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Royals rally a product of highly unlikely hit, walk

The turning point of the Kansas City Royals' win in Game 2 of the ALDS against the Houston Astros was the at-bat that Eric Hosmer had against Oliver Perez in the sixth inning.

Perez got Hosmer out in a key spot in Game 1 and looked like he was about to do the same in Game 2. But then came a moment that was reminiscent of the never-give-up approach of the Royals in 2014.

Hosmer fell behind in the count 0-2 and looked bad in doing so. He had made an out in each of his four previous plate appearances against Perez.

But Hosmer isn’t a hitter that gives up at-bats. He hit .238 after falling behind 0-2 in the count during the regular season. That doesn’t sound great, but it is 67 points better than the major-league average and ranked 21st among batting-title qualifiers.

Perez threw what was basically a perfect 0-2 pitch, a sweeping slider 5.25 inches off the outside corner. There was reason to think that Perez made a safe choice. During the regular season, he threw 100 pitches off the outside corner to left-handed hitters that our pitch-tracking system deemed “non-competitive” (one in which the chance of contact is slim-to-none) and allowed only one hit.

Somehow, Hosmer reached out, got his bat on it and dunked a pop up into an empty spot in shallow left-center field. That got the Royals within a run and put them in position to come from behind to get the win.

From a broader perspective, how unlikely was that hit? Major-league hitters had an .098 batting average in at-bats ending with a pitch to that spot this season.

This wasn’t the only “unlikely” of the Royals’ rally. The tying run scored on Salvador Perez’s bases-loaded walk.

Perez is the toughest hitter to walk in baseball. He drew only nine unintentional walks in 142 games all season.

Last on the list was Ben Zobrist’s go-ahead hit. The one that came in the seventh inning came in his 74th postseason at-bat. It was his first career postseason go-ahead hit.