Buster Olney wrote Tuesday about how the Rangers might replace Yu Darvish if he needs Tommy John surgery. Olney speculates that they could look to the trade market.
Minus Darvish, the Texas rotation likely stacks up like this:
1. Derek Holland (although he won't pitch in a spring game until March 14)
3. Colby Lewis
5. Nick Martinez/Nick Tepesch/Anthony Ranaudo
Another possibility is Alex "Chi Chi" Gonzalez, a right-hander Keith Law ranked No. 86 on his top 100 prospects list. Law wrote that Gonzalez, the 23rd overall pick in 2013 out of Oral Roberts, "will sit 90-94 with good sink, but he has a major league out pitch in his cutter that makes him so effective, including a 55 percent ground-ball rate across two levels last year."
Gonzalez reached Double-A last season, making 14 starts and posting a 2.71 ERA. The strikeout rate wasn't anything special -- 113 in 138 innings over two levels -- but as Law writes, he can get away with that if he's inducing a lot of ground balls. The Rangers may want to give him some time in Triple-A, but he's a likely improvement over Martinez or Tepesch and probably Lewis and Detwiler as well.
Although a season-ending injury to Darvish would be a crushing blow to the Rangers, some of the other early spring injuries don't appear as significant ... at least not yet.
Hunter Pence, Giants, out six to eight weeks with a broken forearm. This means he could miss the first month of the season. Norichika Aoki was signed for outfield insurance, so he would slot in alongside Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco in what would be the least powerful outfield trio in the league. The other issue is it suddenly makes the Giants very left-handed with Aoki, Blanco, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik and Brandon Crawford, with only the switch-hitting Pagan, Buster Posey and Casey McGehee from the right side. Juan Perez could get some outfield starts against lefties, but he's not much of a hitter, or Posey could slide over to first base. Still, it's only a month and Aoki is a capable backup, so the actual loss to the Giants is minor, maybe one win at most.
Denard Span, Nationals, out at least four to six weeks after core surgery. Although the injury could linger -- Justin Verlander had core surgery after the 2013 season and struggled all of 2014 -- we're looking at only a few games in April. The Nationals traded outfielder Steven Souza, who hit .350/.432/.590 at Triple-A because they also have Michael Taylor, No. 71 on Law's prospects list. This isn't the Michael Taylor who came up with the A's but a 23-year-old (24 at the end of March) who hit .313/.396/.539 at Double-A (with a few additional games in Triple-A and the majors). Overall, he hit 23 home runs with 37 steals in the minors. Strikeouts are his big issue, and ZiPS projects him at .228/.291/.370 in the majors. Still, there's the potential that everything clicks and he's better than that and provides as much offense as Span. Nate McLouth is still around, although he hit .173 last year and Bryce Harper could play center if needed. Tony Gwynn Jr. is a non-roster invitee to camp, a defense-only solution if the Nats wish to go that route.
Cliff Lee, Phillies, sore elbow. Where's Kyle Kendrick when you need him? If Lee's injury proves serious, it could open up a rotation spot for Miguel Gonzalez, a Cuban who was expected to compete for a rotation job last year but ended up pitching most of the season in relief in the minors. Chad Billingsley is trying to come back from Tommy John and flexor tendon surgeries after missing most of the past two seasons, but he's not expected to be ready until late April at the earliest. Kevin Slowey and Jeanmar Gomez are in camp as non-roster guys, so one of them could crack the rotation by default. That's probably not good news for the Phillies.
Garrett Richards, Angels, knee surgery. Richards isn't expected back until late April after hurting his knee late last August. Behind Jered Weaver, Matt Shoemaker and C.J. Wilson, the Angels have Hector Santiago and offseason acquisitions Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano. Richards' delayed start would seem to all but ensure Heaney, No. 58 on Law's list, starts the season in the rotation. Acquired for Howie Kendrick, he's a polished lefty who struggled a bit in his initial call-up with the Marlins but should be fine as a back-end starter and maybe better if he limits the home runs.
Drew Smyly, Rays, shut down with shoulder tendinitis. So much for my deep sleeper Cy Young candidate. Smyly is out indefinitely, meaning he likely won't be ready for the start of the season. With Matt Moore hoping for a June/July return from Tommy John surgery, the Tampa rotation would look like Alex Cobb, Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi with Nate Karns, Alex Colome and Burch Smith battling for the final two slots. Those three guys all have good arms but mixed results in the minors. Rotation depth, usually a strength for the Rays, suddenly looks a little thin.
Kenley Jansen, Dodgers, out until at least late April after foot surgery. Joel Peralta or Brandon League are the candidates to close; neither is an enticing option. This could definitely cost the Dodgers an extra blown save or two and maybe an additional couple of losses.
Gavin Floyd, Indians, MRI on sore elbow. We can't be too surprised at this considering Floyd has rarely been healthy in recent seasons. I didn't consider Floyd one of the team's top five starters entering camp, so going to T.J. House or Zach McAllister may actually be an improvement, not a drop-off.