The trade: The Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago White Sox pulled off the rare, but always beloved three-team trade, with Todd Frazier going to the White Sox as the big name. Let's break it down like this:
White Sox: Acquire Frazier; trade away RHP Frankie Montas, 2B Micah Johnson, OF Trayce Thompson.
Dodgers: Acquire Montas, Johnson and Thompson; trade away 2B Jose Peraza, OF Scott Schebler, IF/OF Brandon Dixon.
Reds: Acquire Peraza, Schebler, Dixon; trade away Frazier.
Got that?
I just wrote about 10 players who need to be traded with Frazier topping the list. The White Sox just acquired Brett Lawrie from the A's, but he will now move to second base with Frazier taking over at third. Both should be significant upgrades over what the White Sox got from those positions in 2015, when they ranked last in the majors in wOBA at both second and third base.
Frazier and Lawrie are both under team control for two more seasons and won't be extraordinarily expensive. Did the White Sox give up too much? MLB.com recently ranked Montas the team's No. 3 prospect and Johnson the team's No. 5 prospect. Thompson -- the brother of NBA star Klay Thompson -- dazzled in his big-league debut, hitting .295/.363/.533 with five home runs in 122 at-bats. He's not that good; Thompson will be 25 in March and hit just .260/.304/.441 in Triple-A. He projects as a right-handed platoon bat, although possibly a very good one. Montas spent most of 2015 in Double-A, where he posted a 2.97 ERA and fanned 108 in 112 innings. He has a huge fastball but many speculate he ultimately ends up in relief. Johnson is a second baseman with a good batting record in the minors and some speed, but struggled at the plate and defensively in a 30-game stint in the majors.
Anyway, I don't think the White Sox gave up any big upside talent here, unless Montas puts it together and develops as a starter.
That said, I like the Dodgers' return better than what the Reds got. Peraza is the primary prospect the Reds acquired. He has a .302 career average in the minors, but doesn't walk and has no power. He hit .293/.316/.378 in Triple-A -- most of that with the Braves, before he was traded to the Dodgers -- and stole 33 bases, but his value is going to rest in his ability to hit for average and defense. He's still very young -- doesn't turn 22 until April -- but I'm not sure the bat is ever going to provide much value at the major league level. The Reds could also move him back to shortstop, where he played earlier in his minor-league career, although the Reds will probably slot him at second (and trade Brandon Phillips), Eugenio Suarez at third and keep Zack Cozart at short.
Schebler is a 25-year-old left-handed hitter who hit .241/.322/.410 at Oklahoma City; he had better numbers in Double-A, but he's a backup outfielder at best. Dixon is a 24-year-old who hit well at Rancho Cucamonga, but everyone hits well there. He struggled after a promotion to Double-A and finished with 144 strikeouts and 28 walks. He didn't rank in MLB.com's top 30 Dodgers prospects. So from the Reds' perspective, Peraza has to develop to make this deal work for them.
Frankly, I'm not sure why the Reds didn't just trade Frazier to the White Sox for their trio. Obviously, the Reds' scouts and front office rate Peraza highly.
The reason: In the end, the White Sox -- as they do -- decided to try and compete in 2016, trying to build around Chris Sale and Jose Abreu while they are in their primes. Frazier and Lawrie aren't necessarily solutions to their OBP issues (second-worst in the American League) but should provide more power to a lineup that ranked last in the AL in home runs and runs.
Second base
White Sox: .222/.275/.305
Lawrie: .260/.299/.407
Third base
White Sox: .226/.277/.345
Frazier: .255/.309/.498
Frazier and Lawrie should be about six wins better than what the Sox got from second and third in 2015, and Frazier moves from one great home run park to another, so he shouldn't lose much in the power department. The White Sox are better, and might be competitive in the AL Central, but I think they're still a couple of bats away unless Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche have bounce-back seasons. I'd also like them to punt on the awful Avisail Garcia and find a better right fielder.
The impact: The White Sox lineup now looks something like this:
CF Adam Eaton
LF Cabrera
1B Abreu
3B Frazier
DH LaRoche
2B Lawrie
RF Garcia
What's interesting is how this sets things up for the Dodgers. They now have two right-handed platoon bats in the outfield in Thompson and Scott Van Slyke. Thompson can play center, so he makes for a great platoon with Joc Pederson, if the Dodgers want to make Pederson a platoon guy this early in his career. They still have Yasiel Puig. To me, this opens the door for either dumping Carl Crawford or trading Andre Ethier, since you are not going to carry six outfielders. Either is coming off a good season at the plate and is down to two years and $38 million left on his contract, so maybe a team -- like the Orioles -- that needs a corner outfielder will make a deal, especially if the Dodgers pick up some of the money.
The Dodgers are also stockpiling more young, inexpensive talent, and basically flipping Peraza for three cost-controlled guys. (Don't be surprised if they simply put Montas in the bullpen right away.) This is the long game: They will continue to compete in the ensuing years while simultaneously cutting salaries to gear up for the big free-agency year that comes after the 2018 season. Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Jose Fernandez, Andrew McCutchen, Dallas Keuchel and Matt Harvey are all looming free agents; Jason Heyward, David Price and some guy named Clayton Kershaw have opt-out clauses.
Collect young talent now ... and then reinforce in the future.