The Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Yankees have all spoken to the Miami Marlins about Jose Fernandez, according to Jayson Stark's report. Those teams make sense. They've been looking for a starting pitcher and possess good-to-strong farm systems with prospects in the upper minors who the Marlins would want: pitcher Julio Urias (Dodgers); pitchers Archie Bradley, Aaron Blair and Braden Shipley (Diamondbacks); outfielder Aaron Judge and catcher Gary Sanchez (Yankees). The Marlins will also reportedly want some young major leaguers, although I can't see the D-backs trading A.J. Pollock as part of a Fernandez deal, even if they do have outfield depth.
But who is the mystery team? And are the Marlins simply gauging Fernandez's value or actually looking to trade their young right-hander? Let's consider the possibilities:
1. Houston Astros. They certainly make sense. Improving the bullpen is their No. 1 priority, but they've also indicated they'd like to add another starter. The Astros have a deep farm system with both pitching and position player prospects. The Marlins would certainly ask for a young starter like Lance McCullers or Vincent Velasquez -- or both -- from the major league roster. The Astros also have outfield depth with Preston Tucker and Jake Marisnick (who could play center field if the Marlins also trade Marcell Ozuna). The Marlins may ask for power-hitting first baseman A.J. Reed -- who reached Double-A last year -- but the Astros need a first baseman with the non-tender of Chris Carter and Reed currently is their best bet there. The Astros also have enticing prospects in the lower minors like Alex Bregman and Daz Cameron, first-round picks in 2015.
2. St. Louis Cardinals. We know they were in big on pursuit of David Price, they lost John Lackey to the Cubs and they lost Lance Lynn for the season after Tommy John surgery. Even with the return of Adam Wainwright, they're looking for a starter, and they're unlikely to bid on Johnny Cueto considering the bad blood between Cueto and the Cards. So if they want a top-line starter, Fernandez fits. A trade with the Cardinals may center on major league players like outfielders Stephen Piscotty or Randal Grichuk, and you know the Marlins will want pitcher Carlos Martinez. The Cards could part with an outfielder and then re-sign Jason Heyward. The Cards also have some bullpen depth in Sam Tuivailala and back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher prospects like Marco Gonzalez and Tim Cooney.
3. Washington Nationals. They lost Jordan Zimmermann to the Tigers, Doug Fister is a free agent and Stephen Strasburg is a free agent after 2016. Sounds like they may want to add a young, controllable starter. Would the Nationals trade six years of Lucas Giolito, maybe the top pitching prospect in the minors, for three years of Fernandez? The big right-handed Giolito would have to be the headliner the Marlins get in return.
4. Chicago Cubs. If the Marlins believe Christian Yelich can play center field -- and maybe they do, hence the shopping of Ozuna -- they could ask for Kyle Schwarber or Jorge Soler plus others (Javier Baez?) and stick one of them in left field. The Cubs then sign Heyward, Justin Upton or Alex Gordon.
5. Minnesota Twins. No, they're not going to trade Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton, which means the Marlins would want pitcher Jose Berrios, who had a 2.87 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A with more than a strikeout per inning, and outfielder/first baseman Max Kepler, he of the .416 OBP in Double-A. The Twins could also include Trevor Plouffe, allowing the Marlins to shop Martin Prado or move him to left field. Sano then slides into his natural position of third base instead of being forced into the outfield. The Twins haven't made a splashy trade or free-agent signing in years. Maybe it's time.