It has been a busy couple of days for top-of-the-order hitters moving to NL contenders, with the St. Louis Cardinals reportedly signing free agent Dexter Fowler away from the Cubs and the Washington Nationals trading for Adam Eaton. Each ranked as a high-end outfielder in 2016. Fowler had the first 4-WAR season of his career. Eaton, playing right field, turned in a 6-WAR season with the help of some outstanding defensive play.
The Fowler move was a counterpunch for the Cardinals in a couple of respects. With Eaton off the board, it reduced their number of outfield options. And getting Fowler meant helping themselves while taking away a key player from a division rival.
And though there are many difference between the two players, there are a number of ways in which the Cardinals basically got a match for Eaton (contracts notwithstanding).
Table-setting
In the early part of Fowler’s career, he fared poorly when leading off an inning, posting on-base percentages of .326, .302 and .317 from 2009 to 2011. But then something clicked and the numbers got considerably better.
In the last five seasons, his on-base percentage when leading off an inning has been .439 or better three times. Even when it dropped, his two lowest marks were .357 in 2015 and .358 in 2012.
In 2016, he had a .328/.439/.561 slash line when leading off an inning. Fowler did more than get on base in the first inning of Game 7 of the World Series. He homered to lead off the game.
Eaton was comparable. He slash-lined .341/.409/.578 with 10 home runs when leading off an inning in 2016. Eaton had consistently been a .350 to .360 on-base percentage player in those situations the previous three seasons. His 10 home runs when leading off an inning were three more than he had in the previous two seasons combined.
Baserunning
Both Fowler and Eaton are good, but not elite, baserunners. Fowler stole 13 bases in 17 attempts last season. He has averaged 15 steals the last three seasons and has an eight-season streak of at least 10 stolen bases. Fowler had a four-season streak of at least 10 triples in Colorado. At age 30, he’s slowed down a little. He had 15 triples combined the last two seasons for the Cubs.
Eaton stole 14 bases in 19 attempts in 2016. He is averaging 16 steals per season the last three seasons. Eaton led the AL in triples in two of the last three seasons. His 28 triples the last three seasons is the most in the majors.
FanGraphs' baserunning metric, which takes into account taking extra bases on hits in addition to base stealing, gives Fowler an edge. He ranked sixth in the NL in that stat. Eaton's total would have ranked 13th in the NL.
Projected value
The Steamer projection system used by FanGraphs has the players reasonably close, with Eaton at 3.6 WAR for 2017 and Fowler at 3 WAR.
In other words, though both systems are skeptical about these players duplicating their 2016 success, Fowler and Eaton still provide reasonable to modest value to the teams that obtained them.