Think back to that morning in June when the Premier League fixtures were announced and you had that first scan down the list. There are, obviously, some games you look out for first.
• Jolly: Barry thriving at Everton
Who would Manchester City be facing on the opening and closing days of the season? Boxing Day and New Year’s Day are key dates, too. When would the two Manchester derbies be? Were there any spells of the campaign that looked particularly tough?
Now, remember that feeling you had when you saw that the Blues faced Everton away in the penultimate game of the season (it’s since become the third-last match after the home tie with Aston Villa was moved to the final midweek). Horrible, wasn’t it? Knowing that any title bid could really have done with being wrapped up well in advance of that fixture, since City rarely do well at Goodison Park. It’s a feeling that most fans will have been putting off all year.
Then, boom! The penultimate weekend of the 2013-14 campaign arrives and here it is, presenting a simple formula for Manuel Pellegrini’s men -- anything less than a win will most likely spell trouble, given Liverpool’s last two opponents are Crystal Palace and Newcastle, while Chelsea’s are Norwich and Cardiff. Should City come away from Merseyside for the second time this season without maximum points, there’s a pretty good chance the title will be heading to Merseyside in just under a fortnight.
No pressure, then.
Without being too unkind to the visitors to Goodison Park this Saturday evening, City’s recent record there is, frankly, woeful. The Blues have won once in their last 15 visits. They’ve managed just seven points from a possible 45 in that time -- and in the Premier League, City have won twice at Everton, with the first coming back in October 1992. In fact, City have won only 16 games at Goodison in their history ... from 87 matches.
City have lost on each of their last four visits, and the last time victory away to the Toffees came when Mark Hughes was in charge of the club -- the goal scorers that day were Robinho and Stephen Ireland. That was the irony of the Welshman’s full season at the helm of the Blues: He clearly wasn’t of the managerial ability to move City on to the level they needed to be, but he was able to win at the two stadiums that have been bogey grounds since. The 3-0 win at Sunderland and the 2-1 win at Everton might have been the ONLY two away games he won, but the Blues have not emerged victorious at either since.
There are, however, a couple of bonuses for the Blues this time they travel to Goodison. In previous seasons, David Moyes’ kill-the-game-before-kick-off-then-boot-anything-that-moves style of play was always what City teams had struggled with (not that I’m decrying that style of play, because clearly it worked for them, even if it was a little … industrious). This campaign, however, Everton have been playing a much more open game under a manager who likes his teams to play with a touch of flair -- and that should give the visitors more opportunities to get at the hosts’ goal.
Equally, one key to Everton’s season has been Gareth Barry’s performance in midfield. Since he’s on loan from the Etihad, he’s ineligible for the match. In itself that might not have been too much of an issue for Roberto Martinez, but the third plus point for Pellegrini is the number of players the Toffees have sidelined: Bryan Oviedo and Arouna Kone are long-term injuries, while Phil Jagielka, Steven Pienaar, Sylvain Distin, Darron Gibson and Kevin Mirallas are all major doubts.
Another positive is that David Silva looks likely to be available, too, after it was revealed this week that his ankle injury isn’t as serious as first feared when he was stretchered off against West Brom.
The world, meanwhile, has gone topsy-turvy. The bigger picture is that a City slip-up could allow Liverpool to win their first Premier League crown, and that’s left a lot of Manchester United fans supporting the Blues. Equally, Everton’s fans have had the same quandary -- not wanting their arch rivals to win the title, but equally needing to beat City to maintain any (admittedly now slim) hope of qualifying for the Champions League. And Liverpool fans are now rooting for an Everton win.
It was all easier when everyone was just supporting their own team.
Come Saturday evening, the situation surrounding the title will be a hell of a lot clearer. If the Blues are able to take their 17th win at Goodison since the teams first met in 1899, then they will surely be in pole position to win their fourth top-flight championship, with two home games to end the season against two teams who will finish in the bottom half of the league.
Last weekend, City were handed a second chance at this season’s Premier League; this weekend is when we’ll see if they’re going to grasp the opportunity with both hands.