Josh Donaldson has had an MVP-caliber season for the Toronto Blue Jays, hitting 41 home runs and leading the major leagues with 122 runs and the American League with 123 RBIs. So how do you pitch to a hitter like this?
Stay away
Start by pitching him away. Donaldson hit .367 on pitches on the inner half this season, best in the American League and behind only Paul Goldschmidt (.375) among all qualified hitters. Donaldson’s 1.149 OPS on such pitches is by far the best in the majors; the next-highest was posted by teammate Jose Bautista at 1.120.
Donaldson hit .236 on pitches on the outer half, which ranked him 120th out of 141 qualified hitters this season. His OPS was a respectable .755, but a far cry from his inner-half prowess.
If you are going to challenge Donaldson inside, make sure the pitch is not in the strike zone. On inner-half pitches in the zone, Donaldson hit .413 this season, best in the AL and third-best in the majors. On pitches out of the zone on the inner half, Donaldson hit .203.
This is especially true in the first inning, in which Donaldson tied for the major league lead with 13 home runs this season. In the first frame, Donaldson saw 45 percent of his pitches on the inner half (42 percent in the rest of games), and he made the most of it.
On inner-half pitches in the zone in the first inning, Donaldson hit .527, including 10 of his 13 home runs. He homered on 18 percent of plate appearances ending with a pitch in that location in the first inning.
Stick to breaking pitches
Donaldson hit .230 against breaking pitches (curveballs/sliders) compared to .326 against all other pitch types.
Not surprisingly, he’s worst when facing a breaking pitch on the outer half, as he hit .168 in at-bats ending with such a pitch this season. That ranked him 131st out of 141 qualified hitters.
Donaldson swung and missed at 40 percent of breaking balls on the outer half, which ranked 66th out of 76 qualified hitters in the AL.
If you do throw Donaldson a fastball, make sure it’s not over the middle third of the plate. He is hitting .420 against fastballs over the middle, the third-highest rate in the AL and 10th in the majors.
Shift data
Though Donaldson can hit the ball to all fields, he has tended to be more of a pull hitter. When putting the ball on the ground, he has pulled it 58 percent of the time in his career. He started this season similarly, as he pulled grounders 56 percent of the time in the first half of the season.
Since the All-Star break, however, Donaldson is pulling the ball on the ground more than ever. In the second half he pulled ground balls 65 percent of the time and has gone the other way 11 percent of the time.