contest, and face the Kings tonight, who allow the sixth-most. John Wall stands to benefit the most, as he scores the sixth-most points on the fast break in the league.
The Bucks rank 10th in fast-break points, but their opponents, the Suns, allow the most. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton stand to benefit.
Best center matchups
Among teams in action tonight, here are the six that have allowed the most fantasy points to centers in the past 10 games:
Golden State (at Utah): Not even Andrew Bogut's return has brought back solid post defense for the Warriors.
Sacramento (vs. Washington): The Kings struggle to defend most positions, but Marcin Gortat will benefit from this poor defense against centers.
Phoenix (at Milwaukee): Greg Monroe has 40-fantasy-point upside, but his minutes aren't where we want them to be.
Memphis (vs. Denver): Nikola Jokic has a high ceiling against the hurting Grizzlies.
Los Angeles Lakers (vs. Heat) and Miami (at L.A.): These are the next two teams in terms of points allowed to centers, which mostly benefits Hassan Whiteside. He's a strong option for daily fantasy lineups tonight.
Rebounding advantages
Four matchups tonight feature notable differences in rebounding rate:
The Raptors, who rank seventh in this metric, will take on the Hawks, who rank 29th. Give a slight boost to Toronto players who are active on the glass this evening.
The same goes for the Heat, sixth in rebound rate, against the Lakers, who rank 27th. Whiteside could be in for a big night in multiple stat categories.
The Mavericks rank 26th in rebound rate, and will face the Knicks tonight, who rank 12th. Kristaps Porzingis could grab a couple of extra boards against Dallas.
The Kings hold a solid rebounding rate advantage over the Wizards, so while Washington will be targeted for its offense, you can bank on good rebounding numbers for Sacramento big men.
From downtown
Finally, let's look at a couple of teams with good matchups for 3-point shooting Wednesday.
The Bucks take on the Suns, who have the worst 3-point differential in the NBA, per the league's official stats. Khris Middleton and Jerryd Bayless are the two players to watch here, although neither have a ton of recent consistency to bank on.
The Hawks will face the Raptors, who have the second-worst 3-point differential in the league. Kyle Korver and Kent Bazemore are two guys to bump up your rankings for tonight's action.
Sacramento actually gets another positive matchup in this category, as Washington is near the bottom in 3-point differential as well. Seth Curry has logged at least 23 minutes in his past three games, and if Marco Belinelli remains out, Curry could see a nice bit of time on the court in a favorable shooting matchup. He's not the scorer his brother is, but he's certainly capable of pouring in 20 points in limited minutes. Omri Casspi and Darren Collison both could benefit from Washington's lacking 3-point defense as well.