Who's the leading candidate to be NLCS MVP in 2016?
Let's explore the possibilities from the Chicago Cubs perspective, since they now have a 3-2 series lead.
Baez has been a star at bat and in the field. He went 1-for-10 in the 2015 NLCS against the Mets but is hitting .368 with four doubles and five RBIs through five games against the Dodgers.
As a rookie in 2014, Baez was lured into bad results on pitches in the lower half of the strike zone or below the knees, hitting .197 against pitches in that area. He upped that to .236 in a brief stint in 2015, then took a big jump to .277 this season. In the LCS, he's 6-for-13 in at-bats ending with a lower-half (or below) pitch.
The case for Russell is that he had two of the biggest hits of the series, albeit in what ended up being easy victories.
Russell's two-run home run in the sixth inning of Game 5 upped the Cubs' win probability by nearly 26 percentage points (from 53 to 79 percent overall).
His two-run home run in Game 4 turned a 2-0 game into a 4-0 game and increased the Cubs' win probability by 10 percentage points (to 91 percent).
Two good days make a world of difference for Russell, who is now hitting .263 in this series. He's 5-for-10 in the last two games this postseason after going 1-for-24 in the first seven.
Lester was in command again for seven innings in Game 5. In 13 innings this postseason, he has given up two runs and nine hits. He has made four starts against the Dodgers this season, in which he has pitched 28 innings with an 0.96 ERA.
Lester had a good argument for postseason MVP once before. He went 2-0 with an 0.59 ERA in two starts in the 2013 World Series for the Red Sox against the Cardinals. But he couldn't compete with David Ortiz, who hit .688.
Lester is making a case to be considered among the best postseason pitchers of the wild-card era. His 2.50 postseason ERA ranks third among the 41 pitchers who have made at least 10 postseason starts since 1995, trailing only Madison Bumgarner (2.11) and Curt Schilling (2.12).
The alternative possibility
If the series turns the other way, there's a good chance on the MVP being Game 6 starter Clayton Kershaw, potential Game 7 starter Rich Hill, or both.
The Cubs are 4-for-43 (.093 batting average) with no extra-base hits against those two pitchers in this series. They are hitting .287 with 18 extra-base hits against everyone else.