As soon as we saw the seedings for this year’s NCAA tournament, we here at Giant Killer Central were considerably more excited about Giant vs. Killer matchups that might emerge in the round of 32 than upset possibilities in the first two days of play. And here’s a Sunday underdog you can get behind: Our statistical model says Wichita State has a 37.6 percent chance to knock off Kansas -- and there’s good reason to think those odds are understated.

For starters, this is not your typical 2 vs. 7 matchup. Kansas, ranking 14th in our basic power ratings, is slightly over-seeded. And Wichita State, which year after year is underappreciated by the NCAA selection committee, is terribly under-seeded, ranking 19th. We estimate there’s a difference of only 3.3 points per 100 possessions in these teams’ fundamental strengths, less than half the average gap between 2- and 7-seeds since 2007.