Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks have never been closer to a trade.
While that doesn't necessarily mean the two-time MVP will have a new home by Thursday's deadline, it does mean teams across the league are crunching contract numbers and staring at draft pick collections to find enough value to send to Milwaukee.
But as league sources told ESPN's Shams Charania last week, four franchises have emerged as serious suitors for Antetokounmpo: the Golden State Warriors, New York Knicks, Miami Heat and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Which one can offer the best deal? Which teams could be brought in to facilitate? Which superstars could land with the Bucks? What other contenders might join the Giannis talks?
NBA insiders Zach Kram and Kevin Pelton map out trade proposals from the Warriors, Knicks, Heat and Wolves -- plus two wild-card scenarios -- that check the boxes for Milwaukee's ideal return. Then, NBA front office insider Bobby Marks, playing the role of Bucks general manager Jon Horst, examines each offer and picks a winner.
Jump to a Giannis trade:
Warriors | Knicks | Heat | Timberwolves
Two wild-cards | Verdict: Marks' best deal
What every NBA franchise can offer Bucks
Warriors trade it all to create Giannis-Steph duo
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Myles Turner
Milwaukee Bucks get:
Jimmy Butler III
Jonathan Kuminga
Brandin Podziemski
2026 first-round pick
2028 first-round pick
2030 first-round pick (if 1-20)
2031 first-round swap
2032 first-round pick
Golden State, which can trade up to four of its own first-round picks and has a reasonable matching salary in the injured Butler, has the cleanest path to a two-team trade that gives Milwaukee young talent, picks and cap flexibility. Butler will have an expiring contract next season and could return value at the 2027 deadline if he's back from an ACL tear that has him out for the remainder of this season.
In this construction, the Warriors also give up two swaps and Podziemski to fulfill Kuminga's trade request and get Turner. That would create a crowded Golden State frontcourt with incumbents Draymond Green and Al Horford, though the Warriors would probably want to manage their minutes and Antetokounmpo's return from another calf injury. -- Pelton
Marks' analysis: No Giannis trades will be easy, but this is the simplest considering no third team is involved. The Warriors are essentially telling Milwaukee to pick the terms of the deal without including Stephen Curry. The bonus for the Bucks is potentially fetching a fifth first-round pick if they can find a home for Butler at next year's trade deadline.
Stephen A. Smith details why he would like to see Giannis Antetokounmpo join the Golden State Warriors ahead of the NBA trade deadline.
Giannis to Knicks, KAT to Blazers in 3-team blockbuster
New York Knicks get:
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Jrue Holiday
Karl-Anthony Towns
Mikal Bridges
Miles McBride
Milwaukee Bucks get:
Jerami Grant
Matisse Thybulle
Guerschon Yabusele
2026 first-round pick (from Wizards via Knicks, top-eight protected)
2029 first-round pick (best of Bucks, Trail Blazers and Celtics)
Return of 2030 swap rights (via Trail Blazers)
2030 pick swap via Knicks
2032 pick swap via Knicks
Any trade sending Antetokounmpo to the Knicks is inherently complicated. The Bucks are reportedly seeking young players and picks in return for their superstar, but the Knicks don't have much of either. New York's top eight scorers are all 25 or older, and the franchise's only tradable first-round pick is a top-eight-protected selection from the Wizards that is extremely unlikely to convey. (It would turn into second-round picks in 2026 and 2027.)
This framework would check multiple boxes. In addition to sending Antetokounmpo to New York, it would give the Knicks a perfect backcourt complement to Jalen Brunson and reunite Antetokounmpo with Holiday a half-decade after they won a title together in Milwaukee. It would return to the Bucks two of the far-off future picks they sent to Portland (along with Holiday) in the ill-fated Damian Lillard trade, giving them flexibility in the post-Antetokounmpo era. And it would give a major boost to the Trail Blazers' roster as it seeks its first playoff berth since 2020-21. McBride might immediately become the best guard in Portland, and lineups with Bridges, Deni Avdija, Towns and Donovan Clingan could excel on both ends.
Whether that upgrade -- and getting off Grant's contract -- is worth so much extra draft capital could be a sticking point for the Blazers. Milwaukee would also have to decide it would rather receive fewer picks but regain control over its own draft future instead of choosing a return with more of another team's picks. And New York would end up condensing its two major acquisitions from last season (Towns and Bridges) into one bigger star. But this sort of trade structure is necessary to get Antetokounmpo to Madison Square Garden and has at least some appeal to all involved parties. -- Kram
Marks' analysis: This trade is contingent on how much Milwaukee values regaining control of its 2029 and 2030 first-round picks. If those picks are considered critical to the Bucks' rebuild, there is a path to a deal. The potential roadblock is the $70 million owed to Grant over the next two seasons and the fact that Milwaukee is not getting back a young player to build around. The trade feels more like Milwaukee cleaning up a mistake it made from the Lillard trade in 2023.
Monica McNutt and Vincent Goodwill debate whether trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo would make the Knicks strong enough to win a championship.
Heat land their newest superstar
Miami Heat get:
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Milwaukee Bucks get:
Tyler Herro
Terry Rozier
Kel'el Ware
2029 first-round pick
2030 swap rights
2031 first-round pick
The Heat don't have the most picks or the best young talent to offer Milwaukee, but they have a bit of both, with two tradable first-round picks, a promising 21-year-old center in Ware and a one-time All-Star (and Wisconsin native) in Herro. The Heat could also trade Jaime Jaquez Jr., a Sixth Man of the Year contender this season, but they would need to balance their offer with retaining enough talent to contend with Antetokounmpo.
The best chance Miami has of landing the two-time MVP might be if Antetokounmpo wants to head to South Beach and the Bucks decide to honor that preference. That sort of targeting doesn't always work -- see: Lillard's arrival in Milwaukee instead of Miami -- but because the Heat can't make the best overall offer, they need some intangible bonus to finalize a deal.
It is important to note that this construction assumes the NBA permits the use of Rozier's expiring contract in a trade, even as he faces federal charges related to illegal sports betting. In December, ESPN reported that although "there isn't guidance from the NBA as to whether the Heat could move Rozier, the fact that he is still on the roster is a sign the Heat believe it is a possibility." -- Kram
Marks' analysis: Considering what other teams could have to offer, this trade gets done only if Antetokounmpo's camp signals the Heat as his only preferred destination. The two unprotected first-round picks and Ware are valuable, but unless the Bucks can turn Herro into multiple first-rounders in a separate deal, it is difficult to see Milwaukee trading and then extending the former All-Star to a big contract this offseason.
Wolves bring in Raptors, while Bucks get draft haul for Giannis
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Thanasis Antetokounmpo
Gary Trent Jr.
Milwaukee Bucks get:
RJ Barrett
Joan Beringer
Rob Dillingham
Julius Randle
Terrence Shannon Jr.
2026 first-round pick (via Raptors)
2029 first-round pick (via Raptors)
2028 first-round swap (via Timberwolves)
2030 first-round swap (via worse of Timberwolves and Spurs for worse of Bucks and Trail Blazers)
2027 second-round pick (via Cavaliers)
2030 second-round pick (via better of Timberwolves and Warriors)
2031 second-round pick (via better of Rockets and Suns)
Toronto Raptors get:
This exercise illustrates how unrealistic it would be for Minnesota to provide enough value for Giannis. The Timberwolves can't trade a first-round pick and have only one unprotected swap to offer. Minnesota would send back quality players, matching Antetokounmpo's salary with starting forwards McDaniels and Randle. And the Timberwolves would clear out their recent first-round picks, none of whom are currently in their rotation.
To generate more draft picks, this deal has the Bucks rerouting McDaniels to Toronto for a pair of first-rounders. McDaniels' modest long-term salary (an average of less than $27 million through 2028-29) would be an ideal fit with the Raptors' young core, as would his 3-and-D skill set. Still, if this was truly all it took to get Antetokounmpo, teams that aren't currently in the mix would surely get involved -- perhaps only to get Antetokounmpo for the short term, similar to Toronto's deal for Kawhi Leonard in 2018 that resulted in the franchise's first championship. -- Pelton
Marks' analysis: Even with Golden State trading everything but the kitchen sink, it is hard to see a trade topping what Milwaukee receives from Minnesota and Toronto. The trade checks the boxes in draft equity, young players on controllable contracts and veterans to build around or move in a separate trade.
Wild card: Philly offers its star rookie
Philadelphia 76ers get:
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Milwaukee Bucks get:
Paul George
VJ Edgecombe
2028 first-round pick (from Clippers)
2030 first-round pick
The 76ers might well decline to discuss Edgecombe in any trade package, given the strong start to the No. 3 pick's career. They could opt to build around Edgecombe and Maxey as a long-term backcourt partnership. But GM Daryl Morey has always chased after stars, and he might not turn down the chance to build a contender with, arguably, three of the best half-dozen players in the East. Assuming they maintain their health, Antetokounmpo, Maxey and Joel Embiid could lead Morey to his first Finals appearance -- and the 76ers to their first conference finals since 2001.
This trade would also drop the 76ers below the luxury tax and open a roster spot to convert one of the team's productive two-way players (Dominick Barlow and Jabari Walker) to a standard contract.
For Milwaukee, the math of this deal works out to Edgecombe and one pick for Antetokounmpo and then a second pick to take back the two years and $110.7 million on George's deal that remain after this season. George is eligible to be traded despite starting a 25-game suspension over the weekend for violating the NBA's drug policy. His absence might actually be a bonus for Milwaukee, which would presumably want to lose as many games as possible over the rest of the season if it trades Antetokounmpo.
That's not as many picks as the Bucks could receive from another trade partner, but Edgecombe is well worth the difference. The 20-year-old rookie is averaging 15.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists and would be a strong player to build around in Milwaukee. -- Kram
Marks' analysis: Do the Bucks value the upside of Edgecombe enough to take back all the money still owed to George? If they do, Edgecombe and two unprotected first-round picks are a strong return for Antetokounmpo. With George on the suspended list, Milwaukee would get financial and roster relief, allowing it to sign a player. For the 76ers, a trio of Maxey, Antetokounmpo and Embiid puts Philadelphia in championship contention now but at the cost of its future.
Wild card: Cavs propose package built around Mobley
Cleveland Cavaliers get:
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Thanasis Antetokounmpo
Milwaukee Bucks get:
Lonzo Ball
Evan Mobley
Jalen Wilson
2031 first-round pick (via Cavaliers)
Brooklyn Nets get:
Max Strus
2030 swap (via Cavaliers)
2032 swap (via Cavaliers)
Mobley, who won Defensive Player of the Year and made All-NBA last season at age 23, has been the centerpiece of Cleveland's future. With the Cavaliers' present looking shakier, would the club consider trading him to pair Antetokounmpo with fellow All-NBA first-team selection Donovan Mitchell?
Because Cleveland is currently over the second luxury tax apron and has no player making as much as Antetokounmpo, a legal trade requires the team to shed at least $14 million in salary. The Cavaliers would accomplish that here by sending Strus to Brooklyn, which can take back more money using cap space. Milwaukee would end up with two players on expiring contracts (Ball has a team option for 2026-27), an unprotected first-round pick in 2031 and a new anchor in Mobley. -- Pelton
Marks' analysis: This trade gets an A for creativity, considering Cleveland's maneuvers to send out enough salary to get under the second apron. Finances aside, Mobley gives Milwaukee a young star to build around. To make this type of trade, however, Cleveland would need the guarantee of Antetokounmpo signing an extension in October.
Marks' verdict: Bucks get their franchise player ... in Edgecombe
Each of the six trades offers a compelling case.
Four unprotected first-round picks from Golden State would be difficult to refuse, especially with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green in the twilight of their careers. The offer from Minnesota and Toronto rebuilds the Bucks' draft equity lost from prior trades while also giving the franchise three former first-round picks and established players in RJ Barrett and Julius Randle to set up a quick turnaround. And adding a former Defensive Player of the Year in Mobley is a solid start in any rebuild.
But only one of these trades results in Milwaukee landing a blue-chip prospect on a rookie contract: the Sixers and Edgecombe.
While keeping Antetokounmpo in the East and absorbing the nearly $111 million owed to George is not appealing, adding Edgecombe, two future unprotected first-round picks and a likely lottery pick in June's draft would set the Bucks' rebuild in the right direction. (Keep in mind: Unless Milwaukee is regaining its future picks from Portland, there is no incentive to completely bottom out.)