College basketball has been so chaotic, it made us wonder: Are No. 1 seeds going to be as vulnerable in the NCAA tournament as No. 1 teams were in the regular season?

Because of conference tournament upsets, the worst auto-bid teams are very weak this year. So we are about 97 percent certain the time has not yet arrived for a 16-seed to take down a 1. (You can find our analysis of first-round matchup here). But when we trained our statistical model to peer deeper into brackets, we found numerous hazards for top seeds -- including a few Giant vs. Killer matchups, where an underdog’s style of play could give a Goliath extra headaches.

And we can sum up the results of all the math involved with one word: Duck!