<
>

Rangers should consider trading Beltre

Will the Rangers trade Adrian Beltre -- who will be a free agent after 2016 -- to a contender? Cooper Neill/Getty Images

It's official: Yu Darvish will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss all of 2015. It's a big loss for both the Rangers and for fans; if you didn't enjoy watching Darvish pitch, you don't like baseball. As we awaited news of his fate the past few days, I wondered if this worst-case scenario would mean that Rangers general manager Jon Daniels would consider trading Adrian Beltre. Joe Sheehan suggested the same thing Thursday in his newsletter:

The next challenge for Daniels will be a painful one -- exploring trade possibilities for Beltre, a free agent after 2016 who could make a difference right now to a dozen teams. Beltre has limited no-trade protection, and would gain full veto rights after the 2015 season as a 10-and-five player. If the Rangers don't rip through April, they have to explore the market for Beltre. At 2/34 for a four-win player, Beltre would have no shortage of suitors. Picture the Nationals with Beltre at third and Anthony Rendon back at second, or the Pirates with Beltre at third and Josh Harrison back in a utility role. If the Rangers aren't going to win this year -- the Rangers aren't going to win this year -- they need to trade Beltre. This is a .500 team in a division and a league where that simply won't be good enough.

I'm not even sure the Rangers are a .500 team now. To get there, they'll need big bounce-back seasons from Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo, rapid improvement from Rougned Odor and a lot to go right in the rotation and bullpen. Minus Darvish, the rotation currently includes Derek Holland, Yovani Gallardo, Colby Lewis and probably Ross Detwiler, plus somebody from the Nick Tepesch/Nick Martinez/Matt Harrison/Anthony Ranaudo group. And Holland has yet to pitch because of shoulder soreness, Harrison is trying to become the first major leaguer to return from lower-lumbar spinal-fusion surgery and has yet to throw off a mound and Ranaudo left Thursday's game with discomfort in his right arm. And Gallardo -- who moved to the American League after seeing his strikeout rate decline last year with the Brewers -- is a risky bet.

It seems unlikely that the Rangers will be in the same class as the Angels and Mariners, and maybe not even the A's and Astros. They will have to start the season with Beltre and see if the Beltre/Fielder/Choo trio can carry the offense but, as Sheehan writes, if they're way back in June, then the Rangers have to consider dealing their future Hall of Famer.

Beltre was still one of the best players in the American League in 2014, ranking third in Baseball-Reference WAR among AL position players and sixth in FanGraphs WAR. But he does turn 36 in April, his defensive metrics -- while still good -- have declined a bit and after hitting 30 home runs the previous three seasons, he dropped to 19 in 2014. To keep Beltre past 2016, you're looking at his age-38 seasons and beyond. As Branch Rickey famously said, better to trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late.

The Rangers have Joey Gallo, No. 11 on Keith Law's top 100 prospects list after slugging 42 home runs in the minors, waiting to play third base, if not sometime this season then certainly in 2016. He has enough glove to play the position, so while the Rangers could always move him to first base and Fielder to designated hitter, they would prefer to keep Gallo at third base.

Sheehan mentioned the Nationals and Pirates as potential suitors for Beltre, but what about the Padres? The Padres could offer a package built around Wil Myers and Matt Wisler, moving Cameron Maybin or Will Venable into center, improving the team's defense and infield. Or the White Sox, who desperately need a third baseman and are sleeper contenders. The Giants are banking on Casey McGehee, although they may lack the prospects to get Beltre.

Anyway, there would obviously be interest. If it's going to be another lost season for the Rangers, trading Beltre may ultimately be necessary as they re-stock talent for 2016 and beyond.