It's Day 4 of the pre-spring training power rankings! Read them and rejoice. Or weep. We have three AL East teams included in this edition, which shows how close that division race looks to be. We're also entering playoff territory, including one team that will be a controversial playoff pick.
12. Boston Red Sox
Big offseason moves: Signed 3B Pablo Sandoval; signed LF Hanley Ramirez; acquired RHP Rick Porcello from the Tigers for OF Yoenis Cespedes, RHP Alex Wilson and LHP Gabe Speier; acquired LHP Wade Miley from the Diamondbacks for RHP Rubby De La Rosa, RHP Allen Webster and SS Raymel Flores; signed RHP Justin Masterson; acquired C Ryan Hanigan from the Padres for 3B Will Middlebrooks; acquired LHP Robbie Ross from the Rangers for RHP Anthony Ranaudo; acquired RHP Anthony Varvaro from the Braves; re-signed LHP Craig Breslow.
Most intriguing player: I'm going with Mookie Betts. Great name, great game. He's going to hit for a high average and get on base and steal bases and should be Boston's regular leadoff hitter. As Gordon Edes noted, Betts has the highest projected WAR via Baseball Prospectus of any player on the team. "You would think Sox fans would be cautious about anointing a rookie a star before his time," Gordon wrote, "especially after the struggles of [Xander] Bogaerts and [Jackie] Bradley, but Betts' impressive debut last summer has folks believing that good times will continue in 2015. Few players mark progress in a straight line, but that's the expectation for Mookie -- and it's not just the fans."
Due for a better year: Bogaerts got off to a great start in his rookie season, hitting .304/.397/.438 through May but then cratered, right about the time he moved from shortstop to third base to accommodate Stephen Drew. He's back at shortstop, just 22 years old, and still projects as a future All-Star.
Due for a worse year: David Ortiz finished fifth in the AL in home runs, sixth in RBIs and ninth in slugging percentage, although his average did drop to .263 after topping .300 the previous three seasons. But it was also his most home runs and RBIs since 2007. He's 39. He's going to get old one of these years, right?
I'm just the messenger: The Red Sox don't have an ace, which everybody has pointed out a gazillion times, although Clay Buchholz has pitched like one at times. But the question most of the pundits won't answer: Do you need an ace? Let's check all the playoff teams from the past three seasons to see the pitcher with the highest WAR on the team (via Baseball-Reference).
2014
Nationals -- Tanner Roark (5.1)
Dodgers -- Clayton Kershaw (7.5)
Cardinals -- Adam Wainwright (6.1)
Pirates -- Tony Watson/Edinson Volquez (2.5)
Giants -- Madison Bumgarner (4.0)
Angels -- Garrett Richards (4.4)
Orioles -- Zach Britton (2.5)
Tigers -- Max Scherzer (6.0)
Royals -- Wade Davis (3.7)
Athletics -- Jon Lester (4.5)*
* Total with Red Sox and Athletics.
Well, pretty interesting. We had three relievers who led their teams in WAR. The Orioles and Pirates made the playoffs without a 3-WAR starter -- and the Orioles won 96 games.
2013
Cardinals -- Adam Wainwright (6.2)
Braves -- Kris Medlen/Craig Kimbrel (3.3)
Pirates -- Francisco Liriano (3.0)
Dodgers -- Clayton Kershaw (7.8)
Reds -- Mat Latos (3.8)
Red Sox -- Clay Buchholz (4.3)
A's -- Bartolo Colon (5.0)
Tigers -- Max Scherzer (6.7)
Indians -- Justin Masterson (3.4)
Rays -- Alex Cobb (3.9)
Worth noting are Johnny Cueto of the Reds and David Price of the Rays are widely considered aces, but both missed time in 2013 and didn't lead their staffs in WAR. The Pirates won 94 games without a dominant starter and Buchholz was great (1.74 ERA) but made just 16 starts.
2012
Nationals -- Gio Gonzalez (4.9)
Reds -- Johnny Cueto (5.9)
Giants -- Matt Cain (3.9)
Braves -- Kris Medlen (4.5)
Cardinals -- Kyle Lohse (4.3)
Yankees -- Hiroki Kuroda (5.5)
A's -- Jarrod Parker (3.9)
Orioles -- Miguel Gonzalez (3.1)
Rangers -- Matt Harrison (6.1)
Tigers -- Justin Verlander (7.8)
Nobody had a sub-3 WAR pitcher, but some of these guys are hardly pitchers you would classify as aces. Big picture: No rule of thumb here. An ace obviously helps but isn't necessary. Porcello is coming off of a 3.43 ERA/4.0-WAR season. Miley had a 3.5-WAR season in 2012, although his walk rate has since doubled. Buchholz has been good at times and bad times. There's potential here that the depth plays out. But there's also potential that Masterson is bad again, Buchholz can't stay healthy, Miley is mediocre and Porcello's 2014 was simply a peak season.
The final word: The projection systems like the Red Sox. FanGraphs has them as the best team in the AL East. Baseball Prospectus has them as the best team in the AL East. Mainly, the Red Sox have solid depth across the roster, and that's important. You've seen me stressing that through these articles. But I do worry about the lack of a big gun in the rotation, and I'm not completely sold on this ground ball group of starters. I worry about Ortiz's age and Dustin Pedroia's ability to stay on the field and Ramirez's ability to adjust to left and stay on the field. Sandoval is a big name but not really a big star. It's a good team. Could easily win 90 to 95 games. But I'm picking the Red Sox third in the division.
Prediction: 84-78
11. Big offseason moves: Lost 3B Pablo Sandoval to free agency; re-signed RHPs Jake Peavy, Sergio Romo and Ryan Vogelsong; acquired 3B Casey McGehee from the Marlins; lost OF Michael Morse to free agency; signed OF Norichika Aoki.
Most intriguing player: Madison Bumgarner. Can he replicate his postseason dominance over 30-something starts? Will the Giants handle him differently early in the season after pitching 270 innings between the regular season and postseason in 2014? Will he hit four home runs again?
Due for a better year: Brandon Belt played just 61 games and hit just .243. But he did crack 12 home runs in 214 at-bats, indicating he could hit 20 to 25 home runs if he stays on the field.
Due for a worse year: Joe Panik was a career .293 hitter in the minors but hit .305 with the Giants. He does put the ball in play, but don't expect another .300 season -- especially if he tries to add some power to his game.
I'm just the messenger: My least favorite acquisition of the offseason was McGehee. The Giants do love their vets. McGehee had an acceptable year with the Marlins, mainly because of an above-average OBP. But buried in that was a lack of power (four home runs), a ton of double plays hit into (31) and a lack of range at third. If he doesn't hit .287 again, his value dips to replacement level and the Giants will be looking for a different third baseman.
The final word: It was obviously a bit of a strange offseason for the champs, who were reportedly interested in signing Jon Lester and then James Shields, but failed to bring either guy to San Francisco, instead re-signing Peavy and Vogelsong and hoping Matt Cain returns from his elbow surgery. In analyzing the Giants, I'm left wondering: How they are going to get better? And they barely made the playoffs last year. The offense should be solid with Buster Posey, Hunter Pence and an improved Belt. Brandon Crawford is a superb defender at short and the bullpen should once again be deep and effective. But the rotation behind Bumgarner is shaky: Cain's health, Tim Hudson's age, Tim Lincecum's ineffectiveness and Peavy's age/health are all legitimate issues. I don't foresee a sub-.500 season like 2013, but I do see the Dodgers as the clear favorite in the NL West.
Prediction: 85-77
10. New York Mets
Big offseason moves: Signed OF/1B Michael Cuddyer; signed OF John Mayberry Jr.; did not acquire Troy Tulowitzki, Ozzie Smith or Honus Wagner.
Most intriguing player: Matt Harvey. Back from Tommy John surgery, Harvey was as good as any pitcher in baseball in 2013 before his injury. He'll be ready Opening Day. But will he be Matt Harvey, Cy Young contender?
Due for a better year: David Wright played through a shoulder problem -- a bruised rotator cuff that sapped his power and finally forced him to shut things down in September. From 2009 to 2013, he hit .323/.412/.536 against fastballs; in 2014, he hit .281/.337/.363. A healthy Wright should be worth three to four extra wins for the Mets.
Due for a worse year: I'll take the under on Lucas Duda hitting 30 home runs again. Although I think he'll come close and be a pretty valuable contributor. It's one reason I like the Mets -- the lack of obvious decline candidates.
I'm just the messenger: The problem with the Cuddyer signing is obvious: He doesn't have much range in right field, he's coming of a season in which he played just 49 games and while he hit .332 and .331 the past two seasons, he'd never hit .300 before going to the Rockies. And he turns 36 in March. The Mets signed Cuddyer and then apparently the Wilpons ran out of money because Sandy Alderson could have gone on vacation the rest of the winter.
The final word: And yet ... I'm picking the Mets to win a wild card! My gut says either the Mets or the Marlins win a wild card, thanks in part to how bad the Phillies and Braves may be. I like the Mets better because of the depth in the rotation. Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom is the real deal and Zack Wheeler has the arm strength and now the experience to take a leap forward. Obviously, a lot hinges on the comeback of Harvey and return to form of Wright. Everybody's concerned about Wilmer Flores at shortstop, but he doesn't project to be as terrible as everyone thinks. Anyway, every year there's at least one team that climbs from under .500 into the postseason (actually, there were two last season and three in 2013). The Mets are my pick for 2015.
Prediction: 86-76
9. Big offseason moves: Lost OFs Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis and LHP Andrew Miller via free agency; re-signed DH Delmon Young; acquired OF Travis Snider from the Pirates; signed LHP Wesley Wright; and GM Dan Duquette flirted with taking over as president of the Blue Jays.
Most intriguing player: Manny Machado. He's had two knee surgeries in two seasons, one on each knee. The Orioles need his defense and his bat.
Due for a better year: Chris Davis will miss Opening Day due to the final game of his PED suspension and then settle back in at first base, where he may not hit 53 home runs and drive in 138 runs again, but should hit much better than .196/.300/.404.
Due for a worse year: Steve Pearce was a 31-year-old journeyman whom the Orioles actually released April 27 and then re-signed two days later when Davis went on the DL with an oblique injury. Pearce hit .293/.373/.556 with 21 home runs in 338 at-bats, after hitting 17 in 743 previous major league at-bats. It may not be a complete fluke; he shortened his stride, which worked to shorten his swing and tap into the power he showed early in his minor league career (33 home runs in 2007). With the departure of Cruz, Pearce will get a chance to play every day, probably shuttling between DH and the outfield.
I'm just the messenger: Orioles fans are a little sensitive about this, because they have won 96, 85 and 93 games the past three seasons: The analytics don't care much for the O's, especially the starting rotation. Basically, the metrics argue that the Orioles' collection of No. 3 and No. 4 starters isn't that good. That even though the Orioles were fifth in the AL in ERA last season, they were just 11th in strikeout percentage and 13th in strikeout-to-walk ratio. Just because the rotation was solid in 2014 doesn't mean it will be similarly effective in 2015, given the middling peripherals. FanGraphs forecasts the Orioles finishing last in the AL East, under .500. Baseball Prospectus forecasts them finishing last in the AL East, under .500. You can disagree with the computers, but that's what the computers say.
The final word: But I'm not a computer! I like the O's to finish above .500. If Machado returns and Matt Wieters gets back behind the plate on a regular basis, that will help; but even if he doesn't, Caleb Joseph threw out a league-leading 40 percent of base stealers. They lose Cruz's power but Davis will have a better year. And, like the Red Sox, maybe the rotation lacks an ace, but it has depth -- especially if Kevin Gausman can produce 30 starts in his first full season. Don't sleep on Chris Tillman, who had a 2.33 ERA in the second half with a much-improved strikeout rate. The defense and bullpen are both solid and no manager is more prepared than Buck Showalter.
Prediction: 86-76
8. Big offseason moves: Traded 2B Howie Kendrick to the Dodgers for LHP Andrew Heaney; acquired OF Matt Joyce from the Rays for RHP Kevin Jepsen; acquired RHP Nick Tropeano and C Carlos Perez from the Astros for C Hank Conger; signed Cuban INF Roberto Baldoquin; acquired 2B Josh Rutledge from the Rockies for RHP Jairo Diaz.
Most intriguing player: Mike Trout. He won the MVP award with his worst season. Which tells you how good he is. But will he learn to adjust to all those high fastballs he'll be seeing after pitchers learned his weakness?
Due for a better year: No obvious candidate. I’d suggest Josh Hamilton but he’s already injured, out six to eight weeks after surgery on his shoulder. That puts him ready right around Opening Day. But even if he’s ready, will he hit?
Due for a worse year: Matt Shoemaker was one of the biggest surprises in the majors, a pitcher with uninspiring minor league numbers who made the team out of spring training but was sent down after three relief appearances. Called back up in May to join the rotation, Shoemaker went 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA, including a 1.87 ERA in the second half as the Angels surged past the A’s. I think he’ll be pretty good thanks to a terrific splitter/changeup that batters hit just .160 against with one home run in 173 plate appearances, but I’m not sure he’s this good.
I'm just the messenger: This is where I’m supposed to say something bad. OK, the Howie Kendrick trade made sense because they picked up young left-hander Andrew Heaney, who has potential to develop into a No. 2-type starter. The Angels needed rotation depth, preferably an inexpensive young starter, but losing Kendrick does hurt in the short term as the team lacks an obvious quality replacement; they did pick up Rutledge, although keep an eye on Cuban free agent Roberto Baldoquin. More than anything, however, we're just looking at regression: You win 98 games because a lot of things go right; not as many things will likely go right in 2015.
The final word: The Angels probably have the highest floor of any team in the American League. They’re a safe bet to finish over .500. The lineup has Trout, a still-effective Albert Pujols and solid depth with underrated players such as Kole Calhoun and Chris Iannetta. There’s a little more uncertainty in the rotation with Shoemaker, Garrett Richards coming back from his knee injury, the wear and tear on Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson’s control issues. In the end, I see the Angels returning to the postseason and battling the Mariners in a tough AL West.
Prediction: 87-75
7. Big offseason moves: Acquired 3B Josh Donaldson from the A's for 3B Brett Lawrie, RHP Kendall Graveman, LHP Sean Nolin and SS Franklin Barreto; signed C Russell Martin; acquired OF Michael Saunders from the Mariners for LHP J.A. Happ; acquired RHP Marco Estrada from the Brewers for 1B Adam Lind; signed 1B Justin Smoak; acquired 2B Devon Travis from the Tigers for OF Anthony Gose; lost OFs Melky Cabrera and Colby Rasmus and RHPs Casey Janssen and Brandon Morrow via free agency; invited IF Munenori Kawasaki to spring training. Hey, he's a fan favorite!
Most intriguing player: Donaldson comes over in a blockbuster deal, and I can't wait to see how the middle of the order fares with Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Donaldson.
Due for a better year: This is how much I like Marcus Stroman. After going 11-6 with a 3.65 ERA as a rookie, he's going to be even better as a sophomore.
Due for a worse year: Martin signed a five-year, $82 million contract (heavily backloaded) and while I like the acquisition, he's coming off the best offensive season of his career with a .402 OBP that was fueled by a .290 batting average after hitting .211 and .226 the previous two seasons.
I'm just the messenger: For a contending team, the Jays enter spring with some questions to answer: Is Dalton Pompey ready to take over center field after starting 2014 in Class A? Who wins the second-base job? Who's the closer? Is Smoak really going to play regularly at first base? Is Stroman ready to take over as staff ace? How much of a concern is Jose Reyes' declining defense? Usually, the team you pick to win a division doesn't come with so many unknowns.
The final word: The Jays have fooled us before. In 2013, they were a popular World Series pick but went 74-88. Last season, they went 21-9 in May and led the division by six games in early June before stumbling. But I love the Donaldson and Martin pickups, and don't sleep on Saunders. People question the rotation, but I do believe in Stroman and expect Drew Hutchison to improve as well. Maybe they sign Rafael Soriano to close or maybe they give the job to Aaron Sanchez, who came up and allowed just 14 hits in 33 innings. I get that you don't want to give up on Sanchez as a starter, but he fills a need in the bullpen right now. The Jays will score plenty of runs, maybe the most in the league. The longest playoff drought in the majors ends.
Prediction: 87-75