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Lions' win probability plummets from 80% to 10.5% after missed call

The Seattle Seahawks beat the Detroit Lions 13-10 on Monday night, but the aftermath of Calvin Johnson's fumble at the 1-yard line on the Lions’ final drive of the game has stirred up a controversy.

The ball was batted out of bounds in the end zone by K.J. Wright, which is illegal per the NFL rulebook. A touchback was called, and the Seahawks gained possession on their own 20-yard line.

If illegal batting had been called, the Lions would have had first-and-goal from the 1 with 1:45 remaining and an almost 81 percent win probability. Instead, the Lions' win probability dropped to 10.5 percent after the touchback, meaning the missed call represented a dramatic shift of over 70 percentage points for the Lions' chance to win the game.

According to NFL FPI, if Seattle had lost this game, its chances of making the playoffs would have dropped to 35 percent, but with a win the Seahawks' playoff chances rose to approximately 60 percent.