Read their tea leaves correctly, or at least their tempo-free statistics, and you can divine not only which top-notch teams deserve NCAA tournament berths but also which squads are likely to advance or trip in March. That’s the promise of our Giant Killers project. For 10 years, we have refined a statistical model to identify traits common to deep underdogs that pull off big tournament upsets and to heavy favorites that topple. And we can already glean which Giants are shaping up as vulnerable.

For details about how our annual metrics-based forecast works, you can check this out. But here are the definitions you need to get started: A Giant is a team that plays an NCAA tournament opponent seeded at least five spots lower in any round; a Giant Killer is a team that beats a Giant; and a team’s Giant Rating is our estimate of its percentage chance of defeating an average Killer, based on data from 2007 to 2014. Over the years, we have found that successful Killers tend to play high-risk, high-reward styles, increasing the variability of their scoring. Giants need to snuff out opponents’ chance-taking to ward them off.

So who could make it to the Big Dance only to be upstaged by Cinderella? Without further ado, five Giants whose slips are showing.